2014 MLB thread with friends

[No coincidences]

Agreed. But doesn't mean u should bet against the public with shit teams like Zona, Texas etc. Maybe just lay off of those. GL

"Shit" teams in baseball still win 40+ % of the time. If that doesn't match up with a line, I will bet it 10 times out of 10.

For instance, anyone laying that kind of juice with Washington tonight -- given the shape the Nats bullpen was in after yesterday -- was fvcking crazy. Yet they somehow got away with it. Good for them. In the long run, though, those kind of bets bury bankrolls. And those kind of bets have made me a killing in MLB.

It's so much more complicated than just taking the "better" team or the "better" pitcher. That's what most SBR posters will never understand.

[Pauulzcappin]

nationals games are to say the least entertaining to watch the last few days if you have no money riding

fukking weird shit been happening at that ballpark

[No coincidences]

Cards are about to finish off the worst night I've had in a while.

And literally every loss was a total coin flip.

[No coincidences]

f\*\*k it all.

[No coincidences]

Do the Cardinals ever not win in this type of fashion at home?

I really want to attack someone right now.

First Boston, then Arizona, now this bullshit.

Total LOB of the three teams I bet on and lost: 28.

Total LOB of the three lucky winners: 15.

[tatddy]

Coiner what you do works. It works every year. You're always a winner. What you do doesn't necessarily work in the short term. But you've proven that you're a winner every year when it's all said and done.

So maybe stop following/watching these games after you bet them and just check your balances the next day? Betting on bad baseball teams may be profitable but you sure don't seem to be enjoying following/watching the action the majority of the time.

Up your bet sizing a bit. Keep doing what you're doing. Stop watching the games. Take the wife on an extra vacation every 3 months.

Rinse.

Repeat.

[2daBank]

Baltimore is 70-52, yet they were +160 vs. the shitty 59-65 White Sox. You honestly think that was a "huge dog" to cash against the public? I don't care if Sale was pitching or not.

Braves? That was a virtual PK. No real difference there.

Bottom line: outside of Philly beating Seattle, this was a huge day for the public, culminated by this bullshit StL win.

why was cards win bs? admittedly i watched a lot more of the fb gm, switched over a few times but not a lot till extra innings but they outhit them, spotted masterson a 3-0 lead, beat a pen that was gassed, had it won till rosenthal blew it, then still managed to get it done.. i wasnt gonna bet it but live bet cards when they were down 4-3 just cause cincy pen was coming off lot of work at coors... you know i mean no disrespect, seeing how i didnt watch just would like to know why it was a bs win?

since ive been back on this week of course i been stopping in here just to see how you doing and i gotta say buddy you seem to be incredibly frustrated (more so than usual), i havnt even seen your record for the week or anything but maybe you outta give yourself a little breather just to refuel the jets before fb starts. take a 3 day weekend or just relax brother it might do ya some good..

you know ur my boy so dont take that wrong or anything as i mean no harm and certainly not trying to tell ya what to do, just a suggestion from a friend..

[2daBank]

Coiner what you do works. It works every year. You're always a winner. What you do doesn't necessarily work in the short term. But you've proven that you're a winner every year when it's all said and done.

So maybe stop following/watching these games after you bet them and just check your balances the next day? Betting on bad baseball teams may be profitable but you sure don't seem to be enjoying following/watching the action the majority of the time.

Up your bet sizing a bit. Keep doing what you're doing. Stop watching the games. Take the wife on an extra vacation every 3 months.

Rinse.

Repeat.

uncanny you wrote this as i was posting what i did..you said it better than me, but exactly same sentiment in the message

[No coincidences]

Coiner what you do works. It works every year. You're always a winner. What you do doesn't necessarily work in the short term. But you've proven that you're a winner every year when it's all said and done.

So maybe stop following/watching these games after you bet them and just check your balances the next day? Betting on bad baseball teams may be profitable but you sure don't seem to be enjoying following/watching the action the majority of the time.

