I rarely watch games I bet on, but when I do I usually only try to pick up trends. I was watching the first game of the TOR/STL DH'er yesterday and noticed two things. 1) the Cardinals play single A ball. Running in to outs, dropping routine plays at second, getting picked off at second on a failed bunt attemp, etc and 2) TOR's bullpen is extremely worn down. As the game proceeded in to extra innings I asked myself how John Gibbons was going to manage the second game with a rookie starter up and already being 6 pitchers deep in to the game. I ran a quick SDQL:
The query is simple: Dating back to 2010, what have teams done coming off of a fist game doubleheaeder loss after their bullpen gave up more than 4 runs, while using more than 5 pitchers.
As expected, teams loss 14 out of 19 times and when they lose, they lose with an avg margin of over 3 runs. SU's RoI was 49.5% and the RL's RoI was at +54.6%.
I only risked 1% of BR on both the RL and SU play. Should've put a little more on it.
Any one else bet like this? Would love to hear about some of your strategies.
The query is simple: Dating back to 2010, what have teams done coming off of a fist game doubleheaeder loss after their bullpen gave up more than 4 runs, while using more than 5 pitchers.
As expected, teams loss 14 out of 19 times and when they lose, they lose with an avg margin of over 3 runs. SU's RoI was 49.5% and the RL's RoI was at +54.6%.
I only risked 1% of BR on both the RL and SU play. Should've put a little more on it.
Any one else bet like this? Would love to hear about some of your strategies.