I've been lurking and tailing some smart people on here along w/ live betting since I usually don't have time to cap my own games any more. Gonna try my luck (since I am not even sure I have the skills any more) and play some games I believe has a decent shot.
In StL, Simon vs Lackey w/ who are both 12-8. "The Reds (61-64) have dropped eight of 10 and 15 of 20 on the road heading into Tuesday night. They've also lost seven of 10 to the Cardinals this season and seven of their last nine games in St. Louis." (ESPN Preview) Simon is facing StL for the 1st time and Lackey will face the Reds for only the 2nd time in 12 seasons. Simon is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three road starts and 0-5 with a 5.46 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. Since being acquired from Boston, Lacky is 1-1 with a no decision and has an ERA of 6.16 and a WHIP of 1.58. Season stats for both pitchers are Lackey 3.30 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.31 KP9, 2.13 BBP9, .300 BABIP, and .421 SLG; Simon 3.52 xERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.59 KP9, 2.49 BBP9, .252 BABIP, and .374 SLG. Rotowire reported back in June that Simon's ERA and WHIP were both "pretty" but they didn't buy it and projected he was overachieving and would regress which he has. I see 2 pitchers heading in opposite directions w/ Lackey being on top.
StL as a team is batting .277, .312 BABIP, .392 SLG, w/ 26 runs in their L5 games. Reds are batting .247, .275 BABIP, .397 SLG, w/ 25 runs in their L5 games. Bullpen #s in their L5 games, StL has an ERA 6.00, 1.87 WHIP, 7.20 KP9, 8.40 BBP9 w/ 10 runs scored in their L5 games. While the Reds' Bullpen has an ERA of 12.00, 2.50 WHIP, 4.50 KP9, 7.50 BBP9, and 17 runs scored in their L5 games. Reds are coming off series vs Colorado (last place in WC standings), BOston and Miami, 2 of the 3 have losing records and Miami is exactly at .500. StL is coming of series vs SDG, Miami and Balt and has split their W/L w/ one team w/ a losing record, a division leader, and a wild card hopeful (Mia @ 3.5 games back who is hot atm winning 7 of their L10 games).
Play here is to take the O7.5 w/ both teams having shown they can score vs some average pitching lately and both starting pitchers showing some average to below #s recently. Bullpens also support this theory. I believe the home team w/ the veteran pitcher should pull away by at least 2 runs, so I am taking StL -1.5 for a smaller play.
Cin/StL O7.5 -115 to win 300
StL -1.5 +130 to win 130
Here's 2 other plays I like but won't go into detail...
Bos +112 to win 112
NYM/Oak U7 EV to win 200
BoL to all and keep on collecting.
In StL, Simon vs Lackey w/ who are both 12-8. "The Reds (61-64) have dropped eight of 10 and 15 of 20 on the road heading into Tuesday night. They've also lost seven of 10 to the Cardinals this season and seven of their last nine games in St. Louis." (ESPN Preview) Simon is facing StL for the 1st time and Lackey will face the Reds for only the 2nd time in 12 seasons. Simon is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his last three road starts and 0-5 with a 5.46 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. Since being acquired from Boston, Lacky is 1-1 with a no decision and has an ERA of 6.16 and a WHIP of 1.58. Season stats for both pitchers are Lackey 3.30 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.31 KP9, 2.13 BBP9, .300 BABIP, and .421 SLG; Simon 3.52 xERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.59 KP9, 2.49 BBP9, .252 BABIP, and .374 SLG. Rotowire reported back in June that Simon's ERA and WHIP were both "pretty" but they didn't buy it and projected he was overachieving and would regress which he has. I see 2 pitchers heading in opposite directions w/ Lackey being on top.
StL as a team is batting .277, .312 BABIP, .392 SLG, w/ 26 runs in their L5 games. Reds are batting .247, .275 BABIP, .397 SLG, w/ 25 runs in their L5 games. Bullpen #s in their L5 games, StL has an ERA 6.00, 1.87 WHIP, 7.20 KP9, 8.40 BBP9 w/ 10 runs scored in their L5 games. While the Reds' Bullpen has an ERA of 12.00, 2.50 WHIP, 4.50 KP9, 7.50 BBP9, and 17 runs scored in their L5 games. Reds are coming off series vs Colorado (last place in WC standings), BOston and Miami, 2 of the 3 have losing records and Miami is exactly at .500. StL is coming of series vs SDG, Miami and Balt and has split their W/L w/ one team w/ a losing record, a division leader, and a wild card hopeful (Mia @ 3.5 games back who is hot atm winning 7 of their L10 games).
Play here is to take the O7.5 w/ both teams having shown they can score vs some average pitching lately and both starting pitchers showing some average to below #s recently. Bullpens also support this theory. I believe the home team w/ the veteran pitcher should pull away by at least 2 runs, so I am taking StL -1.5 for a smaller play.
Cin/StL O7.5 -115 to win 300
StL -1.5 +130 to win 130
Here's 2 other plays I like but won't go into detail...
Bos +112 to win 112
NYM/Oak U7 EV to win 200
BoL to all and keep on collecting.