Betting against public opinion

[QuantumLeap]

I've been betting against public opinion lately, especially when there's a line move against the favorite (I use BetOnline for opening lines) and when the recent performance of the favorite has been good while the recent performance of the underdog has been bad. I don't believe in using consensus sites because I don't know how accurate they are.

Examples were BYU against Boise, USF against Navy, Buffalo against Akron and even Denver over Houston in NFL. Now it hasn't always worked. I got bit after taking Oregon against Cal who threw an INT in OT and last night taking Cal against USC. At least both of those were close.

I'm going to post examples here to see how they do since my posts have been all over the forum.

[QuantumLeap]

First example-

Looking at taking Virginia. I'll post before gametime if the line doesn't move too much.

Line movement:
25 1/2 to 33

Recent performance:
Louisville 54-13
Virginia 14-35, 31-45

Looking to take: VA +33

[QuantumLeap]

Here's another example-

Looking to take Mich St +24 1/2 over Michigan

Line movement:
18 1/2 to 24 1/2

Recent performance:
Michigan 41-8, 78-0
Mich St 17-28, 40-54

I forgot to mention a lot of times people look at the record so I'll take that into consideration as well. Fade teams with good records and consider teams with bad records.

Mich is 7-0
Mich St is 2-5

Looking to bet on Mich St +24 1/2. I'll post the bet close to game time depending upon line movement.

[QuantumLeap]

Looking to take Purdue +15 1/2 over Penn State.

Line movement:
10 1/2 to 15 1/2

Recent performance:
Penn State had a big win over Ohio State.
Purdue 14-27

Penn St 5-2
Purdue 3-4

[QuantumLeap]

Going with those 3 for the early games:
Virginia +34
Purdue +15 1/2
Mich St +25

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:
Texas +4 1/2

Line movement:
2 1/2 to 4 1/2

Recent:
Baylor 49-7
Texas 21-24

Baylor 6-0
Texas 3-4

[QuantumLeap]

Rice +30 1/2
Kansas +40

[QuantumLeap]

Nebraska +9 1/2

[gojetsgomoxies]

impotent favorites? excellent teams without high powered offenses and/or A-hole run it up offenses ...... i think i got this idea from goldsheets.com goldsheet? sp?

[gojetsgomoxies]

Going with those 3 for the early games:
Virginia +34
Purdue +15 1/2
Mich St +25

what happened with purdue? your bet was doing great and then you missed by massive margin........ college football scoring is sometimes WTF

[gojetsgomoxies]

i like the kansas. can see them covering nicely and can't see the missing by much...

nice calls so far BTW

[QuantumLeap]

impotent favorites? excellent teams without high powered offenses and/or A-hole run it up offenses ...... i think i got this idea from goldsheets.com goldsheet? sp?

Just high-powered teams off a big win usually. I think I may be putting too much emphasis on recent wins. I didn't take NW since Ohio State lost last week. Maybe I should have considered a let-down after a big loss.

[QuantumLeap]

what happened with purdue? your bet was doing great and then you missed by massive margin........ college football scoring is sometimes WTF

Yeah, they were doing all right in the first half. The only thing I can think of is that they gave up after getting behind by so much.

[QuantumLeap]

i like the kansas. can see them covering nicely and can't see the missing by much...

nice calls so far BTW

Thanks.

Yeah, that's just too much to cover at this time of the season. These good teams have to start thinking about conserving energy for the final run and then into the bowl games.

[QuantumLeap]

4-3 for the day. Don't know what happened to Rice and Kansas. They just didn't show up to play today.

Virginia +34 win
Purdue +15 1/2 loss
Mich St +25 win
Texas +4 1/2 win
Rice +30 1/2 loss
Kansas +40 loss
Nebraska +9 1/2 win

[gojetsgomoxies]

rice was unbelievably bad score in the 3rd quarter.

remind myself never to bet on kansas - nor eastern michigan - ever again........ wait for these teams to turn the corner.

the Va cover was nice......... could have easily been a ML win too.

[QuantumLeap]

rice was unbelievably bad score in the 3rd quarter.

remind myself never to bet on kansas - nor eastern michigan - ever again........ wait for these teams to turn the corner.

the Va cover was nice......... could have easily been a ML win too.

The Va ML was something like +4400. I was thinking about not betting on the games with 30+ points and then I thought of Va. Most people move on to the NFL and bet that but I'm going to take a serious look at why Va came out to play today as a 30+ dog while Rice and Kansas didn't.

