When was the last time a -300 line lost in baseball

[Amadeo-Picks]

last year there were more than a few -300 lines , some on kershaw, Felix and I belive Sale. And they all won. Does anyone recall a line -300 not hitting ? U have to go before last year that's for a fact

[posey]

8/30 2013. Darvish -330 vs Liam Hendricks (MIN) 2-3.
8/27 2013. Kershaw -310 vs Travis Wood (CHC) 2-3.
There were 5 losers overall in 2013. Darvish (2x, 2nd time was vs Keuchel, HOU), Kershaw, Price (vs Cosart, HOU) and Scherzer (vs Keuchel, HOU).

[Amadeo-Picks]

Good find ! I thought u woulda had to go back a couple years back

[posey]

Nah. :-) But it fluctuates a lot. In 2012 and 2011 was only 1 combined. But in 2010 and 2009 there were a combined 14 losers with odds of -300 or higher.

[Amadeo-Picks]

I've only been betting baseball since last year so I wouldn't know lol. What are ur thoughts on tonight games ?

[posey]

Only on my mobile so pls view my posts in the SDQL-thread and DOD-thread. Don't play anything else today.

[44 Mag]

8/30 2013. Darvish -330 vs Liam Hendricks (MIN) 2-3.
8/27 2013. Kershaw -310 vs Travis Wood (CHC) 2-3.
There were 5 losers overall in 2013. Darvish (2x, 2nd time was vs Keuchel, HOU), Kershaw, Price (vs Cosart, HOU) and Scherzer (vs Keuchel, HOU).

Not last year though???

[Conqueror]

Regardless of the record I think it's absolutely stupid to lay -300 on a baseball game no matter the matchup.

[44 Mag]

8/30 2013. Darvish -330 vs Liam Hendricks (MIN) 2-3.
8/27 2013. Kershaw -310 vs Travis Wood (CHC) 2-3.
There were 5 losers overall in 2013. Darvish (2x, 2nd time was vs Keuchel, HOU), Kershaw, Price (vs Cosart, HOU) and Scherzer (vs Keuchel, HOU).

And I doubt "Mad Max" loses tonight. Not quite -300, but pretty close.

[44 Mag]

Regardless of the record I think it's absolutely stupid to lay -300 on a baseball game no matter the matchup.

"Wise Guys" do it all the time. If you have the money, no issue with me???? The line is always there to scare away the average guy, who says: " I am not laying that kind of juice". Which would make sense if you don't have the cash. But at the end of the day, who wins the game is the only question.

[Amadeo-Picks]

"Wise Guys" do it all the time. If you have the money, no issue with me???? The line is always there to scare away the average guy, who says: " I am not laying that kind of juice". Which would make sense if you don't have the cash. But at the end of the day, who wins the game is the only question.

Agree . If you have the money to lay it and not affect ur bank even if doesn't hit then you should play it.

[Conqueror]

Agree . If you have the money to lay it and not affect ur bank even if doesn't hit then you should play it.

You have a point there but the issue is such lines are mostly based on starting pitcher matchup. There's always no guarantee that even when a SP pitched well, the team will do it's part with the scoring.

[posey]

Not last year though???

Nope. No loser in '14. But sample size is way too small over the last few years to draw conclusions.

[posey]

You have a point there but the issue is such lines are mostly based on starting pitcher matchup. There's always no guarantee that even when a SP pitched well, the team will do it's part with the scoring.

Exactly. In nearly all losses from above the SP was doing well but the offense struggled and couldn't back him up.

[Conqueror]

Exactly. In nearly all losses from above the SP was doing well but the offense struggled and couldn't back him up.

Exactly! I've seen the likes of Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, etc., pitch so well as huge favorites and their teams lose by scores like 0-1 or 1-2.

[44 Mag]

You have a point there but the issue is such lines are mostly based on starting pitcher matchup. There's always no guarantee that even when a SP pitched well, the team will do it's part with the scoring.

OK, let me give you an example of betting pitchers. Max is starting, always has been one of the best 6-7 inning pitchers in the majors. That is because that asshole Leylad always took his pitchers out of the game, except Verlander in his prime (which is gone). It wasn't until last year or the year before Max got his FIRST complete game in the majors??? After all these years. This guy can go nine, just like Kershaw and Price and so on. Strike out pitchers always throw more pitches than anybody. Yesterday I heard an announcer , former player, ask, where is the rule a guy has to come out after 100-110 pitches???? Good question. Anyway, I am all over the map here. My point was Max is -275 today for 1st 5 innings and -270 for the game??? Now, if he had to rely on that "bullshit pen" in Detroit, that could be an issue. So again, you got the money??? You go with Max, not mention the superior team here at home and overall.

[44 Mag]

Exactly! I've seen the likes of Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, etc., pitch so well as huge favorites and their teams lose by scores like 0-1 or 1-2.

Felix plays for Seattle, enough said, especially over the years they have had no offense. Not sure about Roy, he bounced around at the end??? Lee pitched for the Philly's??? Do we even have to go there. LOL.

[VegasPlayer]

Exactly. In nearly all losses from above the SP was doing well but the offense struggled and couldn't back him up.

Best pitched game I ever attended was SDG/AZ Kevin Brown Vs The Unit. 1-1 after 9. 2-1 after 10. Kim got the win.

[rollemvegas]

A couple years ago the angels vs astros series the angels were -300 range the whole 3 game series and got swept by the astros.

[Amadeo-Picks]

Who were the starting pitchers for angels ?

[rollemvegas]

Weaver, Wilson and I'm not sure of the other.

[RollinDo]

Agree . If you have the money to lay it and not affect ur bank even if doesn't hit then you should play it.

Mag and I both play a lot of Kershaw games at around -250.
After April, it's pretty easy $$.
I calculated last year if you bet Kershaw -1 every game after April, you would have made a nice little profit...not huge, but it's not a lot of work...just let him work 4 ya...This season, waiting for him to get hot before I play him again...though we plated him at -295 a couple games back and cashed.

[Blue Dream]

The focus shouldn't just be on how many -300 lost but out of how many. To just break even on -300 bets you need to go 75% and once you get over that your getting 33.33 for ever 100 dollar bet. Even if your rich that doesn't should like a sound investment which in reality of probability, the game is still at 50-50 either way. Don't forget whos telling you it is a sure thing, the sportsbooks. Like posey was saying the sample size for this kind of bet is small and I feel is irrelevant since baseball is a fluid game. Even David beats Gulyth sometimes.....

[posey]

Mag and I both play a lot of Kershaw games at around -250.
After April, it's pretty easy $$.
I calculated last year if you bet Kershaw -1 every game after April, you would have made a nice little profit...not huge, but it's not a lot of work...just let him work 4 ya...This season, waiting for him to get hot before I play him again...though we plated him at -295 a couple games back and cashed.

Yeah, that would have made you a 3% ROI until now. And this can change very fast. I told you a few weeks ago that autoplays are dumb. But seems like you can't be convinced. What's when Kershaw has problems all year long? This +ROI will turn into a -ROI faster than you will notice.