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Nunes vs. Aldana Predictions, Picks & Odds: Lioness Continues Reign at UFC 289

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: June 10, 2023 4:09 PM EDT • 2 min 44 sec read.

The women’s bantamweight title hangs in the balance on Saturday night when champion Amanda Nunes exchanges violent pleasantries with Irene Aldana in the main event of UFC 289. Read on for our Nunes vs. Aldana prediction based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Amanda Nunes is a terrifying human being.

Having looked complacent and somewhat disinterested when she dropped her title to Julianna Pena back at UFC 269, "The Lioness” roared back to the throne with a convincing five-round win over Pena seven months later at UFC 277. After that earlier blip of mediocrity, Nunes looked like the absolute killer that ran roughshod over the 135-pound (and 145-pound) division and has returned to being one of the most consistent UFC best bets whenever she's on the card.

Irene Aldana punched her ticket to a title fight following consecutive finishes of Yana Santos and Macy Chiasson. The Chiasson TKO was delicious for fans of rare, unicorn finishes as Aldana roasted the Louisianan with a vicious upkick to the body. Aldana sports a 7-2 record over her last nine fights, with each of her last three triumphs coming via KO/TKO.

With that in mind, here is our best Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana prediction for UFC 289 (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana prediction

Nunes to win (-320 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Aside from her loss to Pena, Nunes has looked unstoppable since 2015. The bantamweight overlord has essentially cleaned out the entire division, and I don’t think Aldana stands a chance against a motivated Nunes. 

Although Aldana is a higher volume striker, Nunes is the more accurate striker (51% to Aldana’s 39%), and absorbs strikes at a much lower rate (2.75 significant strikes absorbed per minute to Aldana’s 5.71). Quite simply, Aldana is much more hittable, and Nunes has the requisite power and venomous finishing ability to make things ugly if she clips her with something nasty. Even if Aldana finds success on the feet, Nunes is a good enough wrestler to drag the bout to the floor, and is a nightmare for opponents if she finds herself in top position.

I don’t expect this bout to be a cakewalk. Aldana is a scrappy fighter and has shown flashes of power recently, but Nunes is quite possibly the greatest female fighter of all time. If a -320 favorite doesn’t blow your hair back, you can always tack it onto a parlay or back Nunes to win via KO/TKO (+145 via FanDuel) with your UFC picks.

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Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana best odds

DraftKings: Nunes to win (-320)

DraftKingsFanDueltheScoreBetPointsbetbet365
-320-340-330-325-334

Nunes opened as a massive -600 favorite, with that line eventually moving to a more reasonable -320 to -340 depending on your best sportsbooks. Based on the matchup, Nunes deserves to be a sizable favorite, and if you're backing her to win, your best odds are available at DraftKings.

Those craving that sweet, sweet risk that comes with backing the underdog can gobble Aldana up as high as +265 (DraftKings).

As I mentioned earlier, if you like Nunes but balk at a -320 favorite, you can back a KO/TKO at +145.

Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana fight info

Date: Saturday, June 10, 10 p.m. ET (Main Card)
TV: ESPN +, PPV
Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC

Nunes-Aldana prediction made 06/09/2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.