Costa vs. Vettori MMA Odds and Betting Picks

Two of the UFC's most dominant middleweights, Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori, will face off in the weekend's main event. Who will walk out as the victor?

It's been over 12 months since we previously witnessed the brute force of Paulo Costa (13-1-0) in the UFC octagon. As weight-cutting issues are already present, can "Borrachinha" resume his domineering ways following the first professional MMA loss of his career?

Marvin Vettori (17-5-1) walks into UFC in Vegas 41 as the sizeable favorite. Still, like his opponent, the fists of Israel Adesanya have them both entering this weekend's contest coming off a loss. Does "The Italian Dream" have the mental fortitude to get back on track?

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's now-light heavyweight UFC in Vegas 41 main event MMA matchup between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori. (Odds via DraftKings, BetWay)

Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, October 23, at 4 p.m ET (main card) 1 p.m ET (prelims)TV: Main card – ESPN+ /Preliminary card – UFC Fight PassLocation: UFC Apex Center, Las Vegas, NV

Costa vs. Vettori Odds Analysis

Since the odds opened for the weekend's main event, there has been a considerable move in favor of Vettori. The opening odds on Vettori have deviated from a +130-underdog position to a -180 favorite.When backing the favorite, make the most of DraftKings sportsbook odds, as alternative bookmakers show odds as high as -188 on Vettori.

Marvin Vettori Betting Profile

Vettori, the most notable Italian mixed martial artist in UFC history, has years of professional bouts ahead of him. We've had the pleasure of witnessing the 28-year-old's evolution at the highest level of the sport.

Originating from a complete mixed martial arts background, Vettori's skillset doesn't favor one discipline. Although, it's noticeable that his preferred method of combat is grappling, where he enjoys a grinding pressure to deplete his opponent's will.

Outside of his wrestling/grappling offense, Vettori will have no qualms in pressuring the opposition on the feet. His head movement and defensive striking attributes looked particularly impressive versus the current middleweight champion Adesanya.

Despite losing the title opportunity, Vettori displayed defensive striking intelligence that nullified the dangerous finishing ability the champion often possesses.

Vettori is a nightmare matchup for martial artists who struggle to defend takedowns and lack a high cardiovascular level.

Paulo Costa Betting Profile

The Brazilian brute Costa is currently dealing with weight-cutting issues, forcing the contest into a light heavyweight bout of 205 pounds. The middleweight limit of 185 pounds was not achievable for Costa, who openly admitted weight-cutting defeat during a press conference.

With that said, those problems can't remove the impressive stint that "Borrachinha" has rode since his arrival to the UFC. Recognizing Costa's past success as a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has been overshadowed by a professional MMA career consisting of multiple knockout/technical-knockout victories. Eleven of his 13 pro wins have ended via punches.

Straight jabs are usually a mask for Costa to load up with a barrage of fight-ending strikes. Pressure is his game, and with evidence from his in-cage displays, round-one or round-two stoppages are his forte.

Costa vs. Vettori Betting Picks

Marvin Vettori to win (-180 via DraftKings)Over 2.5 rounds (-139 via BetWay)

Costa vs. Vettori Betting Predictions

Marvin Vettori to win (-180)

The questions surround Costa's weight-cutting mishap. Without the discipline to make 205 pounds, I struggle to put faith in his mentality heading into this matchup.

Vettori is as professional as one can be, with a training regiment he's widely recognized for. I believe the betting line moving in Vettori's favor is acceptable and a position I feel relatively more comfortable wagering on.

Outside of the first two rounds, the relentless grind that Vettori prevails with is going to drag Costa into deep waters where he'll struggle to stay afloat.

Over 2.5 rounds (-139)

Time and time again, we're used to watching Vettori outperform his opponents with a point-fighting approach. His instincts to finish a fight aren't prominent, and since joining the UFC in 2016, he's gone the distance on nine occasions.

I wouldn't completely rule out a finish, Costa's power will present dangers early on and, of course, a five-round fight could play witness to a late stoppage favoring Vettori. However, as we prefer Vettori to take the win, expecting the fight to exceed the 12-minute mark makes a lot of sense.

Aside from his knockout loss at the hands of Adesanya, nobody has been able to stop Costa during his professional career, and Vettori has never been knocked out or submitted during his 23-fight professional career.

The Over 2.5 rounds at -139 is nothing but value, especially for bettors expecting Vettori to walk out victorious.

Picks made on 10/21/2021 at 1:08 p.m. ET.