🩸 UFC Fight Night Odds: Strickland vs. Hernandez Betting Guide & Full Card Info

The UFC returns to Houston’s Toyota Center tonight for UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez, where a former champion faces off against a rising contender. In the co-main event, Geoff Neal looks to counter the striking power of Uros Medic.

While no belts are at stake, the outcomes could shake up the rankings. Early prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 8 p.m. ET, all available to stream on Paramount+.

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📊 UFC Fight Night odds - Main Card

Sean Strickland (29-7) vs. Anthony Hernandez (15-2)

Sean Strickland notes:

• The defensive specialist: Strickland is a former UFC middleweight champion, and is 3-2 in his last five fights, including a 1-2 mark in title fights
• Key stat: Strickland lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute and posts an impressive 60% striking defense

Anthony Hernandez notes:

• Unstoppable Engine: Hernandez is a former LFA middleweight champ and enters on an eight-fight win streak
• Key stat: Averages a staggering 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes

🩸 Betting outlook

This is a major clash of styles, and if Strickland can keep his back off the fence and keep his jab working he'll be a live dog, but Hernandez's pace makes him a deserved favorite. We outlined that in our UFC Fight Night best bets. 

Geoff Neal (16-7) vs. Uros Medic (12-3)

Geoff Neal notes:

• The gatekeeper: Ranked #12 in the division but is just 1-3 in his last four fights
• Key stat: Absorbs 5.48 strikes per minute

Uros Medic notes:

• The quick-finish: Has recorded back-to-back 63 second first-round KO victories
• Key stat: Has never seen the judges' scorecards in his professional career

🩸 Betting outlook

Medic is the hotter fighter, but Neal is a massive step up and has a huge experience edge. It should be enough to earn him the victory.

Dan Ige (19-10) vs. Melquizael Costa (25-7)

Dan Ige notes: 

• 50K: Ige will seemingly fight anyone, any time, but has won just one of his last four scraps
• Key stat: With an iron chin (and maybe rubber joints), Ige has never been stopped via KO/TKO/Submission in his career

Melquizael Costa notes:

• Rising contender: Enters on a five-bout win streak with wins by submission, KO/TKO, and decision
• Key stat: Has better averages than Ige in Strikes Landed, Striking Accuracy, Strikes Absorbed, Takedowns Averaged, Takedown Accuracy, Takedown Defense and Submission Average

🩸 Betting outlook

Despite Costa having many statistical edges, Ige's durability is the x-factor here. I'm siding with the ascending favorite, Costa, but Ige is certainly a live dog.

Serghei Spivac (17-6) vs. Ante Delija (26-7)

Serghei Spivac notes:

• The Polar Bear's Grip: Spivac is ranked #7 in the heavyweight division and is known for his sambo-style wrestling
• Key stat: Spivac will turn to his wrestling, where he averaged 4.21 takedowns/15 minutes

Ante Delija notes:

• PFL Powerhouse: No. 9 Delija is a former PFL champion, but is just 1-1 in two UFC fights, both finishing via first round KO/TKO (win vs. Marcin Tybura, loss vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta)
• Key stat: Despite his last four fights ending in under four minutes (2-2), he is 7-1 in eight career fights that have gone the distance

🩸 Betting outlook

Under 2.5 rounds is a strong look here: If Spivac gets the clinch early, it’s a long night for Delija. However, Delija’s power is superior.

Jacobe Smith (11-0) vs. Josiah Harrell (11-0)

Jacobe Smith notes:

• Blue-chip prospect: Smith has a perfect record, including two wins at the UFC level over Preston Parsons (KO/KO, Jan. 2025) and Niko Price (submission, June 2025)
• Key stat: Smith has nine finishes in 11 career fights and is on a run of five bouts that have ended before the third round

Josiah Harrell notes:

• (Almost) Only finishes: Harrell, also 11-0, has 10 finishes and just one decision in his career
• Key stat: "Muscle Hamster" is making his UFC debut, last appearing in LFA just over a month ago

🩸 Betting outlook

Someone is picking up their first loss, and that someone will be Harrell. Smith is a massive step up for Harrell, who has eight of his career fights coming in the Ohio Combat League. Smith's wrestling will win out.

