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  • fitguy67
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-13-11
    • 5082

    #911
    Re: Line movement--its importance (or lack thereof)...

    here's a little discussion i was involved in a few days ago in the MMA sub-forum...i feel it equally applicable to all sports-betting markets...including baseball

    seems identical in essence to the point made above by banker, but we're talking about a fight rather than a stick&ball game

    Originally posted by Bumdeal
    Andrew Craig vs Camozzi really sticks out here for me. I believe Andrew rebounds after his loss to Barnatt. Waiting to see if the line moves in my favor and will be taking Craig.
    Originally posted by fitguy67

    early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d

    my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize

    if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis

    the error that many make in this game that leads to much ...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we are

    it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of )
    Originally posted by Wilbo86


    I will say that late money, especially in high profile fights, is usually a little on the dumb side and running with the herd.
    Originally posted by Wilbo86

    Conversely, early money especially close to line opening is usually smart money. Thats the way i see it anyway
    Comment
    • Big Bear
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-01-11
      • 43253

      #912
      Originally posted by No coincidences
      Talk about bizarro world -- Pads getting blanked by Jordan Lyles the day after hammering Max Scherzer. Go figure.
      Jordan Lyles has some good stuff.
      Comment
      • fitguy67
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-13-11
        • 5082

        #913
        similarly, here's something i posted just a few days ago about consensus-% numbers and the RLM concept that emerges when they're combined with line-movement observations...again, it was precipitated in another sports-betting context (a women's tennis match, of all things)...but I feel the issues raised are applicable to any bettable event

        again, i come down firmly on the side that focuses on the boring "ignore all the patterns in the tea-leave scum and smoke trails...and pay exclusive attention to the percentage likelihood of the event cashing for you vs. the percentage buried in the best book-price available to you on that event"...

        Originally posted by fitguy67

        the main thing wrong with most of these sorts of "consensus %" figures is that they're generally based on % of the number of total bets in a market...not on % of the total $-value bet in that market...

        the latter would be FAR more useful than the former (as markets are clearly not "one bettor/one vote" nor even "one bet/one vote"...they are a much different animal: "one dollar/one vote")...but the books of course do NOT release hard data on this, on purpose...but seem to be happy to release figures of questionable/self-serving "accuracy" on the far less useful/far more misleading former

        noting "reverse line movement" (RLM) when price changes are going counter to changes in PUBLICIZED bet% is a feeble attempt to know when the BIG (assumedly smart) money bet by the handful of well-informed/well-capitalized goats is going on the opposite side of the majority of poorly-informed/low-capitalized sheep...

        i suspect many such cases of obvious (to those who like to think of themselves as "sharp") RLM are "manufactured" or at least magnified to attract/"trap" RLM-chasers on the side desired by the books...whether to simply balance their books=reduce their risk or in keeping with their own profit-seeking risk-accepting "opinion" on the market...

        compared to the books who actually HAVE the $-figures...even the sharpest of cats who try to ESTIMATE them based on information released by their enemy, the books...are, well...square as fukk...

        perhaps even squarer than those of us who just ignore/suspect as manipulated bullshit all published consensus-% figures (and massagings thereof)...and choose instead to rely on the fundamentals of the matchup in relation to the market prices available
        taken together my last two posts can be summarized/intelligently extended as follows:
        1. money that moves prices may or may NOT be smarter than you
        2. consensus numbers ain't worth a bucket o' warm spit...
        3. BTCL is not important...
        4. developing accuracy in determining your likelihood of winning a bet (aka. capping) is important
        5. line-shopping is important (the greater is the mismatch between your capped win% and that locked into the price="your edge"...the better)
        6. once you've locked in what your capping and shopping skills say is a good deal...u've done your job...let money (smart and stupid) move the price around till it closes...and let the game be played...
        7. how smart you are is NOT determined by where the price closed versus the price you got...or by the result of tonight's game...but over your entire betting career...your long-term yield will tell you just what overall "edge" your perception/shopping skills has generated...think in terms of seasons of sports (not games) as the building blocks of your record
        Last edited by fitguy67; 04-15-14, 12:38 AM.
        Comment
        • Big Bear
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-01-11
          • 43253

