MLB - Thursday, 5/26/16

tradeout · 05-26-16, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 9.5 +100 (Heritage)

against 2 gas cans?

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by tradeout

against 2 gas cans?

Love Jon Gray, don't worry about one awful start. Key is Rockies not teeing off on Buchholz, but Sox should know enough to pull him early in a close game and Boston bullpen is fine.

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 07:09 AM

Just one 60%er today:

Pirates 63% (-170)

jjgold · 05-26-16, 07:48 AM

White Soxs good price

I hate betting against KC though even though they are a notch down this year

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

White Soxs good price

I hate betting against KC though even though they are a notch down this year

I like going against KC myself, they are overrated this year. They project to be around a .500 team, their starting pitching is terrible.

44 Mag · 05-26-16, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Love Jon Gray, don't worry about one awful start. Key is Rockies not teeing off on Buchholz, but Sox should know enough to pull him early in a close game and Boston bullpen is fine.

That's the trouble with Farrell, he doesn't know enough to replace this bum when he is getting hit.

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

That's the trouble with Farrell, he doesn't know enough to replace this bum when he is getting hit.

Well a 9.5 total does give some leeway as long as Gray reverts to normal form. If he could get out of Colorado, he would post All-Star numbers ala Drew Pomeranz.

PorkChop · 05-26-16, 09:09 AM

See I love the WhiteSox tonight, because these guy's just went head to head days ago 2-1 KC Final.

And you'll say this previous matchup has nothing to do with your capping this game, correct?

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

See I love the WhiteSox tonight, because these guy's just went head to head days ago 2-1 KC Final.

And you'll say this previous matchup has nothing to do with your capping this game, correct?

Correct, one game is not predictive of the future, you have to look at teams' full body of work. And actually neither starter grades out that well, but they are extremely close giving the +150 value.

PorkChop · 05-26-16, 09:14 AM

I'm trying to find out why Duffy was pulled after 4.1 last game

gpet1984 · 05-26-16, 09:19 AM

pitch count. Hes limited to 80 pitches today

gpet1984 · 05-26-16, 09:22 AM

LT what your opinion on the cards. Seems like Leake has been solid as of late and pitching descent on the road. Ross is a bit overrated and if they can hit Arrieta they should be able to hit Ross in a perfect world. Are we getting a undervalued line here due to the team playing under expectations or is line were it should be.

PorkChop · 05-26-16, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by gpet1984

pitch count. Hes limited to 80 pitches today

63 Count, should be a higher limit today

gpet1984 · 05-26-16, 09:26 AM

His limit is def 80 today. That news was posted already. They were building him up so 60 was probably his count last game if I had to guess.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-26-16, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by gpet1984

His limit is def 80 today. That news was posted already. They were building him up so 60 was probably his count last game if I had to guess.

Hopefully he won't get there and White sox knock him outta the game way before then

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by gpet1984

LT what your opinion on the cards. Seems like Leake has been solid as of late and pitching descent on the road. Ross is a bit overrated and if they can hit Arrieta they should be able to hit Ross in a perfect world. Are we getting a undervalued line here due to the team playing under expectations or is line were it should be.

Yeah the perceived value is certainly there according to the model, which only has Washington 52% (-108). I just always hate seeing line run away from model number like this one has.

stackz125 · 05-26-16, 10:33 AM

Sometimes you Gatta put the model aside and pound the winners

iloseagain · 05-26-16, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 9.5 +100 (Heritage)
White Sox +150 (Heritage)

YTD: 144-141-6, +11.42

Oh cmon man! haha. Im loving the over here. Square play yes. Sox will have no issues hitting Gray. He hasnt had "one" bad start. I guess you are saying "one bad road start," but he pitched well against SD @ SD, who is consistently shut down by everybody in that ballpark. And he did pitch very well @ SF, which is another pitchers park, but SF was barely a .500 team at that point. I think you may be overvaluing his 2 "good" road starts, but obviously only time will tell tonight. Pitching in Boston right now is a different animal. Boston averages almost 7 RPG at home. ANY pitcher going into Boston right now is shitting their pants and this guy included.

Boston bullpen is pretty good, but like someone else said, Farrell doesnt pull buchholz even when hes pitching bad. He throws 6 innings almost every game. GL anyways, but i just thought id post my thoughts.

Redscot · 05-26-16, 10:45 AM

LT, curious if you incorporate the weighted pitch numbers now being provided. Essentially it tries to evaluate the effectiveness that each pitch has been for a pitcher and also the batters. Not advocating these numbers as I am just starting to track there efficacy. For example Gray today, who basically throws 90% FB or SL has the Sox who are currently #3 in wFB/C 1.05 and first in wSL/C at 1.16 in the league. Grays wFB/C is -.73 and his wSL/C is a robust 2.11.

iloseagain · 05-26-16, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

LT, curious if you incorporate the weighted pitch numbers now being provided. Essentially it tries to evaluate the effectiveness that each pitch has been for a pitcher and also the batters. Not advocating these numbers as I am just starting to track there efficacy. For example Gray today, who basically throws 90% FB or SL has the Sox who are currently #3 in wFB/C 1.05 and first in wSL/C at 1.16 in the league. Grays wFB/C is -.73 and his wSL/C is a robust 2.11.

so what does this mean exactly? He has a below avg FB and a very good slider?

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by iloseagain

Oh cmon man! haha. Im loving the over here. Square play yes. Sox will have no issues hitting Gray. He hasnt had "one" bad start. I guess you are saying "one bad road start," but he pitched well against SD @ SD, who is consistently shut down by everybody in that ballpark. And he did pitch very well @ SF, which is another pitchers park, but SF was barely a .500 team at that point. I think you may be overvaluing his 2 "good" road starts, but obviously only time will tell tonight. Pitching in Boston right now is a different animal. Boston averages almost 7 RPG at home. ANY pitcher going into Boston right now is shitting their pants and this guy included.

