[keel44]

Here is how this system will work:

I will be try to win 3 consecutive parlays that pay a minimum of 2.5 to 1. I will be pressing the winnings only from the 1st parlay as the 2nd parlay. Then I press the winnings and risk amount into the 3rd parlay. If I am successful at this, it will be a net profit of a minimum 30.63 to 1. Here is a visual:

Risk 1 to win 2.5
Risk 2.5 to win 6.25
Risk 8.75 to win 21.88

8.75 + 21.88 = 30.63 Units profit

1 UNIT = 2% of total bankroll

I will be chasing this scenario. I take the amount I want to profit and divide by 30.63. Any 1st parlay attempt loss will be added to my target amount and will be divided by 30.63.

This is a chase system and a press system all in one. I only chase the "A" bets and the "B" and "C" bets use previous winnings.

The idea is if I get hot enough as a capper, I will surge ahead in profits to cover all previous losses. The bets rise very quickly after wins, and the bets rise slowly after losses. I need to get hot enough before my bankroll runs out, but I will have many many opportunities to get that done.

I have had great success so far using this methodology in MLB and NFL and NBA. I have documented threads in these sports. I also use the spreadsheet.

Keel's Football Parlay System

Keel's Baseball Action starting on post #252

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ay-system.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ay-system.html

http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[keel44]

I will give a bit of a breakdown of this money management strategy:

MLB 2014 - 23-78 (22.77%) avg odds 325 +34.79 units
NFL 2014 - 12-28 (30%) avg odds 230 +10 units
NBA 2014/15 - 53-130 (28.96%) avg odds 255 +22.13 units
MLB 2015 - 36-140 (20.45%) avg odds 290 +15.20 units
NFL 2015 - pending

+82.12 units overall (Exactly 500 plays) ALL documented on this website
* A unit is 2% of a total bankroll

The average risk amount per play is 1.15 units overall in all seasons. Not bad for a "chase" system.

[keel44]

My profit target amount will be 10 units. Divide 10 by 30.63 = 0.32 unit will be my starting risk amount.

1 unit equals 2% of total bank. That means I have a 50 unit bankroll to get this done. Any bets must pay a minimum of 2.5 to 1.


October 27

Parlay 01-A: Pelicans +9.5 with Hawks -6.5 (0.32 to win 0.83)

[oilcountry99]

Keel,

Interesting Money Management strategy here. I reviewed your thread from last year and have a question regarding your plays. Why do you choose to have multiple parlays in 1 day? Wouldn't it be more efficient to run 1 parlay per day with your 2 best handicaps? Parlays are difficult enough to win, let alone 2 in a day.

It appears you wait on a stronger handicapped parlay to place on B & C bets correct?

Good luck this season.

[keel44]

I have multiple parlays so I could hurry things along. I don't judge my plays as stronger or weaker. If I think a play is worth making, I'll do it. I do want to feel confident in the plays. I often skip a day between B's and C's because I believe it to be pretty hard to win 3 days in a row, but I have done that before. I even won a B and C bet on the same night.

[fitguy67]

the only "investment-grade nail-biting" sports-betting regime I know of...

i hate this sport with a passion...but love money so i've signed up for another tour

[keel44]

October 27

Parlay 01-A: Pelicans +9.5 with Hawks -6.5 (0.32 to win 0.83)

O.K.
0.32 + 10 unit profit target = 10.32
10.32/30.63 = 0.33 unit will be our next wager amount.

[keel44]

Fitguy67, I am glad you have always been supportive. I have received a private message of a guy doing very well with the NHL side of things using my money management. It seems to be the best money management I have ever known.

My problem has been making the picks. I need to ride the waves of these teams. I need to do a better job of recognizing the teams that are trending so I can take advantage of nailing the little streak I need for better profits. It should not take as long as these runs have been---it just shouldn't.

[keel44]

October 28

Parlay 02-A: Magic +4 with Magic UNDER 204.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 03-A: Heat -6.5 with Pistons +2.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)

[oilcountry99]

Love this money management strategy, need to come up with something different to use it on as I know little to nothing about handicapping the NBA.

[keel44]

In an effort to catch the streaks I need to better accomplish the goal at hand, I will be betting on a few select teams only. I will bet for or against these teams and pairing them with the over/under. That way I only need to correctly handicap the way those games will go for 3 in a row. I feel it will narrow down my handicapping greatly and it will surely take advantage of a team's trends much more efficiently. Teams go through ups and downs throughout a season. I will be forced to read into that and not be tempted by other match-ups.