          #914
          Comment
          • fitguy67
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-13-11
            • 5082

            #915
            hey NC, i'll gladly replace both #911 and #913 above with "nm" if it's distracting/cluttering...

            i thought it might be apropos the earlier RLM-nattering aimed at TommyK...banker explaining how he value-shops for STL games (intentionally ignoring line-movement, other than how it affects his edge), and the groundless flak he got over it...and your increasing dismay over BTCL...

            but now that i look at it...may be a bit much for a primarily "picks" thread

            say the word and i'll clear it out
            Comment
            • JBC33
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-14-13
              • 110

              #916
              New York Yankees -1.5 RL. +100, risking .5u, YTD (1-0) +1U
              Comment
              • No coincidences
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-18-10
                • 76300

                #917
                Originally posted by fitguy67
                similarly, here's something i posted just a few days ago about consensus-% numbers and the RLM concept that emerges when they're combined with line-movement observations...again, it was precipitated in another sports-betting context (a women's tennis match, of all things)...but I feel the issues raised are applicable to any bettable event

                again, i come down firmly on the side that focuses on the boring "ignore all the patterns in the tea-leave scum and smoke trails...and pay exclusive attention to the percentage likelihood of the event cashing for you vs. the percentage buried in the best book-price available to you on that event"...



                taken together my last two posts can be summarized/intelligently extended as follows:
                1. money that moves prices may or may NOT be smarter than you
                2. consensus numbers ain't worth a bucket o' warm spit...
                3. BTCL is not important...
                4. developing accuracy in determining your likelihood of winning a bet (aka. capping) is important
                5. line-shopping is important (the greater is the mismatch between your capped win% and that locked into the price="your edge"...the better)
                6. once you've locked in what your capping and shopping skills say is a good deal...u've done your job...let money (smart and stupid) move the price around till it closes...and let the game be played...
                7. how smart you are is NOT determined by where the price closed versus the price you got...or by the result of tonight's game...but over your entire betting career...your long-term yield will tell you just what overall "edge" your perception/shopping skills has generated...think in terms of seasons of sports (not games) as the building blocks of your record
                Looks very accurate. I will have more time to eyeball this later. Thanks for posting it.
                Comment
                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #918
                  Originally posted by fitguy67
                  hey NC, i'll gladly replace both #911 and #913 above with "nm" if it's distracting/cluttering...

                  i thought it might be apropos the earlier RLM-nattering aimed at TommyK...banker explaining how he value-shops for STL games (intentionally ignoring line-movement, other than how it affects his edge), and the groundless flak he got over it...and your increasing dismay over BTCL...

                  but now that i look at it...may be a bit much for a primarily "picks" thread

                  say the word and i'll clear it out
                  No -- I'm glad you did. I'm always up for both discussion and reflection here. And if you aren't adjusting, you're dying in this game.
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #919
                    MIN +115 (1U to win 1.15)
                    CLE +143 (1U to win 1.43)
                    TB -104 (1.04U to win 1)
                    PIT -108 (1.08U to win 1)
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #920
                      2-0, +3.07U last night
                      37-30, +4.18U thread


                      Nice to wake up to that Pads' comeback victory from last night.
                      Comment
                      • RavensFan2k3
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-18-12
                        • 17378

                        #921
                        Im on two of those already, yeah! BOL to us tonight!
                        Comment
                        • mikmik
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 05-13-12
                          • 5457

                          #922
                          Any love for Philly, stl , fish +1.5,Rangers and angels?
                          Last edited by mikmik; 04-15-14, 11:36 AM.
                          Comment
                          • leetreaper
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 10-23-10
                            • 34841

                            #923
                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                            MIN +115 (1U to win 1.15)
                            CLE +143 (1U to win 1.43)
                            TB -104 (1.04U to win 1)
                            PIT -108 (1.08U to win 1)
                            Betting again on Hughes hehe...
                            Comment
                            • bababooey13
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-13-13
                              • 1897

                              #924
                              Originally posted by No coincidences
                              Fvcking Phil Hughes.

                              Last time. Never again.

