UFC 318 Predictions | Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds
A majority of this weekend's UFC picks focus on tonight's main event, but my Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov prediction highlights another highly anticipated fight on the UFC 318 main card.
Our best sports betting sites list Kopylov as a -205 betting favorite in this middleweight bout. The main card kicks off around 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ PPV) from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.
My UFC best bets analyze the latest odds to predict a winner, in addition to my favorite miscellaneous prop play.
📊 Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov UFC odds
UFC 318 odds via BetMGM as of Saturday, July 19.
| Paulo Costa | Method of victory | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| +190 | Win outright | -235 |
| +500 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +275 |
| +1500 | Win by submission | +3000 |
| +400 | Win by decision | +100 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
My UFC 318 predictions avoid picking a winner in this bout due to Costa's inconsistency. Instead, I recommend betting on the fight to go the distance, and as such, our recommendation here is Costa to win by decision (+400).
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🧐 Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov betting insights
Our UFC 318 betting insights are courtesy of BetMGM as of Saturday, July 19.
| Betting Insight | Paulo Costa | Roman Kopylov |
| Opening odds | +200 | -250 |
| Current odds | +190 | -235 |
| Percentage of bets | 70% | 30% |
| Percentage of handle | 55% | 45% |
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov is the third-most-bet bout at our best sports betting apps. It trails only Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier - which accounts for 48% of the UFC 318 action at BetMGM - and Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez.
🥊 UFC 318 predictions: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov preview
✅ Prediction: Paulo Costa to beat Roman Kopylov
📊 Best odds: +190 via ESPN BET ($10 to win $19)
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Full transparency, I went back and forth until the deadline when trying to decide who to pick in this fight. However, I've finally settled on Costa to win as an underdog.
The Brazilian's record looks awful on paper, but he's dueled some of the division's best, including former title-holders Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, and Robert Whittaker.
He's promised to return to his aggressive roots, fighting off the front foot tonight. This should make Kopylov uncomfortable, especially if "The Eraser" is landing his vicious kicks to the body at a high rate. Costa is also much more durable than the Russian, who could get tired trying to defend an aggressive opponent throughout the early rounds.
In the end, the stat that sold me on the underdog was his 5-1 record in the UFC against southpaws. This is enough for me to take a flier on Costa, with a $10 winning ticket paying out $19 at our best sports betting apps if the underdog prevails tonight.
💰 UFC 318 predictions: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov best bet
✅ Best bet: Fight to go the distance
📊 Best odds: -141 via Caesars ($10 to win $7.09)
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This is my favorite Costa vs. Kopylov prediction, plain and simple. Costa is too unreliable, and Kopylov is too inexperienced at a high level, so we'll stay away from betting on either fighter. Instead, we like the fight to go the distance, even at a heavily juiced price with Caesars.
Costa hasn't finished a fight before going to the judges in seven years, with his last knockout win coming over Uriah Hall at UFC 226. For context, the main event on that card featured Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier, both of whom have now retired.
While Kopylov possesses plenty of knockout power, stopping Costa has proven difficult in recent years. What the Brazilian lacks in finishing ability, he makes up for in stamina, with points deciding his previous four fights, and five of his last six. Expect this one to go the distance and require a decision for a winner to be named.
🆚 Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov tale of the tape
| Paulo Costa | Roman Kopylov | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 34 |
| 6'1" | Height | 6'0" |
| 202 lbs. | Weight | 196.2 lbs. |
| 72" | Reach | 75" |
| 14-4 | Record | 14-3 |
📡 How to watch Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov: UFC 318
📅 Saturday, July 19
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Smoothie King Center (New Orleans)
📺 ESPN+ PPV | 🛜 ESPN+ PPV
❓ Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov FAQs
Who is favored to win UFC tonight?
Roman Kopylov is the betting favorite with -235 odds to win at BetMGM. Those odds imply a 70.15% probability he wins the fight outright over Paulo Costa at UFC 318.
How do UFC odds work?
Roman Kopylov is the betting favorite with -235 odds to Paulo Costa's +190 moneyline price. Minus-money odds indicate the betting favorite, with a $10 winning wager returning $4.26 in profits, as opposed to a $19 profit on a $10 winning bet backing the plus-money underdog.
Who will win between Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov?
I predict Paulo Costa (+190 at BetMGM) will beat Roman Kopylov outright at UFC 318.
💵 Best UFC betting sites
Ready to bet on UFC 318? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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