" Dog of the Day"

[trobin31]

Dont know if something is wrong with him at all.... When you look at his Sabermetrics his FIP and BABIP and both around where his career numbers have been. His control numbers (k/9 and BB/9) are actually a little better this year then his career average. So why the bloated ERA??? If you look at his LOB% it is almost 10 points below his average and his HR/FB is 6 or 7 points higher than his average. Could simply be that he has been unlucky and hasn't been able to come up with those timely outs with runners on or that when he is missing, he is missing badly.

Judging by the above stats I would tend to agree with Banker that his LOB% and HR/FB numbers will come back closer to his average sooner than later and as a result he will see more quality outings and his ERA will come down.

His FIP over the past 3 starts are 7.9, 6.9and 7.3 according to fangraph which is way off from his career 4.3 so not sure how you see this not being off from baseline? I've watched his last few starts as well and the guy is leaving balls up in the zone alot and hitters seem to know what's coming half the time. Again just trying to understand what you guys are looking at that I am missing, thanks for the input.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Every player (excluding pen of course) and manager on Bravos team should be given bars of soap wrapped in wet towels after gm and unmercifully beat every member of that pen Full Metal Jacket style. And I'm not even kidding

[bob6199]

Every player (excluding pen of course) and manager on Bravos team should be given bars of soap wrapped in wet towels after gm and unmercifully beat every member of that pen Full Metal Jacket style. And I'm not even kidding

well the Mets MGMT are the same idiots who are starting GEE for some bizarre reason, they have 5 starters, Harvey, Thor, Degrom, Colon, and Niese, Gee has no business being in that rotation...

[R.P. McMurphy]

End of day my own fault. I know about Braves pen and 1h was a better play no doubt. Oh well didn't expect their shit offense to score 8 either so maybe we can get some more....

[twestacott]

His FIP over the past 3 starts are 7.9, 6.9and 7.3 according to fangraph which is way off from his career 4.3 so not sure how you see this not being off from baseline? I've watched his last few starts as well and the guy is leaving balls up in the zone alot and hitters seem to know what's coming half the time. Again just trying to understand what you guys are looking at that I am missing, thanks for the input.

I have not personally seen any of those starts so you may be right. I would say FIP alone is not enough to tell you the whole story about those starts and is more an indicator that those bad outings were not just a result of his team bailing on him defensively. Now when you look at his FIP combined with his inflated HR/FB numbers for those 3 starts then I think that is a better indication that you maybe correct in him either leaving pitches up in the zone or the hitters getting a good look at them. His BB/9 were also up with the exception of his last start as well which lends itself to poor control as you suggested. I just think that when you look at those numbers from his last 3 starts and see how far out of whack they are from his baseline that you have to assume either he is hurt or he will rebound back closer to his career baseline. If he gets shelled again today and goes to the DL or the bullpen to work his shit out so be it.

I think basically part of this is also answering the question of whether Heston is a +130 better than De La Rosa considering the funk the Giants and there offense has been in or is the line overpriced on the Giants because Heston is coming off a no hitter?

[twestacott]

Naaa, I'm not saying it doesn't qualify nor is it for me to do so. However, I do try to tail the hot cappers and have been unable to do so the previous 3 games, with the exception of live action. Wish I'd caught braves +bajillion live yesterday!

No worries man I completely get that and if you have any questions about a pick or you have any insight to add feel free to chime in. Most of the regulars on this thread are more than willing to discuss the reasoning behind their picks when time allows for it. You might want to check out Leetreaper's thread as well as he has been on fire the past couple of weeks and is amongst the top guys on this thread in terms of record, units and ROI.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3097271-mlb-2015-a-p20.html

[kosmos4]

Ytd: 0-0

6/14
Colorado +110

i strongly believe that by the end of the all star break, jorge dela rosa is going to be the rockies' ace pitcher this season

Jorgeeeeeeeee!

1-0
+1.1 units

[leetreaper]

No worries man I completely get that and if you have any questions about a pick or you have any insight to add feel free to chime in. Most of the regulars on this thread are more than willing to discuss the reasoning behind their picks when time allows for it. You might want to check out Leetreaper's thread as well as he has been on fire the past couple of weeks and is amongst the top guys on this thread in terms of record, units and ROI.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...015-a-p20.html

[mrginandtonic]

Another loss....

Gonna take Hamels at this price....

6/14

PHI @ +126

YTD 22-30. +1.43

I really don't know why I keep playing a team that can't even hit a fvkkin beach ball. 😡

YTD. 22-31. + 0.43

[twestacott]

Nationals FF -0.5, +101 on 5 Dimes

Masterpiece by Scherzer.

25-16, +15.36

[leetreaper]

Masterpiece by Scherzer.

25-16, +15.36

Good call man, had them as a lean and didn't play, too easy, sigh...

[incognitoh]

took a couple of days off... But back now.

6/14: Detroit +125

ytd: 27-25 +7.87

i know kluber has been great lately but his era is 4+ against the tigers the last 3 years and 4+ in day games and road games while simon's era is 3.00 against the indians and below 2.30 in day games and home this year. So, to me, it looks like a good shot to take at plus money.

