Game of the month

[CappinTerp]

sf -115 - cueto/espino.................................. ...................bol

[2daBank]

Gl buddy

[CappinTerp]

Gl buddy

Thank you my friend....I am stepping out on this one!!

[trobin31]

On this too, but split 1st 5 innings and full game. Buster posey riding pine makes me nervous.

[CappinTerp]

On this too, but split 1st 5 innings and full game. Buster posey riding pine makes me nervous.

I know...plus got to get out of 1st inning....Cueto has the ability to throw a gem...unless he has something wrong with him,that he not telling the manager................................. ....................BOL

[trobin31]

I know...plus got to get out of 1st inning....Cueto has the ability to throw a gem...unless he has something wrong with him,that he not telling the manager................................. ....................BOL

Yeah line went backward's by 30 cents within hour of game, not good sign

[CappinTerp]

Yeah line went backward's by 30 cents within hour of game, not good sign

Lucky to get out of 1st with just 1 run..............But I disagree about the line movement...the "smart money" is not always smart..........and at times I will put more money on a game and fade the move.!!

[2daBank]

Moves don't mean shit in relation to outcome. Plus pretty sure that move was based off sf sitting guys more than anything else.

[trobin31]

Lucky to get out of 1st with just 1 run..............But I disagree about the line movement...the "smart money" is not always smart..........and at times I will put more money on a game and fade the move.!!

I agree, and in this case, not even sure it was smart money. Good luck to us.

[trobin31]

Moves don't mean shit in relation to outcome. Plus pretty sure that move was based off sf sitting guys more than anything else.

So you saying the outcomes/win percentage for teams priced +105 is the same for teams priced +125?

[2daBank]

So you saying the outcomes/win percentage for teams priced +105 is the same for teams priced +125?

You telling me if a team opens at +125 and gets bet down to +105 somehow their chances of winning increased or vice versa?

[2daBank]

A teams chances of winning doesn't fluctuate with the market.

[trobin31]

You telling me if a team opens at +125 and gets bet down to +105 somehow their chances of winning increased or vice versa?

Yeah, pretty much a fact.

[2daBank]

Yeah, pretty much a fact.

It's actually not.

[trobin31]

It's actually not.

I'm no economics major but this seems like pretty basic stuff here.

[Snake24]

Glad you are back, Cap!

[2daBank]

I'd love for you to explain to me how a teams chances of winning a game change between open of line and 1st pitch barring other factors than line moves? 1st off lines never a true indicator of a teams chances in the 1st place, much more perception based then gets influenced by more perception. Not facts on a teams actual chances of winning a game. I'm sure that easily proven by looking at every teams win percentage on every line and finding they dont in fact win the percatage of the time the line indicates.

[2daBank]

I'm no economics major but this seems like pretty basic stuff here.

I thought so but somehow you telling me a team chances of winning seriously increase and decrease between open of a line and 1st pitch?? How that so I need explanation.

[2daBank]

I feel like you taking the line to be a accurate indicator of a teams true chances.

I don't exactly believe there is a true indicator of such a thing and if there was it certainly wouldn't be the line which is set off perception then moved based off ours and others opinions of such not facts.

[trobin31]

I'm no economics professor and I'm certainly not gonna pretend to be one here today. Just google 'sports trading' and 'expected value' and I'm sure you'll find a plethora of material to digest.

[2daBank]

The only thing that changes perception of a teams chances. How can their actual chances of winning fluctuate based off money moving a line?

It simply not possible the tigers chances of winning today went from 55% to 60% (just example I didn't do actual math) in the 2 hours before the game based off money pouring in on them.

[2daBank]

I'm no economics professor and I'm certainly not gonna pretend to be one here today. Just google 'sports trading' and 'expected value' and I'm sure you'll find a plethora of material to digest.

Read plenty of it and none of it can tell me the fact tigers line jumped 40 cents today somehow made the likelihood of them winning any greater. Maybe I should figure out some type physics book or quantum something to tell us tigers chances of winning were always the same even as they were being bet higher and higher. How is it possible our money made tigers chances any different?

