The daytona 500

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  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 51823

    #1
    The daytona 500
    Alright guys it's finally that time to start the first official NASCAR race of the year!!! As usual can't wait to get a new season started up. Glad to be back around here after a few year mandatory hiatus. Just like before I'll make a thread for each CUP race every week. I'll still be studying my own driver/track personal notebooks and watching past events as I always have done for my own handicapping. This year with ALL the rule changes not sure what to expect but can't be any crazier than last year was overall.

    This is for the actual Daytona 500 race. We already have a posted thread for the other speed week races like te Duels on Thursday night

    DAYTONA is a 2.5 mile Tri-oval with 31 degrees banking in the turns and 18 degrees @ the start finish line. Front stretch is 3,000 ft with the back a little less at 3,000 ft

    As always everybody's picks, race thoughts, and opinions are always welcomed and encouraged. This sub-forum was a cash cow for years so hopefully we can get it back there! Hope we all have a great season!!!



    GOODLUCK!!!!!
  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 51823

    #2
    I made some early plays last month a few more yesterday. I will def have a cover for any plate race so not sure yet what it will be but maybe a play I already have. Will adjust bets according to how odds move and # of win wagers if I add on to anything or leave it. Took a few longshots already but will add several more plays overall this was just the start.

    Truex +2200
    dillon +3300
    blaney +4500
    Hamlin +1150
    Comment
    • DiggityDaggityDo
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-30-08
      • 81454

      #3
      Nascar forum about to heat up again.
      Comment
      • 5mike5
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 09-21-11
        • 51823

        #4
        Added to Hamlin (+1350) blaney (+6000)
        Comment
        • 5mike5
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 09-21-11
          • 51823

          #5
          Front Row qualifying starting now
          Comment
          • 5mike5
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 09-21-11
            • 51823

            #6
            POLE--Chase Elliot
            2ND---Dale JR

            ***all other spots determined by the DUELS Thursday night
            Comment
            • Optional
              Administrator
              • 06-10-10
              • 60734

              #7
              Baby Bill Elliot on pole.
              .
              Comment
              • 5mike5
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 09-21-11
                • 51823

                #8
                Stat of the day:

                no Daytona 500 pole winner has finished in the top 5 in the last 15 years
                Comment
                • 5mike5
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 09-21-11
                  • 51823

                  #9
                  Gonna be tough to decide on what single odds Guy to take. JR?, BK?,and Logano will be under 10-1 soon enough. Parlay always possible. Always tell myself don't go too wild for the 500 since it's so unpredictable, just usually never works out that way
                  Comment
                  • shaunovery
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-15-07
                    • 18143

                    #10
                    Think junior will be bet down as low as 6-1 come raceday
                    Comment
                    • 5mike5
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 09-21-11
                      • 51823

                      #11
                      Originally posted by shaunovery
                      Think junior will be bet down as low as 6-1 come raceday


                      Id be stunned if he isn't
                      Comment
                      • 5mike5
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 09-21-11
                        • 51823

                        #12
                        Be interesting to see if odds shift any after being taken down yesterday. Of course whatever is going on with 5dimes NASCAR is odd to say the least. Only book to leave up 500 odds til AFTER the clash then took them down. Odds did shift in that time but not how I expected. Hamlin got BETTER somehow. If I was 100% sure on logano pick I should have jumped at 11-1 but didn't and probably will wish I had. Blaney had insane value imo at 60-1. Anyways be interesting to see if they overreact to even the front row starting positions. Lol
                        Comment
                        • Copizzle
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-08-09
                          • 137

                          #13
                          02/18 12:10 PM Future/Prop Pending $500.00 $3,750.00 NASCAR Futures - Daytona 500 Brad Keselowski +750 for To Win ~ Daytona 500
                          02/12 07:48 PM Future/Prop Pending $500.00 $6,000.00 NASCAR Futures - Daytona 500 Chase Elliott +1200 for To Win ~ Daytona 500
                          02/12 07:48 PM Future/Prop Pending $500.00 $9,000.00 NASCAR Futures - Daytona 500 Martin Truex Jr +1800 for To Win ~ Daytona 500
                          02/12 07:48 PM Future/Prop Pending $500.00 $9,000.00 NASCAR Futures - Daytona 500 Clint Bowyer +1800 for To Win ~ Daytona 500
                          You can see the date and time of these picks. Feel like the winner can come from one of these four. Got to eat the chalk with Brad K. He looks very strong and just has a great feel for the draft right now.
                          Comment
                          • 5mike5
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 09-21-11
                            • 51823

                            #14
                            Ur right any of those can surely win I agree. Just depends on luck of the draft. I'll probably be debating between BK and JR but not gonna play either as straight chalk. Just too low for a plate tack for me. Just gotta decide between them and which h2h I'll play with it. And that's if logano isn't around the same price.

                            BK is definitely a top plate track driver. If this was dega I would insta bet him
                            Comment
                            • 5mike5
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 09-21-11
                              • 51823

                              #15
                              The Greek just reposted odds.

                              JR new betting fav(shocker!) @ +650, Keslowski up to +800

                              pole winner stayed the same +1400
                              Comment
                              • 5mike5
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 09-21-11
                                • 51823

                                #16
                                Who had the best average finish at plate tracks last season?

                                Austin Dillon
                                Comment
                                • 5mike5
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 09-21-11
                                  • 51823

                                  #17
                                  New odds posted at 5dimes!

                                  trucks , xfinity, AND cup all posted!