[shopbar picks]

Just pass on really shitty teams ie Kansas. But focus on Clemson and Ohio state wisconsin. Navy thurs. When you see a majority of posts on this forum for one team. Go against. Money ahead. Bol

[JTrain]

Believe PSU opened at 14, moved down to around 10 then back up, so possibly not the type of clean move you were looking for.

[gojetsgomoxies]

The Va ML was something like +4400. I was thinking about not betting on the games with 30+ points and then I thought of Va. Most people move on to the NFL and bet that but I'm going to take a serious look at why Va came out to play today as a 30+ dog while Rice and Kansas didn't.

your approach and mine seem similar. i'm really big on trying to understand why things happened. i.e. i peruse teamrankings.com, all kinds of power ratings, phil steele returning starters, ncaa stats to figure out why teams play why they do.

viriginia has lots of very very good players (blading, brown, 5 star TB starts with M, kizer, etc.)...... not sure why they don't play better in general.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Just pass on really shitty teams ie Kansas. But focus on Clemson and Ohio state wisconsin. Navy thurs. When you see a majority of posts on this forum for one team. Go against. Money ahead. Bol

shopbar, thx. i appreciate the advice.................. do the uninformed - maybe me - prefer kansas or oklahoma at 40 point spread going in blind? i would have thought oklahoma but maybe i'm wrong. it's nice to get the points but i've always thought that alot of betters psychologically want to associate with winners. i'm thinking of NBA/NFL specifically

[QuantumLeap]

Just pass on really shitty teams ie Kansas. But focus on Clemson and Ohio state wisconsin. Navy thurs. When you see a majority of posts on this forum for one team. Go against. Money ahead. Bol

I thought so too but then there was Virginia who was a 2-5 team that was a 34-point underdog almost winning the game. For the most part I think I'll pass on the really bad teams.

Buffalo was another bad team and they not only beat Akron but they doubled them up.

[QuantumLeap]

Believe PSU opened at 14, moved down to around 10 then back up, so possibly not the type of clean move you were looking for.

You're right and that's one thing to look out for. One reason I'm playing big line moves is because I believe the public is betting on the favorites and the books know they can make a bigger line for the favorite and the public will still keep betting them. In a way it's my indicator of where the public is betting. When a line moves back and forth like you mention it may not always be so.

[QuantumLeap]

your approach and mine seem similar. i'm really big on trying to understand why things happened. i.e. i peruse teamrankings.com, all kinds of power ratings, phil steele returning starters, ncaa stats to figure out why teams play why they do.

viriginia has lots of very very good players (blading, brown, 5 star TB starts with M, kizer, etc.)...... not sure why they don't play better in general.

I'll have to check out that web site. I'm going to spend more time investigating the dogs to see why they do well in certain situations.

One thing about Buffalo is that they suck on run defense but they have a pretty decent pass defense. Akron is a better passing team than a rushing team so Buffalo matched up with them pretty well.

[Buffalo Nickle]

I'm not sure you are betting against the "public." Lines move because of money so the lower lines are basically considered to be where the value was and is no more. So betting against line moves is not likely to be profitable as it is basically a coinflip. But you are at least betting a line that probably does not have negative value as most bettors do which is why they lose more than they win. Could even be some small amount of value but not likely enough to be profitable.

Underdogs used to win more than they lost for some of the reasons you described but now that the computer guys control the betting market, there is very little value in any type of bet.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm not sure you are betting against the "public." Lines move because of money so the lower lines are basically considered to be where the value was and is no more. So betting against line moves is not likely to be profitable as it is basically a coinflip. But you are at least betting a line that probably does not have negative value as most bettors do which is why they lose more than they win. Could even be some small amount of value but not likely enough to be profitable.

Underdogs used to win more than they lost for some of the reasons you described but now that the computer guys control the betting market, there is very little value in any type of bet.

Thanks for the post and it allows me to explain something I left out. You are right, lines move with money. Therefore big lines all of a sudden typically means money coming in all at once. Now this doesn't necessarily mean it's sharp money or smart money. I have a saying "there are an awful lot of dumb people with money" and that includes sports betting. Square bettors can move the line a lot with big money.

That leads me to explain why I like betting these types of line moves and something I haven't explained well until now. I touched upon it in a reply to JTrain. The slow even line movement making the line less favorable for the big favorite tells me that the public is betting this line. Why you may ask? Because the linesmakers make the line worse and worse for the big favorite (the team the public is betting) and the public continues to bet the worse line.