Zachary Reese (10-2) vs. Michel Pereira (31-14)

Zachary Reese notes:

• Hometown Hero? Fighting on home soil as he looks to improve on a second-round submission win over Jackson McVey in November
• Key stat: Ten of his 12 fights have ended in finish, with both of his losses coming via KO/TKO

Michel Pereira notes:

• Battle-tested: Despite being only 32 years old, Pereira has nine more pro fights than any other fighter on the card
• Key stat: Enters on a three-bout skid, with losses to Anthony Hernandez (fifth-round KO/TKO), Abus Magomedov (unanimous decision), and Kyle Daukaus (first-round KO/TKO)

🩸 Betting outlook

Despite Pereira's experience, he has struggled recently, while Reese is on a hot streak with home-field advantage. Reese’s grappling should be the difference here. 

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📊 UFC Fight Night odds - Prelims

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Chidi Njokuani (25-11) vs. Carlos Leal (22-7)

🩸 Betting outlook

Njokuani is a dangerous Muay Thai striker and his length will be a factor; if Leal can't close him down he'll be picked apart from a distance.

Ode Osbourne (13-9) vs. Alibi Idiris (11-1)

🩸 Betting outlook

Idiris is a real-deal prospect who suffered his first career loss in his UFC debut and is likely getting Osbourne as a get-right fight in the promotion.

Alden Coria (11-3) vs. Luis Gurule (10-2)

🩸 Betting outlook

Coria will use his defense, wrestling, and heavy fists (three KO/TKO wins in his last four bouts, the other was a NC) to beat Gurule, who lost his first two UFC bouts

Nora Cornolle (9-3) vs. Joselyne Edwards (16-6)

🩸 Betting outlook

Edwards is a rightful heavy favorite to win this one, entering with momentum (wins via KO/TKO, KO/TKO, and submission in her last three) and seeking revenge. Her high volume and clinch work should be enough to get the job done even if it goes the judges. 

Ramiz Brahimaj (13-5) vs. Punahele Soriano (12-4)

🩸 Betting outlook

The Under 1.5 rounds is probably the look here, with Brahimaj (all 13 wins via stoppage) and Soriano (9 stoppage wins in 12 victories) both thriving on early finishes. 

Phil Rowe (11-6) vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (9-2)

🩸 Betting outlook

Rowe will use his 80.5-inch reach (an advantage of over eight inches) will help him pick apart Lebosnoyani and limit his chances to working toward a submission in his UFC debut.

Jordan Leavitt (12-3) vs. Yadier del Valle (10-0)

🩸 Betting outlook

Leavitt has two submission losses in his last four bouts and del Valle has recorded back-to-back first round submission wins in his first two UFC fights. "The Cuban Problem" will show he's the real deal and improve to 11-0.

Juliana Miller (5-3) vs. Carli Judice (5-2)

🩸 Betting outlook

Miller is a veteran of Invicta and TUF, but the start of her UFC debut has been rocky and she'll fall to the pressure of Judice (10.73 significant strikes per minute)

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🎟️ UFC Fight Night betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM ahead of Saturday's tilts.

Most-bet fighters

Most-bet props

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🤑 Strickland vs. Hernandez betting splits

Betting insights via BetMGM.

It's interesting that Hernandez is receiving so few bets but accounts for the majority of the handle in this matchup. While fewer, larger bets on Hernandez don’t necessarily mean he is the sharp side at the current odds, they do indicate that the market initially wasn’t keen on Strickland at +200.

- Corey Scott

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📺 Where to watch UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

• Date: Saturday, Feb. 21
• Start times: Prelims: 5 p.m. ET, Main Card: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Toyota Center (Houston)
• Streaming: Paramount+

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