Up your bet sizing a bit. Keep doing what you're doing. Stop watching the games. Take the wife on an extra vacation every 3 months.

Rinse.

Repeat.

When I'm posting regular updates, it's when I'm sitting at work, either watching games on the computer or following them live as I work on other stuff. I'm at a desk close to 60 hrs a week, tat, and I have the ability to either post at SBR when I'm working and/or follow the games I wager on while I'm in the middle of other projects. But yeah, in theory, I'd be better of betting and forgetting.

[No coincidences]

why was cards win bs? admittedly i watched a lot more of the fb gm, switched over a few times but not a lot till extra innings but they outhit them, spotted masterson a 3-0 lead, beat a pen that was gassed, had it won till rosenthal blew it, then still managed to get it done.. i wasnt gonna bet it but live bet cards when they were down 4-3 just cause cincy pen was coming off lot of work at coors... you know i mean no disrespect, seeing how i didnt watch just would like to know why it was a bs win?

since ive been back on this week of course i been stopping in here just to see how you doing and i gotta say buddy you seem to be incredibly frustrated (more so than usual), i havnt even seen your record for the week or anything but maybe you outta give yourself a little breather just to refuel the jets before fb starts. take a 3 day weekend or just relax brother it might do ya some good..

you know ur my boy so dont take that wrong or anything as i mean no harm and certainly not trying to tell ya what to do, just a suggestion from a friend..

No offense taken. Reds had a million chances to finish the Cardinals off and, like usual, didn't. I took them live really early when they were behind, but sure enough, as soon as they got the lead they went dormant. I was just more commenting on the one-run, extra-inning losses (two tonight, with the other missed wager being the Red Sox completely blowing every chance possible), so it was an ugly night. I didn't lose a ton overall because I hit with my biggest play in ATL, but there were so many chances and to not get anything out of the ARI, BOS and CIN bets was an absolute joke.

I'm doing great in MLB record-wise -- just sick of the incompetence and idiocy of some of these teams over and over again. Baseball's been a juice haven the past week or so, and it definitely continued tonight.

[No coincidences]

I appreciate the advice, guys. I really do. I've cooled off a little, but f\*\*k. Wish at least ONE of those three games would've bounced in my direction. I've lost 9 of my last 13 bets with games of the 1-run variety, so I suppose this blowup was just a week-plus worth of frustration boiling over. The grind is definitely getting to me a little.

[You mad bro]

Is Ervin Santana really going to blow a 6-0 lead?

Probably.

Boston is as un-clutch as it gets.

If 2013 taught us anything, it's that you can definitely fluke your way into winning a World Series ring.

This game is Boston's entire sorry season in a nutshell.

Ziegler's one of those guys who has a decent looking ERA, until you actually start looking at when he gives up those runs. He never gets a clutch out.

Arizona ML backers deserved better than that garbage.

Wow Boston.

You can't make this shit up.

Are they trying to lose?

I would use that term loosely. There really is no "heart" to Boston's order.

Solid AB by Cespedes.

This is just sheer comedy at this point with the Red Sox.

You couldn't try to be this bad with men on base. You really couldn't.

The next time I bet on Boston this season -- I'm talking about under any circumstances -- remind me of this night.

Un. Fvcking. Real.

This tweet pretty much sums up the Red Sox:

Farrell is a great skipper. Take out a starter w/ only 89 pitches for a reliever who's worked 10/15 August games. GREAT skipper! #RedSox

Tell me this isn't going to happen here too.

Wow.

Bases loaded and no one out and nothing? Really?

Put the fvcking bat on the ball.

What a night.

I feel like pounding someone's face in right now.

lol stop ... you are pounding your meat right now

Suck my fvcking c0ck, Washington.

Two days in a row. f\*\*k that motherfvcking team.

It would be all too fitting if Boston didn't score at all here.

