This is too good to be true

[Amadeo-Picks]

Rangers are a hot team coming in. Expected to be one of the worst teams in the leaugue when it's all said And done but right now they are hitting , their bats are HOT. And tonight they are at home vs a rookie pitcher. And then they have NICK MARTINEZ on the mound! I expected this line to -130 . And yet they are underdogs . What the ***** I'm I missing????

[Conqueror]

Where have you been? The Red Sox have been overvalued all year! There's no easier way to make money in this thing than fading teams living on old glory.

[thebestthereis]

somebody is pounding the sox, make no sense. rookie for pitcher sox is good but it makes no sense based on every other angle in the books on these teams and current form. it's like sandy koufax has been reincarnated.

[44 Mag]

somebody is pounding the sox, make no sense. rookie for pitcher sox is good but it makes no sense based on every other angle in the books on these teams and current form. it's like sandy koufax has been reincarnated.

Flip side is, nobody knows what the kid can do. Like yesterday, Detroit starts a rook, 0-5 in triple A, goes three innings and 0 runs??? Go figure. I can't. To me the Red Sox suck, but....................

[Mike Huntertz]

I like overs with rooks pitching

[bluetooth3]

Tough game to figure out, I liked the Sox at + to EV but not at -130! Rangers or pass now at that value

[44 Mag]

Tough game to figure out, I liked the Sox at + to EV but not at -130! Rangers or pass now at that value

I took Texas this AM. BOL.

[LT Profits]

Flip side is, nobody knows what the kid can do. Like yesterday, Detroit starts a rook, 0-5 in triple A, goes three innings and 0 runs??? Go figure. I can't. To me the Red Sox suck, but....................

No the guy that was 0-5 in the minors (Ryan) never started, Tigers switched to Alex Wilson at the last minute.

[LT Profits]

Back on point, I have already addressed this in other threads as I bet Red Sox -108 for the game and -110 first 5 innings.

Rodriquez will probably be a future stud, he was already one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before this season and he did nothing at Triple-A to disprove that (2.98 ERA, 44 strikeouts vs. 7 walks). Martinez is not that good, he has lousy peripherals so regression in his fluky ERA should be imminent.

[Conqueror]

Back on point, I have already addressed this in other threads as I bet Red Sox -108 for the game and -110 first 5 innings.

Rodriquez will probably be a future stud, he was already one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before this season and he did nothing at Triple-A to disprove that (2.98 ERA, 44 strikeouts vs. 7 walks). Martinez is not that good, he has lousy peripherals so regression in his fluky ERA should be imminent.

Oh, you're on the Red Sox in the hope Martinez's regression starts today. Why not wait until his regression is underway before fading him? The fact is the Red Sox aren't as good as the books want people to think they are.

[Amadeo-Picks]

Back on point, I have already addressed this in other threads as I bet Red Sox -108 for the game and -110 first 5 innings.

Rodriquez will probably be a future stud, he was already one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before this season and he did nothing at Triple-A to disprove that (2.98 ERA, 44 strikeouts vs. 7 walks). Martinez is not that good, he has lousy peripherals so regression in his fluky ERA should be imminent.

Roookies always pitch better at home than on the road. And Boston bats are no where to be found. Boston fans are going nuts right now. The line is +114 for rangers. At best nick Martinez is a good pitcher. Good for 3 runs over 6 innings and that should be good to win tonight game

[Amadeo-Picks]

Oh, you're on the Red Sox in the hope Martinez's regression starts today. Why not wait until his regression is underway before fading him? The fact is the Red Sox aren't as good as the books want people to think they are.

Exactly what I'm thinking. If Texas wasn't this hot coming in then no one would be even thinking about this game but an impressive7-2 road trip. That's nice

[LT Profits]

Oh, you're on the Red Sox in the hope Martinez's regression starts today. Why not wait until his regression is underway before fading him? The fact is the Red Sox aren't as good as the books want people to think they are.

Because the value is in being ahead of the regression. If you wait for a bad start, then the odds will adjust accordingly next time. But in the end, it all comes down to price. My model has Boston at about -125 here, so the value is gone at current market price. But it was there based on my model at -108.

[Halfapointoff]

Even with Texas being dogs, it's not like they were huge favs opening up. Both teams coming off losses and Texas is hot, and better record w/l record than the sox, and a starter with a 4-0 under 2 era. Yet the road team is fav. I'll let the line makers handicap this game for me, Red Sox for me.

[Conqueror]

Because the value is in being ahead of the regression. If you wait for a bad start, then the odds will adjust accordingly next time. But in the end, it all comes down to price. My model has Boston at about -125 here, so the value is gone at current market price. But it was there based on my model at -110.