I will be betting in regards to these 4 teams only going forward along with their game's Over/Under:

Magic
Celtics
Kings
Blazers

Why those teams? I wanted 2 from the East and 2 from the West. I wanted and early game option and a late game option. I also sort of feel these teams could be streaky this year one way or another in reference to the spread --- kind of a sink or swim feel.

I feel, in regards to the totals aspect, these teams could fly in the face of common expectation. I feel these 4 teams should trend UNDER this year. If not, I will easily handicap the other way. It is all about finding an easy read for me.

[keel44]

October 28

Parlay 02-A: Magic +4 with Magic UNDER 204.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 03-A: Heat -6.5 with Pistons +2.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)

Sounds good to me....

[Looking4Winners]

October 28

Parlay 02-A: Magic +4 with Magic UNDER 204.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 03-A: Heat -6.5 with Pistons +2.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)

Sounds good to me....

Nice hit!!! Was tailing you...

[keel44]

October 29

Parlay 03-B: Mavs +10.5 with Mavs UNDER 211.5 (0.86 to win 2.24)


Starting tomorrow I will start betting with the teams mentioned above.

[keel44]

October 29

Parlay 03-B: Mavs +10.5 with Mavs UNDER 211.5 (0.86 to win 2.24)

I didn't know Williams and Mathews would sit. My bad .... if I could've helped it

[keel44]

October 30

Parlay 02-B: Celtics -1.5 with Celtics OVER 203 (0.86 to win 2.24)
Parlay 04-A: Magic +8.5 with Magic UNDER 207 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 05-A: Lakers +6.5 with Kings OVER 212 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 06-A: Suns -4.5 with Blazers UNDER 204.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)

[oilcountry99]

Good luck Keel

[bferony]

I read your whole NBA thread from last season and I’m very impressed with your system I’m going to say something here and I am hope you’re not offended by what I’m saying. if I was you in the way that you pick your games I think I would try and find somebody to pick the games for me and I would just put them in the system. There’s probably a bunch of really good NBA handicappers that could at least give you a couple of games a night and help you out some.
It’s just a suggestion and I’m only basing this on reading every thread that you posted last NBA season and you seem to be always picking at yourself for not doing one thing or another .maybe also not having the pressure of having to pick B&C parlays would make it a little bit easier for the people that r going to handicap for you I know when you get to that C parlay that you’re definitely got to be a little nervous and going back and forth on which games choose I know I would be. anyway I’m definitely going to give your system is shot but I’m going to look to see if I can find a couple of really good handicappers because I’m not very good at picking in the NBA either. If you’re interested I can let you know if I find one or two people that are pretty good at this nba thing.good luck to you and I’ll be keeping my eye out hoping you win

[bferony]

By the way bet mania gives you 2.8 to 1 on a 2 team parlay what this does is it makes your pay out about 41/1 instead of 31/1 you also start your unit out at .24 instead of.33 this will save you at least two to three units if you get on a 20 game or 25 game losing streak instead of being down seven or eight to one you’re only be down about 5 and a half to one so if you use betmania you would probably be up another 20 units if you have two runs into a season and that makes a pretty big difference

[keel44]

October 30

Parlay 02-B: Celtics -1.5 with Celtics OVER 203 (0.86 to win 2.24)
Parlay 04-A: Magic +8.5 with Magic UNDER 207 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 05-A: Lakers +6.5 with Kings OVER 212 (0.33 to win 0.86)
Parlay 06-A: Suns -4.5 with Blazers UNDER 204.5 (0.33 to win 0.86)

Not particularly thrilled with tonight's results, but I would have gone 5-3 straight up.

[keel44]

@bferony: What is really important here is that a run of wins occurs. Certainly, a good handicapper will do better than me. If that was the case, I would just flat bet this so-called good handicapper. There would be no need for my money management strategy.

The money management plan here is to catch a little fire at some point, not to have an overall win percentage high enough for flat betting. I would flat bet if I were certain of me or anyone else doing so. I find that to be a pipe dream.

Throughout my 15 months of doing this, I have had some regrets in my selections. I can say without a doubt that there are times I feel in the zone. Sometimes I can read teams very well and I become super confident. I really think any sports fan could do it. All it takes is about 3-5 good days and I can profit. Yes, I could copy off someone else. I just don't see the need for it.

I am open to any ideas for trying to get clusters of wins, such as following/fade teams or situations. Thanks for the support.

[bferony]

I definitely hear what you’re saying about runs and streaks but let me ask you a question don’t you think that a good handicapper will have more runs and maybe longer ones than just an average handicapper he will have a hot streak quicker and maybe even longer than an average handicapper because his pics aren’t random and he has more of a chance of winners than an average or a bad handicapper or even a random one.

