Shutout System 2017

JustTheSportsTip · 05-24-17, 11:04 PM

I want to make sure I have this right. I'm not throwing any shade, these are legitimate questions and I want to make sure I am getting this right because I am interested.

A team gets shut out, the next game you bet them to lose. If they win, you bet them to lose until the chase ends, 5 or 6 games total depending on your choice. Losing 5 or 6 in a row would be very expensive no? Especially since you're usually betting the favorite? Does it not matter because there are so many overall wins?

Also the record after posting:
( A ) : 54 - 64
( B ) : 32 - 31 Shouldn't there total 64 games?
( C ) : 18 - 3 Shouldn't this total 31?
( D ) : 8 - 5 Shouldn't this only total 3?
( E ) : 3 - 2
( F ) : 2 - 0

I know when you started the thread you were in the middle of a couple series, but it didn't appear to be too many.

FUqer · 05-24-17, 11:58 PM

So if you would of took Twins too, you would at least got 1-1. Haven't fully tried to understand to incremental bets you're doing to see if it makes since.

I haven't checked recent years but it seems more profitable to fade the teams off a shut out who are above 50%, as shown below. If you look at teams off getting shut out below 50% and at Home their next game, they actually have +0.9 ROI, while team above 50% and on the Road their next game are -4.0% ROI. I can add more filters and I'm sure increase the ROI even more, maybe later. In short, to increase your odds at hitting that first game or your overall chases, only bet on teams off a shut out who are above 50% winning percentage and on the Road, and don't play on teams below 50% and at Home after getting shutout, but of course, that's just the first game. And systems are nice, but match-ups should always be taken into to effect. GL

Teams after they got shut out

1904-1987 (-0.06, 48.9%)

avg line: -100.2 / -112.5

on / against: -$9,520 / -$10,322

ROI: -2.0% / -2.1%

Teams that got shut out who are under 50%.

950-1083 (-0.24, 46.7%)

avg line: 116.0 / -129.2

on / against: -$2,811 / -$8,083

ROI: -1.2% / -2.9%

Teams that got shut out who are over 50%.

874-816 (0.19, 51.7%)

avg line: -119.0 / 106.7

on / against: -$5,450 / -$2,701

ROI: -2.5% / -1.4%

Teams that got shut out and under 50% and at Home their next game

503-461 (-0.04, 52.2%)

avg line: -107.9 / -103.3

on / against: +$1,017 / -$5,936

ROI: +0.9% / -5.2%

Teams that got shut out and over 50% and on the Road their next game

448-495 (0.04, 47.5%)

avg line: 100.9 / -112.2

on / against: -$4,318 / -$43

ROI: -4.0% / -0.0%

notbriandawkins · 05-25-17, 02:06 PM

MLB Shutout System: 0-0
Bankroll: 400
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
(E) 0-0

Upcoming plays:
Royals (19-27) at Yankees 5/25 POSTPONED

notbriandawkins · 05-25-17, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by JustTheSportsTip

I want to make sure I have this right. I'm not throwing any shade, these are legitimate questions and I want to make sure I am getting this right because I am interested.

A team gets shut out, the next game you bet them to lose. If they win, you bet them to lose until the chase ends, 5 or 6 games total depending on your choice. Losing 5 or 6 in a row would be very expensive no? Especially since you're usually betting the favorite? Does it not matter because there are so many overall wins?

Also the record after posting:
( A ) : 54 - 64
( B ) : 32 - 31 Shouldn't there total 64 games?
( C ) : 18 - 3 Shouldn't this total 31?
( D ) : 8 - 5 Shouldn't this only total 3?
( E ) : 3 - 2
( F ) : 2 - 0

I know when you started the thread you were in the middle of a couple series, but it didn't appear to be too many.

Yeah it does get expensive. Good point on the record flaw from the thread, not sure what that's about. I didn't start that thread though. My last two plays have both been underdogs so you're not always taking the favorite. There are a lot of plays though, so I'll just see how this plays out. I'm either going until broke or end of regular season.

notbriandawkins · 05-25-17, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

So if you would of took Twins too, you would at least got 1-1. Haven't fully tried to understand to incremental bets you're doing to see if it makes since.

