2016 Clay Court Season inc French Open Picks

[Jeff_Black]

Continues from: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-picks-p3.html

YTD Record: 73 - 60, +12.032u

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R1
Gerald Melzer vs Juan Monaco
Handicap: Juan Monaco -3.5 @ 1.840 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R1
Victor Estrela Burgos vs Hyeoun Chung
Moneyline: Victor Estrela Burgos @ 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

according to my spreadsheet, Jeff you've shortchanged your net units a bit by interchanging the digits

should be: 73-60, +12.302u

[Breadloser]

according to my spreadsheet, Jeff you've shortchanged your net units a bit by interchanging the digits

should be: 73-60, +12.302u

Must be a relief for you having old Matt gone.

[fitguy67]

yeah matt and his "this time i'll be real selective and post only a few plays a week" threads that ended up within hours like all the rest with a dozen plays before lunch, lol...just couldn't let a match go by unbet...

to be fair tho', Matt's only problem was falling in love with tennis...and it killed him...his first threads here were NHL and were solid as a rock, then after some initial success with tennis he got addicted to tennis betting, and when things turned sour with tennis, he just couldn't ease up on the trying to chase his tennis-losses and regain the ole'magic...i tried a number of times to get him to kick the tennis betting cuz of its around the clock addictiveness

if you are a matt1216-resurrection account, welcome back, pal...ur secret is safe with me, lol #cleanslate

[Jeff_Black]

Haha I have no idea who this matt bloke is.
I used to post my picks on another Aussie forum but found about Sbr and decided to give it a go and see what type of tennis cappers there were. Id rather focused discussion about tennis more then anything and it seems here there are people who know what they're talking about.
The issue with the other forum was lack of tennis cappers there were probably only about 2 or so I knew that followed it properly. Seems like everyone here is like that. The follows it properly bit

I tried betting on NHL but stopped bothering anyway as much as I love hockey I don't have the energy to bet on it let alone watch my team which I try my hardest to do.
I'd rather cap NFL NBA and baseball then hockey. Thanks for the concerns though hhaha, I'm def no chaser. Happy to take a break when needed.
Life long fan of tennis before I started betting on it

[Jeff_Black]

As for the short changing part, ummm whoops, I was adding it up on a calculator from 2001 so some of the buttons may have minds of their own haha

[Breadloser]

The NHL playoffs are a goldmine. We'll get some discussion going in a week or so.

As far as Matt is concerned, you can search through the old threads and it's pretty entertaining stuff.

[Jeff_Black]

Haha I might. I don't get how people can post 10 plays a day on tennis. Only exception where slightly more plays are posted are maybe the grand slams where there is a bonanza of matches to choose from...but 250 events? No way!
That and women's isn't my speciality, had too many stressful days in the office doing women's so 99% of my tennis bets will always be men's singles

As for the NHL playoffs I love them. Like I do with all playoffs, but I try to watch as many of those as I can as well as my own team (Canucks) who sadly won't be there this year 😞

[Breadloser]

Ironically the Canucks were Matts team also. He lives in Vancouver. Probably the worst management I've seen since the Islanders teams of the mid 90s.

[Jeff_Black]

Dang I walked into that, well if he goes for tthe Cowboys, Magic and Red Sox I wll be really creeped out!

[fitguy67]

actually, i was good-naturedly insinuating the possibility of Breadloser being the re-incarnation...a recent-join asking out of the blue about a legendary ex-poster's legacy...hmmm, lol

Jeff's super-disciplined slow roll is the very opposite of matt's swing-at-every-pitch compulsion
___________

if you sbr search threads started by matt1216 and look at his earliest tennis forays you'll probably find his sustained blast of what we later learned was beginner's positive variance...when whatever tickets you buy in a new sport are hitting at a much better clip than they should for a few months in succession your bankroll (and the esteem you have of your skill) grows inordinately rapidly and you develop a slew of bad habits that kill you when the tennis-cards dealt normalize...

an entertaining-to-read but tragically-long series of hopeful "this time I'll be selective and/or system-driven and the former magic is sure to return" threads...last I noticed the poor guy was machine-gun betting with whatever shitty prices 888 would hang on tennis, probably in exchange for an "attractive" bonus in an attempt to beef up the dwindling roll

if he's here under another name, i hope he'll stay away from the "round the clock" ticket-window of death that tennis is if you don't have high standards for value and instead see each match as a new stab in hope of catching the right side...
___________

keep up the slow profitable climb, Jeff

[fitguy67]

the one poster that was the tennis-forum's centre of gravity for years was EaglesPhan36...who i'm happy to report is alive and posting elsewhere under the same handle...definitely a great one to compare notes with

[Breadloser]

You've taking it upon yourself to be the accountant around here. I know you work over at the other place also. Felix was another guy who I remember from those threads. Your work in this thread is why I brought up Matt1216.