                              What a piece of shit.
                              Comment
                              • jihadvillager
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-25-11
                                • 2134

                                #925
                                Cleveland Cancelled Due to rain, no makeup date yet.
                                Last edited by jihadvillager; 04-15-14, 01:34 PM.
                                Comment
                                • JBC33
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-14-13
                                  • 110

                                  #926
                                  Doubleheader for Wed. Cubs @ NYY
                                  Comment
                                  • Jesus33
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-07-14
                                    • 240

                                    #927
                                    Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                    Cleveland Cancelled Due to rain, no makeup date yet.
                                    thats some BS its sunny outside
                                    Comment
                                    • CappinTerp
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 11-26-09
                                      • 9650

                                      #928
                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                      Can't fukkin believe that I got -110 before lineups and I didn't get best price.. Mf'ers love betting against teams on streaks for some reason, I prefer winning w them till it ends. I guess if ya got the means to just keep firing against a team till they lose be my guest but that gotta get expensive sometimes!!
                                      Yea Bank I agree 100 %, one of my capping strategies : never bet on a hot team to loose and never bet on a cold team to win.!......................BOL
                                      Comment
                                      • PAULYPOKER
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-06-08
                                        • 36581

                                        #929
                                        Bank's the type that'll show up when the dance is over and the girls are gone,Lol.............
                                        Comment
                                        • Sixla
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-16-10
                                          • 1008

                                          #930
                                          Hey Coin, Brandon Gomes is now pitching tonight for Tampa, what do ya think?
                                          Comment
                                          • jihadvillager
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-25-11
                                            • 2134

                                            #931
                                            my TB bet got autocancelled cause of the change- Tampa seems to be postponed because of rain. Unreal 2 plays both cancelled cause of game postponement. lol
                                            Comment
                                            • Sixla
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-16-10
                                              • 1008

                                              #932
                                              don't matter TB game is postponed, along with 3 other games including Cleveland. Bummer.
                                              Comment
                                              • DALLASROB
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 09-30-13
                                                • 549

                                                #933
                                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                SD -116 (2.32U to win 2)
                                                PIT +118 (2U to win 2.36)
                                                BAL +107 (1U to win 1.07)
                                                PIT looking like a W but 5Dimes has it as a cancel. Anything be done in these situations?
                                                Comment
                                                • No coincidences
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 76300

                                                  #934
                                                  Originally posted by leetreaper
                                                  Betting again on Hughes hehe...
                                                  Originally posted by bababooey13
                                                  More like betting against Morrow, and the Twins are hot right now.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • No coincidences
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                    • 76300

                                                    #935
                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                    MIN +115 (1U to win 1.15)
                                                    PIT -108 (1.08U to win 1)
                                                    PIT -105 (1.05U to win 1)
                                                    MIA +1.5 +100 (1U to win 1)
                                                    Updated card so far.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • No coincidences
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                      • 76300

                                                      #936
                                                      Also lean Brewers and Dodgers, but passing on both.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • burmaldo
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 02-07-14
                                                        • 221

                                                        #937
                                                        Giancarlo just sent that to the moon
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DALLASROB
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 09-30-13
                                                          • 549

                                                          #938
                                                          Missed the MIA play
                                                          Comment
                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-18-10
                                                            • 76300

                                                            #939
                                                            Mike Leake sticking me again.

                                                            f\*\*k that guy.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • RavensFan2k3
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-18-12
                                                              • 17378

                                                              #940
                                                              Uhh come on Pit!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RavensFan2k3
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 08-18-12
                                                                • 17378

                                                                #941
                                                                Omg mike leake with a triple and now a homer!!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • No coincidences
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                                  • 76300

                                                                  #942
                                                                  Son of a bitch.

                                                                  Cole, you bum.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #943
                                                                    Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                                                    Omg mike leake with a triple and now a homer!!!
                                                                    Unbelievable.

                                                                    Seriously, this guy has just fvcked me over his whole career.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pettifogger
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 02-11-14
                                                                      • 51

                                                                      #944
                                                                      Leakey bomb
                                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                      Mike Leake sticking me again.

                                                                      f\*\*k that guy.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • No coincidences
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                                        • 76300

                                                                        #945
                                                                        And then of course, the Pirates strand runners at first and third.

                                                                        f\*\*k this.
                                                                        Comment
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