I haven't checked recent years but it seems more profitable to fade the teams off a shut out who are above 50%, as shown below. If you look at teams off getting shut out below 50% and at Home their next game, they actually have +0.9 ROI, while team above 50% and on the Road their next game are -4.0% ROI. I can add more filters and I'm sure increase the ROI even more, maybe later. In short, to increase your odds at hitting that first game or your overall chases, only bet on teams off a shut out who are above 50% winning percentage and on the Road, and don't play on teams below 50% and at Home after getting shutout, but of course, that's just the first game. And systems are nice, but match-ups should always be taken into to effect. GL

Teams after they got shut out

1904-1987 (-0.06, 48.9%)

avg line: -100.2 / -112.5

on / against: -$9,520 / -$10,322

ROI: -2.0% / -2.1%

Teams that got shut out who are under 50%.

950-1083 (-0.24, 46.7%)

avg line: 116.0 / -129.2

on / against: -$2,811 / -$8,083

ROI: -1.2% / -2.9%

Teams that got shut out who are over 50%.

874-816 (0.19, 51.7%)

avg line: -119.0 / 106.7

on / against: -$5,450 / -$2,701

ROI: -2.5% / -1.4%

Teams that got shut out and under 50% and at Home their next game

503-461 (-0.04, 52.2%)

avg line: -107.9 / -103.3

on / against: +$1,017 / -$5,936

ROI: +0.9% / -5.2%

Teams that got shut out and over 50% and on the Road their next game

448-495 (0.04, 47.5%)

avg line: 100.9 / -112.2

on / against: -$4,318 / -$43

ROI: -4.0% / -0.0%

Thanks for this info. Like I said, you can make any adjustments you want (and I encourage you to track results ITT too). I know I'm going at this blindly but I just want a system with a lot of plays. For all I know, there might be plays I don't take just because I'm not confident enough (I would still list/play them on here). Unlikely though as I want to be consistent

notbriandawkins · 05-25-17, 07:39 PM

Angels will not be a play after today as their record is .500

imotiv8 · 05-26-17, 07:25 AM

Checking in

kilopro · 05-26-17, 12:29 PM

Tried a variation of this last year for awhile. I can tell you which teams that had me sweating big time. And when a team with a bad record goes on a winning streak, beware cause the juice playing favs against them on a long chase could get extreme. Need nerves of steel to go 5+ games. Much easier time playing against favs but they tend to be better teams that win more also.

Good luck to us all!

FUqer · 05-26-17, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by kilopro

Tried a variation of this last year for awhile. I can tell you which teams that had me sweating big time. And when a team with a bad record goes on a winning streak, beware cause the juice playing favs against them on a long chase could get extreme. Need nerves of steel to go 5+ games. Much easier time playing against favs but they tend to be better teams that win more also.

Good luck to us all!

Seems like better results if you fade winning teams who got shutout for the next game only.

kilopro · 05-27-17, 03:21 AM

Interesting to note also is that sometimes on these long chases, you could literally be betting both sides of a game to eliminate one chase. I like the guaranteed win part of it but the flip side is, one of the chases will continue.

2daBank · 05-27-17, 05:38 AM

Forgive me if been mentioned or a silly question but does fading a team for 6 games after they been shutout honestly produce and better results for fading any team for 6 games or until a loss? Not like teams just realing off 6 consecutive losses/wins all the time. I guess my question is Does them being shutout really increase chances they lose again or win for that matter in a 6 game stretch?

notbriandawkins · 05-27-17, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by kilopro

Interesting to note also is that sometimes on these long chases, you could literally be betting both sides of a game to eliminate one chase. I like the guaranteed win part of it but the flip side is, one of the chases will continue.

Yeah that sucks when you don't have a large bankroll. Actually since no games have even been played yet I'm just gonna change to $5 plays. Still 5 game chases vs teams under .500 coming off a shutout loss.