I get that. Thanks.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Other areas to consider is Tex has never seen Rodriguez and also getting back from long road trip. Unfamiliarity will benefit "the young stud" here and teams coming back from road trips generally don't light up the scoreboard in that 1st gm back. Under would be my lean if I were to jump on this. Martinez has same unfamiliar advantage ov Sox hitters who have been flat out shit lately. Just my 2 cents

[LT Profits]

Roookies always pitch better at home than on the road. And Boston bats are no where to be found. Boston fans are going nuts right now. The line is +114 for rangers. At best nick Martinez is a good pitcher. Good for 3 runs over 6 innings and that should be good to win tonight game

"Always" is a strong word, and in any event, it is AVERAGE rookies that usually fare better at home. And I am not even sure I would consider Martinez "good", his current ZiPs projection for the rest of the year is 5-7 with a 4.79 ERA. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...730&position=P

[yanksallday7]

Im on the Red Sox also. The Rangers are hot but I just don't see Texas sweeping them and the Sox waking up tonight. If they happened to get sweeped then the next series will be good on the Sox, they haven't been sweeped back to back and come out playing. Just my two cents from their play so far this year.

[LT Profits]

Im on the Red Sox also. The Rangers are hot but I just don't see Texas sweeping them and the Sox waking up tonight. If they happened to get sweeped then the next series will be good on the Sox, they haven't been sweeped back to back and come out playing. Just my two cents from their play so far this year.

Tonight is the first game of the series.

[mikey87]

Chance this one goes over 9?

[yanksallday7]

Tonight is the first game of the series.

I know I realized I said that a bit flipped around, still with the sweeping part from the Twins. Boston plays well after a sweep.

[44 Mag]

Other areas to consider is Tex has never seen Rodriguez and also getting back from long road trip. Unfamiliarity will benefit "the young stud" here and teams coming back from road trips generally don't light up the scoreboard in that 1st gm back. Under would be my lean if I were to jump on this. Martinez has same unfamiliar advantage ov Sox hitters who have been flat out shit lately. Just my 2 cents

How is the kid a stud never having tossed game in the majors??? Where do people get this stuff.??? LOL. BOL to all, and good night men.

[LT Profits]

How is the kid a stud never having tossed game in the majors??? Where do people get this stuff.??? LOL. BOL to all, and good night men.

He was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before the season and he was great at Triple-A this year. Red Sox said publicly this is a spot start, but I think he will stick given the state of the Boston rotation.

[SteveKerrsJunk]

both pitchers dealing, martinez the real deal LT?

[LT Profits]

both pitchers dealing, martinez the real deal LT?

No, Red Sox have had runners on every inning and had a guy picked off. Part of Martinez's "luck" factor before the game was a staggering 81.4% strand rate, and that has actually gone up this game so far.

Meanwhile Rodriguez has only allowed one baserunner and only two hard hit balls as far as I can tell, with one being the double by Hamilton and the other a foul ball by Moreland.

[EVfollower]

Don't like either team here. Took the draw option +800 for $750. Looks good so far.

[LT Profits]

Red Sox score in the fifth, I now have a shot at my 5-inning play for starters.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Mag read between the lines brutha I did put it in quotes after all. So a guy can't be given some love or shown respect based on what he's done in college or triple A as a highly regarded prospect? Looks like this "young stud" has Tex batters under his control tonight!

[SteveKerrsJunk]

No, Red Sox have had runners on every inning and had a guy picked off. Part of Martinez's "luck" factor before the game was a staggering 81.4% strand rate, and that has actually gone up this game so far.

Meanwhile Rodriguez has only allowed one baserunner and only two hard hit balls as far as I can tell, with one being the double by Hamilton and the other a foul ball by Moreland.

That's a solid stat LT.

[drfunkmaster]

thats it its done..

[R.P. McMurphy]

Guess it makes sense even tho your from Boston area I see you bagging on Sox all the time. Guess your not a homer which is perfectly fine Looks like I was on right call with the under too bad I didn't hit it. Smh

[LT Profits]

5 innings is a winner as the kid strikes out the side. Now need Red Sox full game for at worst a 2-1 game for me as I will probably lose the Over 9.

[R.P. McMurphy]

I'm impressed so far! 5ko's/1bb, only given up 1 hit and no runs thru 5. Had Tex hitters swatting at flies in 5th lol after already getting a look. Not too shabby!

[Amadeo-Picks]

Boston taking this. 2-0 lead. Like I said from the beginning top good to be true

[Amadeo-Picks]

But Martinez is REAL. Say what u will about him but stats do the talking in the end. Not wins and losses on their record.