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Argentina's Lionel Messi reacts during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match against Poland.
Argentina's Lionel Messi reacts during the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group C football match against Poland. Photo by Odd Andersen via AFP.

Despite a shocking loss to open the tournament, Argentina punched their ticket to the Round of 16 by earning six points in the group stage. Australia is making their first knockout stage appearance since 2006. Check out our top Argentina-Australia World Cup picks and predictions.

Though most expected Argentina to top Group C, very few expected them to do it how they did. After losing their first game 2-1 to Saudi Arabia, they corrected course and managed to earn two 2-0 victories over Mexico and Poland.

For Australia, this is already the most successful World Cup in the country's history. Prior to this year, they had never won two games at the tournament. Their victories over Tunisia and Denmark helped them earn their way to the Round of 16 as the Group D runner-ups.

Here are our picks for Saturday's World Cup match between Argentina and Australia (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Argentina vs. Australia Game Info

Date: Saturday, Dec. 3, 2 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Ahmad bin Ali Stadium, Al Rayyan, Qatar
Weather: 68 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds

Argentina vs. Australia Picks

  • Spread: Argentina -2.5 (+170 via DraftKings)
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-134 via FanDuel)
  • Prop bet: Lionel Messi to score first goal (+240 via FanDuel)

Argentina vs. Australia ATS Pick

Argentina -2.5 (+170) ★★★

Everyone in the world is expecting Argentina to win this game. Therefore, their Moneyline offers absolutely no value. The best available price for them to win is -500 on DraftKings, while the line is -550 at the other major sportsbooks.

So, the question becomes, how much will Argentina win by? They looked very content to win 2-0 over Poland. After they went up by that margin, they essentially just passed the ball around. They had a few chances, but there was no reason for them to push the issue.

They won’t have much of a reason to push the issue in this one, either, but with it being a knockout stage game, Australia will be fighting much harder than Poland to retain possession and try to advance. That will open things up for Argentina, and they will score the most goals they've managed thus far in a game at this World Cup.

Argentina vs. Australia O/U Pick

Over 2.5 (-134) ★★★★

Both of these teams scored in all three of their group stage matches. However, both defenses haven’t conceded a goal since their World Cup openers. That may be worrisome to a few, but expect to see a looser game than we saw at the end of the group stage.

Argentina looks like they figured things out since their shocking result against Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Australia did well against two teams that struggled to score in Denmark and Tunisia, but they had a really hard time against the offensive-minded French.

Expect Argentina to do most, if not all, of the scoring in this one. As such, it’s hard to bet Over 3.5 goals, as that would require either a goal from Australia or a 4-0 win for the favorites. Instead, pay a bit more and take Over 2.5.

Argentina vs. Australia Prop Pick

Messi to score first (+240) ★★

In his final World Cup, Messi has already scored two goals. Each has also been the first goal scored in their respective games.

With Argentina set to do a majority of the scoring in this one, they will be on the attack early. That will give Messi opportunities, and it will also give him the chance to convert a penalty should the Australians play sloppy early on.

Argentina has a lot of goal scorers, and there is always the chance that one of them scores first and Messi adds on later. If you would rather just bet Messi to score at any time in this game, the line at PointsBet is significantly better than anywhere else. He is listed at -120, while at DraftKings, he is -165.

Where to Bet on Argentina vs. Australia Picks

  Here are our best World Cup betting sites:  

Argentina-Australia picks made 12/1/2022 at 7:06 p.m. ET