Taking Overs in MLB?

gui_m_p · 01-30-14, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by rankslash

Hi guys, got a question here.
I'm thinking about a chase system of betting overs in MLB.
For example we take:

Day 1: Boston RedSox to hit the Over - 1 Unit
Day 2: If Day 1 game was over, we will bet Boston RedSox to hit Over again in day 2 with 1 unit. If last game was Under we will bet 2 Units for Game 2.

If game 2 is under too, i will bet game 3 with 4 units, and then game 4 with 8 units. If game 4 stays Under too, i will start with 1 unit bet from game 5 (similar to Wallco NHL system?)

Do you see any value in this?

Sorry, but this is a kind of Martingale, and the system per si do not have any value. Read here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...etting_system)

It only got value if the picks (not the system) would be +EV.

Moreover, you will be increasing your chances to go bankrupt. Remember that great sequences of losses are expected in the long haul. For instance, in each 200 plays of picks with 50% you expect to see a sequence of 6 straight losses.

If you do this for a long time, probably one time you will broke.

rankslash · 01-30-14, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by gui_m_p

Sorry, but this is a kind of Martingale, and the system per si do not have any value. Read here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...etting_system)

It only got value if the picks (not the system) would be +EV.

Moreover, you will be increasing your chances to go bankrupt. Remember that great sequences of losses are expected in the long haul. For instance, in each 200 plays of picks with 50% you expect to see a sequence of 6 straight losses.

If you do this for a long time, probably one time you will broke.

Yes, i'm aware of that and completely agree.

That's why my second question was how often MLB teams make more than 5 straight Unders in a row? Basically, if i have less than 10 losing bets (after bet 4) the system will be profitable.

gui_m_p · 01-30-14, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by rankslash

Yes, i'm aware of that and completely agree.

That's why my second question was how often MLB teams make more than 5 straight Unders in a row? Basically, if i have less than 10 losing bets (after bet 4) the system will be profitable.

I don't know the data. But if you are inclined to go on with the system, you don't have to play the same team after a loss, play any team you think will hit under/over. Rememeber the events are independent, if Red Sox was O in one game it don't increases the chances to go U the next.

LT Profits · 01-30-14, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by rankslash

Yes, i'm aware of that and completely agree.

That's why my second question was how often MLB teams make more than 5 straight Unders in a row? Basically, if i have less than 10 losing bets (after bet 4) the system will be profitable.

It really doesn't matter because all it takes is two or three runs like that to cripple you, so even if the odds on 10 straight Unders are 0.5%, those runs WILL happen a couple of times in a long season like MLB.

gregm · 01-31-14, 02:18 AM

I just read a good article last night about cameras and the strike zone with PITCHf/x.

Basically more strike outs, less walks, a decrease in run numbers over the last 5 years. PED testing and an increased strike zone with pitch tracking technology grading umpires, it should be interesting to see to see these totals this year. Last year was an atrocious year for me betting overs, judging from my data.

The Strike Zone During the PITCHf/x Era

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-during-the-pitchfx-era/

For the first time online, here is Jon’s SABR Award-nominated essay from THT 2014.

RESULTS OF CALLED PITCHES IN THREE REGIONS OF INTEREST, BY YEAR

Year Balls Strikes Expected runs
2008 91,727 37,866 2,606
2013 85,556 42,456 1,892

rankslash · 01-31-14, 06:21 AM

I've got another idea... I saw that over 62 % of the games are 0-0 after the 1st inning. I was thinking about betting the Over Live in the 2nd inning of the games. For example if the line is 6.5 before the match. It will be around 5.5-6 after the first inning.

rankslash · 01-31-14, 11:48 AM

Can anyone give me the stats for the Overs/Unders for last season? I remember it was around 54-46 % Overs.

LT Profits · 01-31-14, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by rankslash

Can anyone give me the stats for the Overs/Unders for last season? I remember it was around 54-46 % Overs.

I have Under with the slight advantage.

Code:

Over Rank	Team 	Over	Under
1	LA Angels 	88	68
2	Oakland 	84	74
3	Philadelphia 	83	74
4	Seattle 	82	72
5	Detroit 	81	75
6	Houston 	80	76
7	St. Louis 	79	75
8	NY Mets 	79	77
9	Washington 	79	76
10	Toronto 	79	80
11	Tampa Bay 	76	78
12	Cincinnati 	76	79
13	Milwaukee 	76	82
14	Colorado 	76	77
15	San Diego 	75	82
16	Baltimore 	75	78
17	Cleveland 	74	81
18	Boston       	74	81
19	Atlanta 	73	81
20	LA Dodgers 	73	82
21	San Francisco 	73	80
22	Pittsburgh 	71	85
23	Arizona 	71	84
24	Minnesota 	70	87
25	Chi. White Sox 	69	84
26	Chi. Cubs 	68	86
27	NY Yankees 	67	85
28	Texas         	64	90
29	Miami         	62	83
30	Kansas City 	61	92
	Total          	2238	2404
	League       	1119	1202
	Pct.           	48.2%	51.8%

rankslash · 01-31-14, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I have Under with the slight advantage.

Code:

Over Rank    Team     Over    Under
1    LA Angels     88    68
2    Oakland     84    74
3    Philadelphia     83    74
4    Seattle     82    72
5    Detroit     81    75
6    Houston     80    76
7    St. Louis     79    75
8    NY Mets     79    77
9    Washington     79    76
10    Toronto     79    80
11    Tampa Bay     76    78
12    Cincinnati     76    79
13    Milwaukee     76    82
14    Colorado     76    77
15    San Diego     75    82
16    Baltimore     75    78
17    Cleveland     74    81
18    Boston           74    81
19    Atlanta     73    81
20    LA Dodgers     73    82
21    San Francisco     73    80
22    Pittsburgh     71    85
23    Arizona     71    84
24    Minnesota     70    87
25    Chi. White Sox     69    84
26    Chi. Cubs     68    86
27    NY Yankees     67    85
28    Texas             64    90
29    Miami             62    83
30    Kansas City     61    92
    Total              2238    2404
    League           1119    1202
    Pct.               48.2%    51.8%

Thanks man!

One more question, which lines do you use for your data? I remember a difference between the totals of 5dimes and bet365 by at least a 0.5 point.

LT Profits · 01-31-14, 03:43 PM

Pinny closers 99% of the time