                                  Comment
                                  • 5mike5
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-21-11
                                    • 51823

                                    #18
                                    Brad odds haven't been HAMMERED down +375. No value there. And logano too. Knew I should have jumped before they went down on Joey . Of course they will change again after duels
                                    Comment
                                    • 5mike5
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 09-21-11
                                      • 51823

                                      #19
                                      HAMLIN reopened last night @+1200

                                      has already been HAMMERED down to +700

                                      odds on all the top guys are GROSS right now. Yikes
                                      Comment
                                      • Optional
                                        Administrator
                                        • 06-10-10
                                        • 60734

                                        #20
                                        5Dimes horrible for faves.

                                        Jr fave at Crownbet +700
                                        BK +800
                                        Denny and Joey +1000
                                        Jimmie, KyleB, Harvick +1200
                                        Chase and Kenseth +1400

                                        Everyone else over +2000



                                        5Dimes

                                        NASCAR Cup Series Nascar Cup Series Daytona 500
                                        Thu 2/23 12:00PM

                                        Brad Keselowski +350
                                        Joey Logano +550
                                        Dale Earnhardt Jr +650
                                        Denny Hamlin +700
                                        Kyle Busch +900
                                        Kevin Harvick +1300
                                        Jimmie Johnson +1350
                                        Martin Truex Jr +1400
                                        Matt Kenseth +1500
                                        Chase Elliott +2000
                                        Kyle Larson +2200
                                        Kurt Busch +2650
                                        Clint Bowyer +2650
                                        Austin Dillon +2700
                                        Jamie McMurray +3300
                                        Daniel Suarez +3300
                                        Kasey Kahne +4400
                                        Erik Jones +4400
                                        Ryan Blaney +4500
                                        Trevor Bayne +6600
                                        Ricky Stenhouse Jr +6600
                                        Paul Menard +6600
                                        Ryan Newman +6600
                                        Casey Mears +10000
                                        Aric Almirola +12500
                                        A.J. Allmendinger +12500
                                        Ty Dillon +12500
                                        Danica Patrick +12500
                                        Chris Buescher +16500
                                        .
                                        Comment
                                        • 5mike5
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 09-21-11
                                          • 51823

                                          #21
                                          Biggest mover since get reopens yesterday is that Hamlin dead +1200. Nobody else has moved really. Favs are gross I agree
                                          Comment
                                          • 5mike5
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 09-21-11
                                            • 51823

                                            #22
                                            Not sure if they argue horribly mexpoaed with Brad, Denny, Joey or what. Never seen them wait SO long to post @ Greek does is 1 thing that's odd as well. Knew I should have jumped on Joey when they left odds posted during clash. Oh well they will change a lot still I would guess

                                            not sure I'll be adding to my roster til after duels.

                                            And nd I got Keslowski +450 for the DUEL race'. Better than 500 and only 1/2 the field. CRAZY
                                            Comment
                                            • 5mike5
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 09-21-11
                                              • 51823

                                              #23
                                              Elliot has great odds at 20-1 now

                                              *curse of the pole sitter scoring 0 top 5s last 15 years still scaring me off
                                              Comment
                                              • 5mike5
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 09-21-11
                                                • 51823

                                                #24
                                                Absolutely LOVE blaney>ty dillon(-130)
                                                Comment
                                                • 5mike5
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 09-21-11
                                                  • 51823

                                                  #25
                                                  Added LOGANO (+850)

                                                  updated:
                                                  logano(+850)
                                                  hamlin (+1350)
                                                  truex (+2200)
                                                  dillon (+3300)
                                                  blaney (+6000)

                                                  probably 1 more and a cover and I'll be done. That one may include a parlayed winner just have to wait and see. And will be h2h parlay and/ or singles
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 5mike5
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 09-21-11
                                                    • 51823

                                                    #26
                                                    No idea why logano jumped up from +550 this morning to +850 this afternoon but figured it was time to take him rather than wait. No idea who else I'm taking but kennseth is becoming attractive in some fashion
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 5mike5
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 09-21-11
                                                      • 51823

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by 5mike5
                                                      Absolutely LOVE blaney>ty dillon(-130)
                                                      ay like blaney>jones (+100) even more
                                                      Comment
                                                      • 5mike5
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 09-21-11
                                                        • 51823

                                                        #28
                                                        Added KENNETH (+1600)

                                                        **im done besides de using what my cover bet will be. Maybe somebody I already have or somebody new. Just have to look over %s and any addon bets I will make. So I guess possibly 1 more. It that will have a cover involved in some fashion u less I decide not to have 1 at all. Just depends
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Optional
                                                          Administrator
                                                          • 06-10-10
                                                          • 60734

                                                          #29
                                                          Practice cancelled due to rain.

                                                          Anyone know forecast for tonight?
                                                          .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 5mike5
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 09-21-11
                                                            • 51823

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Optional
                                                            Practice cancelled due to rain.

                                                            Anyone know forecast for tonight?
                                                            15% chance of rain between 6PM-10pm.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 5mike5
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 09-21-11
                                                              • 51823

                                                              #31
                                                              I don't feel very good about most of my 500 roster after watching duels blaney and Dillon impressed but nothing else

                                                              no no clue what I'm gonna do about a cover bet.shift current guy and add to roster or new guy. Sheesh
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 5mike5
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 09-21-11
                                                                • 51823

                                                                #32
                                                                JR, BK, HAMLIN just look heads above the comp. overall
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 5mike5
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 09-21-11
                                                                  • 51823

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Any of u guys playing the trucks or xfinity races next few days??
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 5mike5
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 09-21-11
                                                                    • 51823

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I'll be interested to see how the duels effect 500 odds when they post again

                                                                    but Practice starts at 1PM today FYI
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Optional
                                                                      Administrator
                                                                      • 06-10-10
                                                                      • 60734

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Chase and Denny and Bowyer and Kurt will all be shorter due to them I think
                                                                      .
                                                                      Comment
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