Manchester City vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: Premier League Matchweek 4 Best Bets
There’s nothing like a Manchester derby to get back into the swing of things after the international break. My Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction looks at the Red Devils’ chances of pulling off another upset over their noisy neighbors in the 197th edition of the Manchester derby.
Manchester City are a betting favorite of -130, with United manager Ruben Amorim under the spotlight after a less than convincing start to the season. While the likely loss is sure to intensify the pressure on the manager, my soccer picks suggest the total might be the best play, and my Premier League best bets also include a Manchester United player who could help alleviate the heat off Amorim.
Kickoff for the historically feisty affair is scheduled for Sunday at 11:30 a.m. (Peacock) from the Etihad Stadium.
⚽ Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction
Premier League expert picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Tie (+300 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Manchester United +0.5 (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals (-185 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Manchester City vs. Manchester United preview & best bet
⬆️ Over 2.5 goals (-185) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
On paper, one would assume that three points on Sunday are Manchester City’s to lose. But a lackluster start to the season and a handful of significant injuries have opened the door for Manchester United to leave the Etihad Stadium with at least a point in what could be a game that goes Over 2.5 goals.
Manchester City returns from the international break with questions over the fitness of several key players, including Phil Foden and John Stones. Things got worse earlier this week with news that forward Omar Marmoush was ruled out on Sunday with an injury.
Meanwhile, Manchester United also have injury concerns, with summer signing Matheus Cunha dealing with a hamstring issue.
Despite the attacking concerns on both ends, this should be a high-scoring contest. Defense has been an issue for both teams. But there could be a transition period of sorts for Manchester City if Italian goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma makes his debut. At the other end of the pitch, Manchester United are sticking with Altay Bayindir despite the Turkish goalkeeper’s struggles this season.
The best odds come from DraftKings, who have set the mark at -185. A $10 bet there pays $15.40.
💰 Best Manchester City vs. Manchester United player prop bet
🔥 Bruno Fernandes to score or assist ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bruno Fernandes seems to pop up whenever Manchester United need him most in local derbies. Expect the same to be true Sunday, as I back the Portuguese midfielder to score or register an assist against Manchester City.
He’s been vital in Manchester United’s last three derby wins, scoring in each victory from 2021 to 2024. And Fernandes, who had 19 goals and 19 assists in all competitions last season, continues to be one of Amorim’s most reliable players this term. He scored the winning goal against Burnley in Manchester United’s only win so far in the 2025-26 campaign.
DraftKings has the odds set at +160, with a $10 bet yielding a $26 return.
📊 Manchester City vs. Manchester United odds: Matchweek 4
Premier League odds update live in real time.
📈 Manchester City vs. Manchester United betting odds analysis
Manchester City's moneyline odds range from -130 to -134, with DraftKings offering the best value. This figure may decrease depending on the injury news before the game.
🔢 Manchester City vs. Manchester United results
Team vs. Team history courtesy of 11v11.com.
| Date | Competition | Result | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 6, 2025 | Premier League | Man United 0-0 Man City | Old Trafford (Manchester, England) |
| Dec. 15, 2024 | Premier League | Man City 1-2 Man United | Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England) |
| Aug. 10, 2024 | Community Shield | Man City 1-1 Man United | Wembley Stadium (London) |
| May 25, 2024 | FA Cup | Man City 1-2 Man United | Wembley Stadium (London) |
| March 3, 2024 | Premier League | Man City 3-1 Man United | Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England) |
📺 Manchester City vs. Manchester United game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 14
- Kickoff: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- How to watch: Peacock
❓ Manchester City vs. Manchester United FAQs
Who is favored to win Manchester City vs. Manchester United?
Manchester City are the -130 betting favorite against Manchester United at home Sunday.
What is the spread for Manchester City vs. Manchester United?
Manchester City are at -0.5 (-135), and Manchester United are +0.5 (-105).
What is the Over/Under for Manchester City vs. Manchester United?
The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the Over juiced to between -185 and -188. FanDuel (+145) offers the best odds for the Under.
What are the best bets for Manchester City vs. Manchester United?
Over 2.5 goals and Bruno Fernandes to score or assist are my best bets.
When is the Manchester City vs. Manchester United game?
Manchester City vs. Manchester United kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 14.
How do soccer odds work?
When betting on soccer, the spread shows how many goals the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by 2 or more goals to cover the spread, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by fewer than 1 goal to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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