Re: Line movement--its importance (or lack thereof)...
here's a little discussion i was involved in a few days ago in the MMA sub-forum...i feel it equally applicable to all sports-betting markets...including baseball
seems identical in essence to the point made above by banker, but we're talking about a fight rather than a stick&ball game
early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d
my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize
if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis
the error that many make in this game that leads to much
...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we are
it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of)
here's a little discussion i was involved in a few days ago in the MMA sub-forum...i feel it equally applicable to all sports-betting markets...including baseball
seems identical in essence to the point made above by banker, but we're talking about a fight rather than a stick&ball game
early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d
my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize
if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis
the error that many make in this game that leads to much
...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we areit IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of
)