Forgive me if been mentioned or a silly question but does fading a team for 6 games after they been shutout honestly produce and better results for fading any team for 6 games or until a loss? Not like teams just realing off 6 consecutive losses/wins all the time. I guess my question is Does them being shutout really increase chances they lose again or win for that matter in a 6 game stretch?

Good question, I'm not sure but all I know is the results of the system looked good in other years according to threads so I'm going to try it

MLB Shutout System: 0-0
Bankroll: 400
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
(E) 0-0

Upcoming plays (first team listed is the one we're fading):
Mariners (21-29) at Red Sox 5/28
Padres (18-33) at Nationals 5/28
Tigers (23-26) at White Sox 5/28

PS postponed games will not be in play. Only makes sense considering the concept of this system. Trying to get teams during bad weeks

Scrivero · 05-27-17, 11:54 PM

Where can one bet a team to get shutout? I cant seem to find such option on Pinnacle... I had/have a similar system in NHL but I was forced to bet exact scores instead of teams just getting shutout, as I couldnt find an option for a "shutout". THanks!

FUqer · 05-28-17, 05:00 AM

Originally posted by Scrivero

Where can one bet a team to get shutout? I cant seem to find such option on Pinnacle... I had/have a similar system in NHL but I was forced to bet exact scores instead of teams just getting shutout, as I couldnt find an option for a "shutout". THanks!

I dunno, try Team Total Under 1. He isn't betting on teams to get shut out though, he's betting against teams for their next 5 games after they just got shut out the previous game, but only when the team that got shut out has a record below .500%.

If Pirates lost 5-0, he would fade them for the next 5 games, in which he would most likely be playing favorites more often than not.

The system is for a 6 game chase, he is doing a 5 game chase instead. I shown above that it's not profitable in the first game after getting shut out to fade a team with a losing record. So, since he only wants to do a 5 game chase but it's originally meant for 6, and if he isn't going to fade teams with records above 50% which has actually been profitable fading in the first game, then he could just skip the 1st game after the shut out and play the next 5.

Logic says if in that first game they aren't profitable, but the system is profitable over 6 games, maybe the profits would be even bigger, if the first was avoided, and he only wants to do 5 anyway, seems like a no brainer. I hope all that made sense.

I've never tried any chase systems, but I'd be careful messing around with anything that the system includes without checking it first. If the system fades teams with any record, I'd hesitate to change it, to only teams with losing records. The profits might actually mostly come from fading the teams with records above 50%, and just from the few minutes I spent on it, that looks like it could be true.

Scrivero · 05-28-17, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by FUqer

I dunno, try Team Total Under 1. He isn't betting on teams to get shut out though, he's betting against teams for their next 5 games after they just got shut out the previous game, but only when the team that got shut out has a record below .500%.

Thanks for the reply! Team totals under 1 is the answer, I will see if I can use that on NHL too, would save me tons of time. Good ponderings about the system too.

kilopro · 05-28-17, 10:44 AM

This was one of the early threads on this kind of chase system. Link to some backtesting in post #445.

Shut Out System - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/1024515-shut-out-system-p13.html#post9820937

MLB handicapping, baseball betting, picks, matchups and the latests game results in the MLB forum.

There is a good amount of info in there but in a nutshell, over a 6 year span, 6 game chase hit rate was over 92% (for both fading a team that got shutout, and betting ON teams that shut out opponent).

kilopro · 05-28-17, 11:06 AM

Oh and author of that post stressed the use of a Labby for bankroll management.

notbriandawkins · 05-28-17, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by kilopro

This was one of the early threads on this kind of chase system. Link to some backtesting in post #445.

Shut Out System - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/1024515-shut-out-system-p13.html#post9820937

MLB handicapping, baseball betting, picks, matchups and the latests game results in the MLB forum.

There is a good amount of info in there but in a nutshell, over a 6 year span, 6 game chase hit rate was over 92% (for both fading a team that got shutout, and betting ON teams that shut out opponent).

Should be noted that the trailing was for 5 games and not 6. I don't know how I'd feel about trailing a team that just posted a shutout. Most shutouts have to do with pitching and it won't be the same guys the next 5-6 games