I live bet the Reds at +220 a while back.

Can't wait to see how they f\*\*k this one up.

Unreal.

What a night. Wow.

So much for dogs barking after the ASB.

They're a bunch of fvcking trained chimps. The entire lot.

You've got to be fvcking kidding me.

Again.

f\*\*k it all.

someone is angry

Do the Cardinals ever not win in this type of fashion at home?

I really want to attack someone right now.

First Boston, then Arizona, now this bullshit.

Total LOB of the three teams I bet on and lost: 28.

Total LOB of the three lucky winners: 15.

When I'm posting regular updates, it's when I'm sitting at work, either watching games on the computer or following them live as I work on other stuff. I'm at a desk close to 60 hrs a week, tat, and I have the ability to either post at SBR when I'm working and/or follow the games I wager on while I'm in the middle of other projects. But yeah, in theory, I'd be better of betting and forgetting.

lol

[2daBank]

No offense taken. Reds had a million chances to finish the Cardinals off and, like usual, didn't. I took them live really early when they were behind, but sure enough, as soon as they got the lead they went dormant. I was just more commenting on the one-run, extra-inning losses (two tonight, with the other missed wager being the Red Sox completely blowing every chance possible), so it was an ugly night. I didn't lose a ton overall because I hit with my biggest play in ATL, but there were so many chances and to not get anything out of the ARI, BOS and CIN bets was an absolute joke.

I'm doing great in MLB record-wise -- just sick of the incompetence and idiocy of some of these teams over and over again. Baseball's been a juice haven the past week or so, and it definitely continued tonight.

right on was just curious bout cards gm (im assuming you got a really fat line on cincy when they were down so my next obvious question would be why not hit the cards when reds took lead and they were around +170? not trying to play after the fact qb or being critical just seems like the no brainer move on that 1)..

i knew you were doing well overall before i even asked ya last week as quite frankly id expect nothing less from you my friend, i really only pay attention to a handful of season long mlb threads of guys i like/respect on few sites but i doubt there anyone consistently posting anywhere that grinding out mlb seasons more successfully than you do year after year.. im sure wont be long till few of the 1 run games/tough beats start going back your way and you pushing up over the 100u mark once again, just try not to get too stressed in the meantime as you know this shit a roller coaster..

[twestacott]

What are your thoughts on the NYY/HOU game tonight? I am still trying to figure out how Capuano is getting a -160? The guy hasn't even won a start since coming to the Yankees and Oberholtzer has pitched well in August.

[2daBank]

What are your thoughts on the NYY/HOU game tonight? I am still trying to figure out how Capuano is getting a -160? The guy hasn't even won a start since coming to the Yankees and Oberholtzer has pitched well in August.

the over 8.5 looks so damn tempting at ev , fukker goes to plus money and i might have to be a sucker. i guess if my over lean in danger it would be because Cap has seemed to rediscover something since joining the spanks,, they seem to have the cardinals magic touch this year of finding vets off the scrap heap and rejuvenating them..read a pretty interesting article on fangraphs about what they may have possibly seen in mccarthy and have him throwing much higher rate of certain pitches, same thing with Cap pretty interesting how much more he throwing his changeup and slider and seems to be working.. i saw you sited him giving up 4 runs to balty but balty has one of the best if not the best lineup in baseball.. i dunno i generally like hou vs lefties but yanks hit lefties as well,, it prob over or nothing for me..

i guess nc taking breather,, this day insane too cause i swear besides yanks who i dont like damn near every lean i have is these fukkin -140 - -160 range huge public side plays but i cant find much reason to go against them..i mean i like cards cause lackey a stl kind of guy and simon smoke and mirror show has finally been getting exposed a little,, mariners look great as iwakuma outta carve philly up with a great under ump behind the dish, fish are too price but again i saw nothing to like bout tex and watched cosarts lasst start vs cards and i see why fish are high on him and not sure wtf hou gave him up for as he looked filthy that night.. i know all these favs not cashing.. pretty sure im gonna parlay cards/mariners and looking at pit -.5 ff,,then that damn hou/nyy over daring me..

