UFC at White House Odds: Will Conor McGregor Fight on the Lawn in 2026?

Conor McGregor said it's a "done deal" that he'll fight on the UFC's planned fight card on the White House lawn in 2026.

With U.S. President Donald Trump and UFC president Dana White both having said the fight card will take place as part of the July 4 celebrations at the White House next year, we're looking at the odds for who'll be on the UFC White House card and who McGregor may fight.

Who'll fight on the UFC White House card?

Kalshi, a prediction trading market legal and regulated throughout most of the U.S., has a market open for "which fighters will be on the UFC 2026 White House event". The market states that the fighter must be officially listed to compete on the UFC 2026 White House card by July 4, 2026.

• Sean O'Malley - 45%
• Conor McGregor - 41%
• Jon Jones - 40%
• Israel Adesanya - 39%
• Alex Pereira - 29%

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Sean O'Malley is the favorite to be on the card with a 45% chance given by Kalshi traders, while McGregor is second at 41%. That percentage has actually dropped since McGregor announced his intentions to fight on the White House lawn to FOX News' Sean Hannity:

A separate market at Kalshi puts the chances of the UFC hosting an event at the White House by the U.S.' 250th anniversary (before July 5, 2026) at 95%.

Who will Conor McGregor fight next?

Though it hasn't been confirmed by anyone other than McGregor that he'll fight at the White House (or anywhere) there's a market for who is next opponent will be, so long as it's before Jan. 1, 2028:

• Michael Chandler - 52%
• Mike Perry - 11%
• Max Holloway - 6%
• Jeremy Stephens - 6%
• Nate Diaz - 4%
• Jorge Masvidal - 3%
• Justin Gaethje - 3%
• Tony Ferguson - 3%
• Georges St-Pierre - 3%
• Khabib Nurmagomedov - 3%
• Tyron Woodley - 3%
• Floyd Mayweather Jr. - 3%
• Eddie Alvarez - 3%

Prediction: Nate Diaz (4%)

Though Chandler is the heavy favorite in this market after the two have postponed or canceled several scheduled fights, I'd put my money on Nate Diaz.

McGregor and Diaz split their two fights in the Octagon to date. Though Diaz left the UFC in 2022 and has since boxed against Jake Paul and Jorge Masvidal, the potential pay day of this White House fight could lure him (or anyone) back into the cage with McGregor to complete their trilogy.