And yes I understand what you’re saying about just flat betting him if he’s a good handicapper but I think your system gives you a chance to make a lot more money when a good handicapper goes on a run because you’re right it does usually come in clusters and you want to take advantage of that situation when he’s hot
like I said I just think a good handicapper is going to get hot quicker and have more clusters that are longer then just a bad handicapper or an average one.
I just got an idea
What do you think of this idea about getting pics. you would go to the covers forum and look up the team experts and when a bunch of them either pick for the team or against the team that they are an expert on that would be a pic.
if three or four guys that are 70 to 80% right when they pick for or against a team are all on the same side that would be the side I would think I would want to be on.
This sounds pretty good to me. I’m going to have to check this out because it’s a pain in the ass for me to try and make pics because I don’t do enough studying or handicapping

Here’s another thought I just had how about when a good defensive team (top 25%) is playing a bad offensive team(bottom 25%) you bet the team total under on the bad offensive team or if you have a good offensive team against the bad defensive team you bet the team total over on the good offensive team. I am talking about team totals. this info is readily available everyday and it would probably just take a minute or two to check who’s playing who and see if anything fit into these situations.

I don’t know how you pick your games but last night I put in 7a parlays and hit two of them and I was just picking teams and totals that I thought looked good.
now that I have a couple of be Bparlays it’s a little more important that I Pic a team for a good reason so it would give me the best chance to hit it. so now maybe it’s time to head to covers or to do the defensive offensive angle.
so these are a couple ideas I’ve just had about trying to get clusters of wins and we would be following the experts of the teams were betting on or we could bet against people who are terrible at picking the team. Or following good defensive teams 0r good offensive teams.aginst bad offensive or defensive teams.
thanks for you help

[keel44]

@bferony: How do you know a handicapper? He might have a good track record, but totally suck going forward. The same goes for the so-called team experts at covers. Don't get me wrong, it might have some merit, but you need to see the forest for the trees here. The thing is, I do know something about these sports and about handicapping. I will certainly use all the information I can to make a decision, but when it comes to other people making it for me, I just can't go for that.

I don't think I could parlay with a team total. Besides, don't you think the line would be tilted towards the obvious. You aren't getting value that way.

I believe the teams themselves can get you clusters of wins. I have seen teams go hot and cold and I have seen teams do better than expected and worse than expected throughout a season. I am trying to find a way to exploit this in a way that can make better use of my money management.

* You said you placed 7 A-bets at the same time. Be careful not to place too many at once because 6 A-bet losses will be probably cause you to fall short of your profit target when you get 1 C-bet win at that same level. Do you fully understand my strategy? I wanna be sure we are on the same page.

[keel44]

October 31

Parlay 06-B: Blazers -3 with Blazers OVER 203.5 (0.86 to win 2.24)

I am waiting for the line movement on the Kings game. I will go Kings and Under.

[bferony]

knicks playing up tempo this year should go over with wash
Utah one o the best defenive teams ind tot 97

[bferony]

I guess I really don't understand why doing 7a parlays is bad and after going back and checking on it I wound up hitting three of them so now I'm just going to sit there with 3b plays and try and be choosy

[bferony]

you know I've been messing around with this all day and I think I found a better way for you to do your parlay and also make more money tell me if my calculations are right when you win your first leg at 2.5 you then open a 4 game open parlay at five Dimes by doing this you can put in one team at a time and you're not always struggling for a second game if you don't have one also if you get to 5 you might want to think of hedging and taking a few units back
if you start with the first leg and use your 2.50 and start a 4 team open parlay at five Dimes will Payouts 307 which gives you 33 units if you hit it
.and if you happen to play your two team parlay at bet mania it'll pay out normally 2.8 and that will pay you at 3:43 and 2.8 is 37.1 units am I doing this right.
there's absolutely every reason to play a 4 t open parlay at five Dimes and actually no reason not to
it pays out anywhere from 5 to 7 units more and you have incredible flexibility with the four teams you put in there with the possibility of being able to hedge if your down a bunch in my opinion
please let me know if I missing something

[keel44]

I guess I really don't understand why doing 7a parlays is bad and after going back and checking on it I wound up hitting three of them so now I'm just going to sit there with 3b plays and try and be choosy

Suppose you lost 6 of them. (6*0.33) = -1.98 units in losses
Suppose you win the 1 (0.32*30.63) = +10.10 units won
Total result = +8.12 units .....