Bol!

ytd: 28-25 +9.12

[AchillesTG]

Record 20-10 $15.45 Units

Gonna stay with the Hot Team

Toronto +109 (Mysportsbook.ag)
MLB [General]
06/14/15 12:35 PM ET

That was one of the most stress free plays I have had all year.

Record 21-10 $16.54 Units

[trobin31]

I have not personally seen any of those starts so you may be right. I would say FIP alone is not enough to tell you the whole story about those starts and is more an indicator that those bad outings were not just a result of his team bailing on him defensively. Now when you look at his FIP combined with his inflated HR/FB numbers for those 3 starts then I think that is a better indication that you maybe correct in him either leaving pitches up in the zone or the hitters getting a good look at them. His BB/9 were also up with the exception of his last start as well which lends itself to poor control as you suggested. I just think that when you look at those numbers from his last 3 starts and see how far out of whack they are from his baseline that you have to assume either he is hurt or he will rebound back closer to his career baseline. If he gets shelled again today and goes to the DL or the bullpen to work his shit out so be it.

I think basically part of this is also answering the question of whether Heston is a +130 better than De La Rosa considering the funk the Giants and there offense has been in or is the line overpriced on the Giants because Heston is coming off a no hitter?

Thanks, I appreciate ur feedback.

[twestacott]

Looking at lines for tomorrow and Toronto, Atlanta and Yankees all look real under priced to me for anyone that wants to buy in early on some good looking dogs. Most of these probably move towards favorites overnight or before game time tomorrow so worst case scenario you could probably hedge them by tomorrow afternoon for a small profit.

[leetreaper]

Jays are dogs AGAIN to freaking Mets with a rookie pitcher??? WTF is Vegas smoking? UNRAEL.

[larry040681]

21-22 +7.39

dod: cws rl +140 5d

21-23 +6.39

[twestacott]

That was one of the most stress free plays I have had all year.

Record 21-10 $16.54 Units

Looks like they are opening tomorrow as slight dog/pickem again. How is it that a team on an 11 game win streak can't get a line as a favorite like 4 days straight? It's like the books are okay with handing out plus money on the Jays.

[twestacott]

Jays are dogs AGAIN to freaking Mets with a rookie pitcher??? WTF is Vegas smoking? UNRAEL.

Already on it Last. I would expect public moves them to a favorite overnight. Even the most casual gambler has to have them on autobet after 11 straight.

[kosmos4]

Lohse is just +105 against Volquez?

[trobin31]

6/15
NYY RL +115 5dimes

6-17; -769

[fitguy67]

last: 1-0, +1.35
ytd: 1-2, -0.65

6/14, Sunday
TEX-1.5, +175 (5dimes)

last: 0-1, -1.00
ytd: 1-3, -1.65

[Broncos]

6/15

atl +148

DOD: 8-9 (+1.20u)

[red12sox]

Tigers +124

16-16 +5.53

[red12sox]

A lot of pretty big favorites today. 1st glance I like nats but not much else.

[LT Profits]

Monday:

Rangers +101 (5 Dimes)

21-35, -6.71

[Jimmy244]

White soxs +160

[Hudini]

5-8 -1.36

06/10 nyy -1rl +116

5-9 -2.36

06/15 bal -1,5 rl +114

[BamaCBass]

No worries man I completely get that and if you have any questions about a pick or you have any insight to add feel free to chime in. Most of the regulars on this thread are more than willing to discuss the reasoning behind their picks when time allows for it. You might want to check out Leetreaper's thread as well as he has been on fire the past couple of weeks and is amongst the top guys on this thread in terms of record, units and ROI.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...015-a-p20.html

[AchillesTG]

Following are the updated MLB Bullpen Stats (6/15/15) for those that like to check them regularly.
No big surprise, Boston and Atlanta dropped in the standings.

*** I may have reached a point where I will not make a RL Play unless the BP is in the Top 10***
These collapses lately have bitten many of us.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[AchillesTG]

Jays are dogs AGAIN to freaking Mets with a rookie pitcher??? WTF is Vegas smoking? UNRAEL.

Reminds me of the Fish when the GM took over as Manager, they were Favs 4 games in a row, and Vegas just gave us free dog money!

[Educ8d Degener8]

Frank Liriano a heavy fav AGAIN?! ChiSox lookin like a play...

[kosmos4]

6/15

ytd 1-0 (+1.1u)

Mil +120

[Yazworm91]

Winner!

13-13 +4.01 units


6/14

Arizona +135

im taking the Dbacks for the sweep. Other leans are Colorado, Tampa Bay and Seattle.

Winner!

14-13 +5.36 units


6/15

No official pick yet, I'm watching the Wash/Tb game. I like the Rays just hoping the line keeps moving down and pushes them to a dog.

[twestacott]

Reminds me of the Fish when the GM took over as Manager, they were Favs 4 games in a row, and Vegas just gave use free dog money!

Speaking of weird lines what going on with the Atlanta/Boston line????? How does a team that is in last place in their division and has lost 6 in a row open as a -135 favorite against anyone and then move almost 40 points even further into favorite territory? I get that Atlanta hasnt been playing well on the road either and they have had a couple of games blown by the bullpen over the weekend but did the book makers see any of the RedSox game against Toronto yesterday? Not to mention that Procello has been a gas can this year and has given up 5 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts.