Stat question

[Grivas_Digeni]

I have a free play, where pushes lose. I can only select from a few baseball games where home teams are favored by (-1) run. And total in each of this games is a whole number (7.0 or 8.0, not 7.5 or 8.5). So without even capping, I'm trying to make a selection on a game and minimize the chances of getting a push and losing the free play.

In general, is the push more likely on a random total or a random home team favorite 1-run win?

[Grivas_Digeni]

Note: if the difference between the two probabilities is under 20%, it doesn't really concern me because pushes as a whole are a pretty rare thing. However, if it is obvious that totals will push twice as often as the -1 favorite run line (ok, not twice but 50% more often?) that's something I'd like to know for future reference.

Thank you, baseball savants!

Yours, MLB newbie

[Grivas_Digeni]

Is this a difficult question?

[Grivas_Digeni]

is it a stupid question?

[chargers4222]

i would say there is no difference between the probability of a push on a spread and on a total. do you already have a play you're looking at for today?

[Grivas_Digeni]

Would you say it's more likely that I get a push on a 8.0 total than a 12.0 total? More likely to push in ATL@COL than PHI@PIT?

[Semper Fidelis]

As far as comparing two separate totals like that, statistically one isn't more likely than the other to land on the exact number and push, but it does become a factor with the RL -- i.e. the lower the total, the higher the chance the game will end up a 1-run game.