Boston bullpen is pretty good, but like someone else said, Farrell doesnt pull buchholz even when hes pitching bad. He throws 6 innings almost every game. GL anyways, but i just thought id post my thoughts.

Gray is a future stud, look at his peripherals. In fact, look at his two year career. Don't make the mistake a lot of guys do looking at ERA and stuff like that. How many pitchers have visited Boston that have a 2.66 xFIP?

In fact, check out the company Gray is keeping (ranked by xFIP):

1. Kershaw 1.87
2. Syndergaard 2.00
3. Nola 2.56
4. Fernandez 2.60
5 . Strasburg 2.64
6. Gray 2.66
7. Matz 2.82
8. Price 2.88
9. Cueto 2.99
10. Scherzer 3.07
11. Arrieta 3.08

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

LT, curious if you incorporate the weighted pitch numbers now being provided. Essentially it tries to evaluate the effectiveness that each pitch has been for a pitcher and also the batters. Not advocating these numbers as I am just starting to track there efficacy. For example Gray today, who basically throws 90% FB or SL has the Sox who are currently #3 in wFB/C 1.05 and first in wSL/C at 1.16 in the league. Grays wFB/C is -.73 and his wSL/C is a robust 2.11.

Is the "C" for Contact? If so, those could be inflated by his ridiculous .376 BABIP allowed. Also, are the ratings park adjusted?

Redscot · 05-26-16, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by iloseagain

so what does this mean exactly? He has a below avg FB and a very good slider?

It's an analytics approach to evaluating the data to date on the effectiveness of each pitch. Just like sierra and xfip are far better tools to evaluate a pitchers performance to date and their expected future results than say era.

Pitch Type Linear Weights

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/linear-weights/

The Pitch Type Linear Weights (“Pitch Values”) section on FanGraphs attempts to answer the question, “How well has a batter/pitcher performed against/using a certain pitch?” Pitch values make use of…

Redscot · 05-26-16, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Is the "C" for Contact? If so, those could be inflated by his ridiculous .376 BABIP allowed. Also, are the ratings park adjusted?

No, the C scales it to results through 100 pitches.

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

No, the C scales it to results through 100 pitches.

OK thanks, looks like a fascinating research tool. And no, not incorporated in model.

iloseagain · 05-26-16, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Gray is a future stud, look at his peripherals. In fact, look at his two year career. Don't make the mistake a lot of guys do looking at ERA and stuff like that. How many pitchers have visited Boston that have a 2.66 xFIP?

In fact, check out the company Gray is keeping (ranked by xFIP):

1. Kershaw 1.87
2. Syndergaard 2.00
3. Nola 2.56
4. Fernandez 2.60
5 . Strasburg 2.64
6. Gray 2.66
7. Matz 2.82
8. Price 2.88
9. Cueto 2.99
10. Scherzer 3.07
11. Arrieta 3.08

Impressive list, but it also doesnt factor in the human aspect of pitching. Ive noticed pitchers in Boston have tried to be way more careful, pitching around guys and walking guys when they normally wouldnt. I believe there is just a certain level of worry when pitching to this boston lineup right now and it makes pitchers do things they normally wouldnt. it is very difficult to pitch to this lineup when every guy that comes up next is another .300 hitter. He also pitches in the NL, where you basically get 2 free outs at the bottom and he pitches in a weak division as well.

EVERY SINGLE guy on that list is in the NL besides Price. Anyones xFIP will look better than it really is when you pitch in the NL. His 3 road starts have all came in bottom half of stadiums in the 'Runs - MLB Park Factors' department. Like i said before, we will see what happens tonight, but theres no way in hell anyone could convince me to take the under in a Bos/Col game right now. Regardless of all these numbers, I think the Sox have absolutely no issues hitting this guy. He may be a future stud, but he is not right now and will more than likely get whacked around for his 2nd straight start.

EDIT: and i know you arent trying to convince me to take the under. thats not what i meant by that sentence btw.

MMA_Oracle · 05-26-16, 11:16 AM

@ LT

i noticed you have the Pirates as as 60% today (-170). well, the lines currently at -188 w the dbacks at +178 (5d). i guess there isnt much value on taking the dbacks at this point, but at what line would you take them?

JohnD25 · 05-26-16, 11:31 AM

What do you have for Gausman against Astros?

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by MMA_Oracle

@ LT

i noticed you have the Pirates as as 60% today (-170). well, the lines currently at -188 w the dbacks at +178 (5d). i guess there isnt much value on taking the dbacks at this point, but at what line would you take them?

General rule of thumb of 10% would mean at least +187. But that is not a hard rule for me.

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by JohnD25

What do you have for Gausman against Astros?

Too close to real Orioles line, Houston 52% (-108)

LT Profits · 05-26-16, 11:35 AM

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 9.5 +100 (Heritage)
White Sox +150 (Heritage)
White Sox / Royals OVER 8.5 +108 (5 Dimes)

MMA_Oracle · 05-26-16, 12:01 PM

cheers! good luck today

KVB · 05-26-16, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Just one 60%er today:

Pirates 63% (-170)

We agree again, I took as much as they would give me live with Pitt down 1-0.

CappinTerp · 05-26-16, 01:02 PM

I like that R.SOX / COLO-Under 9.5 - Surprised that the total is not 10! Both pitchers have high enough ERA's to warrant that price,to me it seems that books want to get over money.....Also COLO in inter-league play has just gone over in 12 of last 42 games.And has a low team BA of just .231 last 7 games................................... ...gl