[tatddy]

I'd be weary of betting much on any over with 2 lefties starting. The shutdown factor is much more significant.

[2daBank]

I'd be weary of betting much on any over with 2 lefties starting. The shutdown factor is much more significant.

normally i agree brother but both these clubs hit lefties better than righties,, i typically like hou when they facing lefties but yanks hit them as well..kinda think the lefty lefty factor what driving this line to downright daring me, lol..

[tatddy]

normally i agree brother but both these clubs hit lefties better than righties,, i typically like hou when they facing lefties but yanks hit them as well..kinda think the lefty lefty factor what driving this line to downright daring me, lol..

I hear ya man I have no horse in the race. Wait for ump assignments and if it's close to favorable go with your gut.

[2daBank]

neither are ground ball pitchers either and in that park,, man im tempted.. my biggest concern is yanks have found something with Cap's pitch selection that has him being more effective ...

[2daBank]

I hear ya man I have no horse in the race. Wait for ump assignments and if it's close to favorable go with your gut.

duplicate

[2daBank]

I hear ya man I have no horse in the race. Wait for ump assignments and if it's close to favorable go with your gut.

yea that pretty much what im doing seeing how the line going opposite of my lean anyway no rush..figure if it a big under guy ill pass, neutral and ill make a small play, gimmie a over cat tho and let it hit + money and think gotta take a little shot... thoughts on mariners/cards?

[2daBank]

emmel in bronx..certainly doesnt hurt over lean..

[tatddy]

emmel in bronx..certainly doesnt hurt over lean..

Guy is all over the map. Last year (or year before can't remember) he was the biggest over ump ever. This year his strike percentage is higher than usual and he's been an under ump to date.

The guy sucks basically.

[2daBank]

Guy is all over the map. Last year (or year before can't remember) he was the biggest over ump ever. This year his strike percentage is higher than usual and he's been an under ump to date.

The guy sucks basically.

yea my book little outdated as i been on break majority of summer..i have him as over guy, went and looked and noticed what you said that his k% is up and i think walks were down,, still have him 12-8 to the over this season i believe,,hell lets call him neutral cause my book says over lean but it outdated, clearly this yr not as much but still looks like middle of road k rate and still above avg walk %..

[Pauulzcappin]

I'd pound Atlanta hard tonight if it wasn't Harang pitching

[procapx]

Any plays today NC??

[Emancipator]

I'd pound Atlanta hard tonight if it wasn't Harang pitching

Pound the otherside, there's value on Pitt tonight.

[Pauulzcappin]

5d leaning mariners hard, pinny holding steady along with others

[2daBank]

Pound the otherside, there's value on Pitt tonight.

ff -.5 where im at..

[Pauulzcappin]

Pound the otherside, there's value on Pitt tonight.

a bit out of my price range

maybe a ml/rl play

[Pauulzcappin]

ff -.5 where im at..

good idea

kinda like the white sox pk ff as well

[2daBank]

5d leaning mariners hard, pinny holding steady along with others

i have them parlayed with stl and threw them in a round robin with some others. played a little on the rl as well..iwakuma with that ump outta mean lights out for philly hitters, hopefully shitty aj shows up..

[No coincidences]

MIN -101 (2.02U to win 2)
CHW -101 (2.02U to win 2)
TOR +143 (2U to win 2.86)
CHC +100 (1U to win 1)

[Pauulzcappin]

took ml ff tto and rl

hoping liriano doesn't bury me here

[Snake24]

MIN -101 (2.02U to win 2)
CHW -101 (2.02U to win 2)
TOR +143 (2U to win 2.86)
CHC +100 (1U to win 1)

with you on the Twins. GL