[SAX27]

Both of you solid cappers....my 2 cents is there are various strategies re: line movement. Many look at line movement to determine plays while many simply look at matchups and play accordingly. Dont think either of you are right or wrong.

[2daBank]

Both of you solid cappers....my 2 cents is there are various strategies re: line movement. Many look at line movement to determine plays while many simply look at matchups and play accordingly. Dont think either of you are right or wrong.

I'm not trying to argue any one way of capping a game over another. I'm not nearly cocky enough to believe the way I do things any better than anyone else's. I just can't fathom how a teams chances of winning moves from one minute to the next cause the line moves? Are these guys watching the line and it gets in their head? one can throw down a certain amount early and instantly move the line, so if I make a sizeable enough bet to move the line somehow I just increased my teams chances of winning or did I just manipulate a line? Something that done all the time to actually come back and take other side, so someone gets line moving one way then arbs it and takes other side at better odds with a bigger figure and moves the line again they have in fact increased and decreased said teams chances all on their own??

[trobin31]

Read plenty of it and none of it can tell me the fact tigers line jumped 40 cents today somehow made they likekyhood of them winning any greater. Maybe I should figure out some type physics book or quantum something to tell us tigers chances of winning were always the same even as they were being bet higher and higher. How is it possible our money made tigers chances any different?

If you read all about it then I think that speaks volumes on your fortitude to stand by your beliefs. I salute you. I like to cap the games myself using sabermetrics and past hx against teams so honestly this doesn't affect me as I don't have the time to monitor lines enough to be successful beating the closing number. I'm sure someone on here has tried beating the number at a square book over a larger sample size than a few cherry picked games and could tell us how it went.

[Deucerd]

Entertaining conversation fellas. I tend to agree with 2dabank. Obviously barring injuries, weather, lineup changes, etc. Team A has no better chance to win based on a line that moved from finances at open to game time. But GL fellas, I appreciate you all and respect opinions.

[2daBank]

If you read all about it then I think that speaks volumes on your fortitude to stand by your beliefs. I salute you. I like to cap the games myself using sabermetrics and past hx against teams so honestly this doesn't affect me as I don't have the time to monitor lines enough to be successful beating the closing number. I'm sure someone on here has tried beating the number at a square book over a larger sample size than a few cherry picked games and could tell us how it went.

I'm not arguing beating the number bad, long run you will be up more doing so it a good thing. I'm just saying it increases your roi more so than actually increases chances that your team wins said game.

Nothing but respect for ya buddy not trying to come off as otherwise.

[CappinTerp]

Glad you are back, Cap!

Thanks Snake.....trobin,banker...My take on this is that a games price is unrelated to any random occurrence that may take place during a game,therefore it's unrelated...............But WTF do I know..........peace and winners for all!!!

[CappinTerp]

I think it's time to do some green and blue bumps !!

[2daBank]

Lol. I'm typing awful lot bout this on my phone. I may have did a bump or 2

[CappinTerp]

Lol. I'm typing awful lot bout this on my phone. I may have did a bump or 2

YEA,that boy,you the man!..................and I feel gooooooooooooooooood.

[CappinTerp]

Wow,what happened ? Was 5-5 1st & 3rd,1 out......did some bumps and went outside,with coffee and cigarettes,pissed off because of lost game,that I really liked.Come back, it's top of 10th,with a 7-5 lead.......the random,crazy biz of betting baseball..............but not over till the fat lady sings...we will see what happens...................On another note: For Fri. the ARZ TT - UNDER looks good....last 3 games vs SD...32 RUNS on 29 HITS..........................Milwaukee on deck.

[Snake24]

where did you get -115?

[2daBank]

Nice hit brother. Congrats.

[CappinTerp]

where did you get -115?

Nice hit brother. Congrats.

AT 5 D.....Thanks buddy,I little luck never hurts!!

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