I have been wondering what the results would be if you blindly flat bet on every underdog available each day in baseball. My theory was that baseball faves are over-valued by the public and that there could be money to be made by blindly betting the underdogs.
So I set up a very small sample going back five days and back-tested this theory, using Pinnacle lines available in the middle of the betting day when most people are placing wagers. I tossed out any games where there was not + or even money to be made by betting either side. (Basically these were the "pick 'em" games.)
What I quickly realized is the books do not give fair lines to the underdog. For instance, in a game where there is a -200 favorite, you would expect the underdog to fetch +190. But that's not what happens. In many cases the underdog fetched only +180 or even +175 (.25 cent line!). Because of this the books will eat your lunch if you blind bet the favorites.
Here is what would have happened if you had blind bet the underdog with a flat bet of $100, at Pinnacle, at 2 pm every day, for every game where you could make even or plus money, going back five days:
Saturday (May 27)
- You would have gone 4 - 9 and lost $395
Friday (May 26)
- You would have gone 4 - 8 and lost $270
Thurs (May 25)
- You would have gone 3 - 6 and lost $184
Wed (May 24)
- You would have gone 6 - 9 and lost $77
Tues (May 23)
- You would have gone 4 - 10 and lost $544
For the week you would have gone 21 - 42 AND LOST $1,470
So I set up a very small sample going back five days and back-tested this theory, using Pinnacle lines available in the middle of the betting day when most people are placing wagers. I tossed out any games where there was not + or even money to be made by betting either side. (Basically these were the "pick 'em" games.)
What I quickly realized is the books do not give fair lines to the underdog. For instance, in a game where there is a -200 favorite, you would expect the underdog to fetch +190. But that's not what happens. In many cases the underdog fetched only +180 or even +175 (.25 cent line!). Because of this the books will eat your lunch if you blind bet the favorites.
Here is what would have happened if you had blind bet the underdog with a flat bet of $100, at Pinnacle, at 2 pm every day, for every game where you could make even or plus money, going back five days:
Saturday (May 27)
- You would have gone 4 - 9 and lost $395
Friday (May 26)
- You would have gone 4 - 8 and lost $270
Thurs (May 25)
- You would have gone 3 - 6 and lost $184
Wed (May 24)
- You would have gone 6 - 9 and lost $77
Tues (May 23)
- You would have gone 4 - 10 and lost $544
For the week you would have gone 21 - 42 AND LOST $1,470