This leaves you short of your goal of +10 units. Assuming +250 on all parlays. Of course +260 is more likely. I am just saying you should be aware of this. Not a real big deal.

[bferony]

my opening bank roll is 2500 so 2% of that is $50 a unit if I go on a roll like you did in baseball I would be down 2500 and have to put up another 2500 to keep going so I'm going to do absolutely everything I can to take the best odds and if I get down 30 or 40 units and happened to hit a Bparlay I will probably hedge and take some back and keep me active longer
it would be really nice to hit one of these right out of the box to open the season and then you could really relax but it seems the last couple of seasons that you had in basketball and baseball you've got down to the very end and I'm sure that makes you very anxious at times and makes it hard to be patient. but you do a great job of it
like I said I'd like to see how you do if you can get lucky enough to hit one at the beginning of one of the seasons and play with house money from the get go.

[bferony]

am I right about the amount of money that I would win if I did a 4 team open parlay because that would more than make up for the units that I might come up a little short of

[bferony]

that's why I'm going to take my time with these 3B parlays I have and really try and have at least one of them hit I already opened up a4 teamer at 5D and I put the Georgia team total under 24 in and Florida at pic

[keel44]

you know I've been messing around with this all day and I think I found a better way for you to do your parlay and also make more money tell me if my calculations are right when you win your first leg at 2.5 you then open a 4 game open parlay at five Dimes by doing this you can put in one team at a time and you're not always struggling for a second game if you don't have one also if you get to 5 you might want to think of hedging and taking a few units back
if you start with the first leg and use your 2.50 and start a 4 team open parlay at five Dimes will Payouts 307 which gives you 33 units if you hit it
.and if you happen to play your two team parlay at bet mania it'll pay out normally 2.8 and that will pay you at 3:43 and 2.8 is 37.1 units am I doing this right.
there's absolutely every reason to play a 4 t open parlay at five Dimes and actually no reason not to
it pays out anywhere from 5 to 7 units more and you have incredible flexibility with the four teams you put in there with the possibility of being able to hedge if your down a bunch in my opinion
please let me know if I missing something

It sounds better, but I can't do 5 dimes anyway. I am not sold on being choosy as you put it. I don't believe in confidence on one bet versus another. I have been betting for 17 years and I can tell you that confidence comes and goes.

You gain/lose confidence based on your recent results. When my confidence is high, that means I have recently been winning which means my bets rise drastically. I am actually chasing that very event.

Instead of looking at how to better bet my strategy, I would prefer we look into how we can get clusters of wins, like following/fading a team or situation or something.

[bferony]

sorry about over running your thread I will keep my ideas to myself from now on but I would think you would want to get as many units as possible when you do finally hit a run I guess the way I'm going to do my parlays especially after I get the first one in is to take my time and try and pick the best games possible either by following a good handicapper or having a good lean on what I think about something
plus I'm going to mix and match football hockey and basketball and take the best plays I can..thanks for sharing your system and I wish you the best

[keel44]

my opening bank roll is 2500 so 2% of that is $50 a unit if I go on a roll like you did in baseball I would be down 2500 and have to put up another 2500 to keep going so I'm going to do absolutely everything I can to take the best odds and if I get down 30 or 40 units and happened to hit a Bparlay I will probably hedge and take some back and keep me active longer
it would be really nice to hit one of these right out of the box to open the season and then you could really relax but it seems the last couple of seasons that you had in basketball and baseball you've got down to the very end and I'm sure that makes you very anxious at times and makes it hard to be patient. but you do a great job of it
like I said I'd like to see how you do if you can get lucky enough to hit one at the beginning of one of the seasons and play with house money from the get go.

I felt horrible about losing that 50 unit bankroll, but I knew that I could get hot. I most certainly did. I had around +70 units in 1 week. It more than made up for that 50 unit loss. It shows the potential my system has.

The troubling aspect are these long droughts. It seems so unlikely for me to be that cold for that long. That is where my bet selection process comes into play. I need to tighten that up just a little bit. I am learning everyday about that and I could see things improving as time goes by.

[keel44]

sorry about over running your thread I will keep my ideas to myself from now on but I would think you would want to get as many units as possible when you do finally hit a run I guess the way I'm going to do my parlays especially after I get the first one in is to take my time and try and pick the best games possible either by following a good handicapper or having a good lean on what I think about something
plus I'm going to mix and match football hockey and basketball and take the best plays I can..thanks for sharing your system and I wish you the best

I want all the ideas you got. I just can't change services or methodology like that. I appreciate the support and information.