4/7/17
3-4, RoR -13.7%
Reds, F5, +155, Garrett (0-0) / Leake (14-16)
Garrett has some advantages here. He has never started an MLB game, which means the Cardinals hitters have never faced him, and reading scouting reports is not equal to having faced a guy. Since the ST action was Cactus/Grapefruit there wasn’t any interaction at all between the Reds and Cardinals. The Cardinals beat Lester in their opener, but that was on the strength of Martinez pitching, not their own offense, which was fairly weak, even considering who they faced. 7 K’s and only 1 earned run over 5 innings does not normally win. Leake is no Martinez and I expect him to be part of the Cardinals slight regression this year. What we have is a coin flip first 5 at a huge plus price.
Diamondbacks, FG, +133, Tomlin (18-12) / Miller (5-15)
I am taking a little bit of a flyer on this one as Miller was absolutely horrible last year and my mental state may be “nobody is as bad as Miller looked last year”. The Dbax also looked very good versus Cueto and Samardzija, the two righties they have faced so far. The Indians come in at 3-0 and looked impressive at Texas, but there could now be a little letdown going to a National League park, and a dome in which they have not played since 2014. Tomlin is no Bumgarner, not even left handed, and could easily fall to an aggressive Dbax offense. This game is no “gimme” as the odds would indicate, and the Tribe is not going to win them all folks.
BOL
3-4, RoR -13.7%
Reds, F5, +155, Garrett (0-0) / Leake (14-16)
Garrett has some advantages here. He has never started an MLB game, which means the Cardinals hitters have never faced him, and reading scouting reports is not equal to having faced a guy. Since the ST action was Cactus/Grapefruit there wasn’t any interaction at all between the Reds and Cardinals. The Cardinals beat Lester in their opener, but that was on the strength of Martinez pitching, not their own offense, which was fairly weak, even considering who they faced. 7 K’s and only 1 earned run over 5 innings does not normally win. Leake is no Martinez and I expect him to be part of the Cardinals slight regression this year. What we have is a coin flip first 5 at a huge plus price.
Diamondbacks, FG, +133, Tomlin (18-12) / Miller (5-15)
I am taking a little bit of a flyer on this one as Miller was absolutely horrible last year and my mental state may be “nobody is as bad as Miller looked last year”. The Dbax also looked very good versus Cueto and Samardzija, the two righties they have faced so far. The Indians come in at 3-0 and looked impressive at Texas, but there could now be a little letdown going to a National League park, and a dome in which they have not played since 2014. Tomlin is no Bumgarner, not even left handed, and could easily fall to an aggressive Dbax offense. This game is no “gimme” as the odds would indicate, and the Tribe is not going to win them all folks.
BOL