2016: Grass court season, Including Wimbledon, picks

[Jeff_Black]

Continues from the clay season: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-picks-p8.html

ATP Stuttgart 250, R32
Grigor Dimitrov vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Moneyline: Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Stuttgart 250, R32
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Marcos Baghdatis
Set handicap: Marcos Baghdatis -1.5 sets @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Stuttgart 250, R32
Philipp Kohlscrieber vs Pierre Hughes-Herbert
Handicap: Philipp Kohlscrieber -3.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[w@lt]

Why do you like Dimitrov?

[fitguy67]

133

108

+20.791

+7.120%

292

ytd thru end of RG

[Jeff_Black]

Why do you like Dimitrov?

I wouldn't have taken it if the odds weren't close. I think it's more due to Del Potros reputation but also forgetting that he hasn't played on grass since 2013.
I am taking the slightly inflated odds because I think Dimitrov can bounce back from his dreadful clay campaign apart from a Final. Two years ago he had his best grass court season to date and pushed the world no 1 (2 then) in four sets.
I don't know if del Potro is expecting much on grass. Sure he had some nice wins on hards but I'm expecting Dimitrov to be the better player here.
TLDR version
- Dimitrov can be good on grass
- not expecting much from del Potro
- higher odds then usual against a guy who's had little matches
- expecting Dimitrov to bounce back a bit
- expecting del Potro to take us hards more seriously after grass

This is coming from a del Potro fan too

[w@lt]

Good takes. Thank you!

[Jeff_Black]

The bottom half of that draw is really open if he wants to seize the opportunity, chicken legs Simon and Cilic if he does best Del Potro, and if he does he should handle Pouille.

[maletaja]

I took Mug +1400 to win just too good odds to win Wimbeldon

[sport advisor]

lol dimitrov.. if someone ask to say best 10 females looking at wta dimitor would be in 6-8 place.. same with his play..

[fitguy67]

134

110

+19.716u

+6.683%

[Jeff_Black]

That was a pathetic effort from Dimitrov. Was always going to be hit or miss, today unfortunately it was a miss from him, might avoid in the time being.
I wonder if the pussycat dolls song that was being played at 4-3 had anything to do with distracting him. Lost several games in a row after that...

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Stuttgart 250, Mercedes Cup, R16
Philipp Kohlscrieber vs Denis Kudla
Set Handicap: Philipp Kohlscrieber -1.5 sets @ 1.649 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Hertogenbosch 250, Ricoh Open, R16
Bernard Tomic vs Aljaz Bedene
Handicap: Bernard Tomic -3.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

136

110

+21.355u=

+7.190%

of 297u

[Jeff_Black]

ATP s-Hertogenbosch 250, Ricoh Open, R16
Daniil Medvedev vs Adrian Mannarino
Handicap: Daniil Medvedev +3.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Stuttgart 250, Mercedes Cup R16
Dominic Thiem vs Sam Groth
Total Score: Under 24.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jsnep7]

In

BOL

[fitguy67]

136

112

19.355u

=6.473%

299u

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Stuttgart 250, Mercedes Cup, QF
Philipp Kohlscrieber vs Radek Stepanek
Set Handicap: Phillipp Kohlscrieber -1.5 sets @ 2.56 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Stuttgart 250, Mercedes Cup, QF
Dominic Thiem vs Mikhail Youhzny
Handicap: Mikhail Youzhny +2.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

138

112

+21.935u

=+7.287%

of 301u

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Stuttgart 250, Mercedes Cup, SF
Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Roger Federer -3.0 @ 1.757 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[gorwin068]

ATP Stuttgart 250, Mercedes Cup, SF
Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Roger Federer -3.0 @ 1.757 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Agree that Federer should win this match
But I took ML only...1.30

[badgerguy]

unreal, had Thiem +1.5 sets, up 5-0 in the 2nd set now will lose. I was already counting my $$$$. What a f'n joke this is.

[Jsnep7]

Agree that Federer should win this match
But I took ML only...1.30

strong avatar to post ratio

[Steamroller]

Thiem please kill yourself. I had 3 sets for the match and idiot can't finish the second set when up 5-0.

[Jsnep7]

Thats Thiem, great talent, big ups big downs. Had a great comeback yesterday against Youzhny.

[Steamroller]

He fkin did it. I don't believe it. There is justice in this world!

[Steamroller]

unreal, had Thiem +1.5 sets, up 5-0 in the 2nd set now will lose. I was already counting my $$$$. What a f'n joke this is.

Time to recount the money

[gorwin068]

Federer couldn't serve out at 7-6 in Tie Break got 2 match points in total
And now it is gone to Rain Delay...

[gorwin068]

gosh...now had two times of 40-15 lead on Thiem's two service games in final set, but couldn't break it...And now Federer is broken by Thiem 3-4...

[gorwin068]

strong avatar to post ratio

Could you please clarify what's wrong with posting decimal odds? I am from Australia, I use decimal odds on the bookmaker webpage. As I see Jeff is also posting with decimal odds, "Handicap: Roger Federer -3.0 @ 1.757". I am rather new to this forum, could you please clarify for me?

[gorwin068]

gosh...now had two times of 40-15 lead on Thiem's two service games in final set, but couldn't break it...And now Federer is broken by Thiem 3-4...

OK Federer lost 1-2 in the end...frustrating match

[fitguy67]

138

113

+20.935u

=+6.932%

of 302u

despite all the vicissitudes of tennis...investment-grade 2016 betting campaign being waged by Jeff

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah at the back of my mind I wondered whether Federer had the weather in mind and the fact he's playing in Halle the following week. Thiem goes out pretty hard every tournament so there was always a chance it'd happen.
And Thiem usually struggles to close out sets as well in the past I've seen.
Didn't bother yesterday cause of the potential weather. Might keep an eye out for it today if it's going to be good.

[Jeff_Black]

If anyone saw the match points during the tiebreak I thought to myself they were weird unforced errors, almost unnatural.
Like the one that Federer was supposed to back hand over the net instead of hitting it straight into it. Then it showed Ivan's disappointment at not getting it lol.
I mean I expect that from Nadal but Federer??? Hmmm

[Jeff_Black]

Also money line bets at 1.30 are almost never worth it unless you're doing spare change parlays/multis you don't care about.
I always look at it if I am doing something 1.20 or 1.30 singles with the same stake then to even be profitable you need to hit 70%+ of these wagers as compared to pick ems or the odd dog that is over 2-1.
The bookies want us to win between 40-60% of our wagers and 70% is nearly impossible regardless of how good one person thinks they are.
So with that said they definately don't set anything higher or lower then it should be to make it easier for us.
I'm sure fitguy can explain my logic better but that's why I never really post a lot less then 1.50 (I think a handful of times in my 2016 threads) for that reason

[fitguy67]

^here's a great odds/break-even probability calculator and tutorial

http://www.intensegambling.com/sports-betting/online/tools/odds-converter/

[Jeff_Black]

As always, a great and insightful link

ATP Halle, Gerry Weber Open 500, R1
Florian Mayer vs Brian Baker
Total Score: Over 21.0 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play