Premier League Predictions & Odds: EPL Best Bets for Matchweek 6
My soccer picks over the last two weeks cashed in five out of six bets, as I offer my Premier League predictions for three featured matches, highlighting every game's live odds.
The picks below for Matchweek 6 analyze Man City's chances of shutting out Burnley at home, along with Under bets in a pair of matches with struggling offenses.
💰 Premier League predictions & expert picks: Matchweek 6
Here are my Premier League predictions for Matchweek 6. Odds are live and updated in real time.
- Man City vs. Burnley: Man City & Burnley not to score (-118 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Leeds United vs. Bournemouth: Under 2.5 goals (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Aston Villa vs. Fulham: Under 2.5 goals (-135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Man City ML & Burnley not to score ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Unbeaten in the last four matches in all competitions, Pep Guardiola's side is starting to hit form. The unbeaten run coincided with Gianluigi Donnarumma's debut performance, a 3-0 rout of cross-city rivals Manchester United.
City's new big-money keeper oozes confidence and already commands his rearguard. Bringing him to Manchester was one of the most shrewd transfers of the window, and it will palpably elevate the team's defensive nous.
In the current run, which includes three victories, they've scored eight and conceded one. That concession occurred in the dying embers of the 1-1 away draw at Arsenal, an outcome I predicted in last week's best bets.
On Saturday, City will face a newly promoted Burnley side that failed to score at Liverpool in its last away match.
While I'm not a massive believer in historic trends, Burnley has scored one goal in eight of its previous nine against the Cityzens in all competitions. Of the best sports betting sites, BetMGM offers the best value.
A winning $10 bet will profit $8.47 at the -118 odds.
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Leeds United vs. Bournemouth: Under 2.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐
Of Bournemouth's five Premier League matches, three had two or fewer goals. In all competitions, Bournemouth and Leeds United have seen four of their six matches hit the Under on this total.
Both of Leeds' Premier League matches at Elland Road had two goals or fewer, with the last match against Newcastle ending goalless. I'll reiterate what I said when I backed the Under in Leeds' away match at Fulham. For Leeds to stay in the Premier League, it must be organized and watertight at the back.
So far, so good for Daniel Farke's side.
The odds range from -120 (BetMGM, Caesars) at the low end of the market, while bet365 provides the best value at -111. Those odds will yield a $9.01 profit on a winning $10 bet.
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Aston Villa vs. Fulham: Under 2.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's clear by now that Aston Villa's offense packs one of the more feeble punches in the top flight. Unai Emery's side has one goal in five Premier League matches, and that lone strike came against newly promoted side Sunderland.
Captain John McGinn saved his team from another goalless outing against Bologna in the Europa League on Thursday, with the Villains eking a 1-0 home victory.
I expect Villa to pick up its first win (+130 at DraftKings), but I'm more confident in backing a 1-0, potentially 2-0, final score. Of Fulham's seven matches in all competitions, six had two or fewer goals, including both away matches.
Caesars offers the most palatable odds (-135), with FanDuel at the low end of the market providing -148 odds. I wouldn't play this pick beyond -140.
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🔢 Premier League odds: Matchweek 6
Live Premier League odds for every Matchweek 6 game; updated in real time.
📊 Brentford vs. Manchester United odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Gtech Community Stadium (London)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
📊 Leeds United vs. Bournemouth odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Elland Road (Leeds)
- How to watch: Peacock
📊 Chelsea vs. Brighton odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Stamford Bridge (London)
- How to watch: Peacock
📊 Man City vs. Burnley odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)
- How to watch: Peacock
📊 Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Selhurst Park (London)
- How to watch: Peacock
📊 Nottingham Forest vs. Sunderland odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Selhurst Park (London)
- How to watch: USA Network
📊 Tottenham vs. Wolves odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
- How to watch: USA Network
📊 Aston Villa vs. Fulham odds
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)
- How to watch: USA Network
📊 Newcastle vs. Arsenal odds
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Location: St James' Park (Newcastle)
- How to watch: USA Network
📊 Everton vs. West Ham odds
- Date: Monday, Sept. 29
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Goodison Park (Liverpool)
- How to watch: Peacock
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