[fitguy67]

'saul good,

outside of MMA, i can't cap worth shit but i'm good with numbers/prob/stats...
so I keep my eye out for posters able to squeeze units out over time and help out where i can

two good tenny cappers from back in those days i relied on come to mind: Hardcoar and Kenz...but neither post their plays here with any regularity anymore

[Jeff_Black]

I always felt when you post your plays on a public forum it makes you more accountable for your actions and thus more disciplined. Obviously I see it that way, others may not heh.
That's why obviously it's ok if you go 0-2 or 1-2 some days on plays rather then in a rush without thought post three more plays to chase your losses. After going 0-2 or whatever.
some scenarios are different where following the money until half an hour before game is worthwhile to squeeze out a few more cents from the odds.

Tennis is year long anyway, plenty of tjme to build up a positive record.

None the less all positive comments and words are always accepted and appreciated as always. And track records

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R1
Michael Berrer vs Benjamin Becker
Handicap: Michael Berrer +2.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R1
Fernando Verdasco vs Carlos Berlocq
Total Score: Over 22.0 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stak: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Play has started and hopefully the odds will still be good (It was 6.50-1 on William Hill) but will give serious consideration for Garcia Lopez as an outright winner for Casablanca, also known as the "Marraketch Open" or "Grand Prix Hassan II"
Definately a mugs field there and despite being below .500 YTD his clay form has been more respectable in the past year and I expect him to improve on his early exit to surprise packed Ouahab.
Definately not worth more then a 1u play though.

[fitguy67]

still 6.25/1 on GGL at pinnacle...took some...his next match not till thursday it seems, against almagro

[Jeff_Black]

I'm gonna chuck a unit on it too.
Not as good with outrights but every while and then they're worth a shot for the value.
If this was the third or so week into clay season he'd be 3s or 4s.
I remember taking almagro in this spot last year at decent odds. Really he was the best player in the draw rankings and achievement wise and his form was good too.
But then out of nowhere he lost to Klizan haha.
Garcia lopez is definately a different beast on clay IMO anyway

[Breadloser]

Almagro wasn't highly ranked last year. He may have been out of the top 100 and given a wildcard or something.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah from memory he came back from a injury layoff, always a tough cookie but I dont rate him as a title contender anymore.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R16
Benoit Paire vs Juan Monaco
Handicap: Benoit Paire +2.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R16
John Isner vs Denis Kudla
Handicap: Denis Kudla +3.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Normally dont like taking on the big guy but his form has been wonky and its one of his first matches on clay so dont mind the spot.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Marrakech Open, Grand Prix Hassan II, R16
Guillermo Garcia Lopez vs Nicolas Almagro
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +3.0 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech Open, Grand Prix Hassan II, R16
Nikola Metkic vs Jiri Vesely
Handicap: Nikola Metkic +5.0 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R16
Fernando Verdasco vs Marcos Baghdatis
Handicap: Fernando Verdasco -2.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, R16
Jack Sock vs Matthew Barton
Set Handicap: Jack Sock -1.5 @ 1.574 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

[fitguy67]

for anyone confused, that's gotta be Sock -1.5 sets

and GGL comes thru!

[Breadloser]

Amazing work here. Go sweep the board tonight.

[Jeff_Black]

It was a nice patch apart from Verdasco's dodgyness. Tennis can be weird sometimes

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Marrakech Open, Grand Prix Hassan II, QF
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Federico Delbonis
Moneyline: Federico Delbonis @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Average board for the QF, much as I think Garcia Lopez will beat Vesely I think the line is a worry especially if he digs himself into a hole again.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, QF
Feliciano Lopez vs Tim Smyczek
Handicap: Tim Smyczek +4.0 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Mainly for that line in hope Im reading the odds movement right and getting it before Timmys odds shorten

[Don_Omarion]

way to go Jeff

do you agree on taking Garcia Lopez against Vesely tonight .. ML @-190

[Breadloser]

I think Vesely vs GGL is tough. The two played a close one last Spring on clay. I think GGL won 7-6, 7-6. It was a final though. Could it be a letdown spot after beating a more favored Almagro. I didn't see Vesely beat Cerventes, but he didn't impress against Metkic. You could argue he should have lost.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I think Garcia Lopez will win but not really confident in anything other then ML.
Parlay worthy perhaps but I wouldn't put multiple units on it like I did with Sock 2-0.
Yeah I remember their final last year. Vesely won a title in Auckland in January then didn't win a match for several games until making that final. Weird guy but hard to beat when his serve is on.

[Don_Omarion]

-200 with this big risk does not deserve the play .. maybe something better today than Monaco