Senators Next Head Coach Odds & Prediction for 2024-25 Season
With Jacques Martin not returning for the 2024-25 NHL season, we're looking at the Ottawa Senators' next head coach odds from our best NHL betting sites.
Few jobs in pro hockey have had less job security over the past two decades than head coach of the Ottawa Senators.
That revolving door will spin once again after D.J. Smith was fired mid-way through the 2023-24 NHL season and interim head coach Jacques Martin (71) said he won't return in a full-time capacity.
"Immense disappointment" and "embarrassment" don't begin to describe the Senators' 2023-24 season - their first under the new ownership of Michael Andlauer. The pressure is on general manager Steve Staios to find a long-term solution behind the team's bench and guide this franchise back to the postseason for the first time since a run to the Eastern Conference Final to conclude the 2016-17 campaign.
Below, we're looking at FanDuel Ontario's odds and betting market for the Senators' next head coach.
Senators next head coach odds
(Odds as of April 29)
| Candidate | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| John Gruden | +105 | 48.78% |
| Craig Berube | +175 | 376.36% |
| Dean Evason | +650 | 13.33% |
| Jay Woodcroft | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Gerard Gallant | +1500 | 6.25% |
| Todd McLellan | +2400 | 4.00% |
| Claude Julien | +5500 | 1.79% |
| Chris Kelly | +6000 | 1.64% |
Former Senators captain and 2023-24 interim assistant coach Daniel Alfredsson was taken off the oddsboard following comments from Staios that he isn't in consideration for the head coaching position at this time.
Alfredsson added that he believes he needs more experience before assuming a head coach role, according to TSN's Claire Hanna.
Favorite to be the Senators' next head coach
John Gruden (+105)
John Gruden, the soon-to-be 54-year-old head coach of the AHL's Toronto Marlies is the betting favorite in this market. His +105 odds represent an implied probability of 48.78% to be Martin's replacement. A $10 bet at those odds would return a profit of $10.50 if he's behind the Ottawa bench for Game 1 of the 2024-25 season, according to our betting calculator.
But Gruden has just one year of head coaching experience at the (minor league) professional level. He previously spent one season as an assistant coach for the Boston Bruins following a four-year run in the same role with the New York Islanders. His last head coaching job was a two-year stint with the OHL's Hamilton Bulldogs from 2016-18.
All indications from Staios and stakeholders with the Senators point toward a strong preference for someone with NHL experience (and success).
Senators next head coach prediction
Jay Woodcroft (+4800)
Jay Woodcroft's odds to be the next head coach of the Senators ballooned from +2000 to +4800, and now represent an implied win probability of 2.04%, and a winning $10 bet would return a profit of $480 if he's the man behind the bench to begin the next regular season.
Woodcroft was the head coach of the Edmonton Oilers from Feb. 10, 2022, to Nov. 12, 2023. He went 79-41-13 over 133 games. The Oilers lost to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2022 Western Conference Final and to the Las Vegas Golden Knights in the second round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Both opponents went on to win the Stanley Cup that year.
He was then fired amid a 3-9-1 start this season. Credit or discredit Woodcroft as much as you'd like for his lack of tangible success leading a team equipped with the generational talents of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The fact of the matter is that the Oilers were a powerhouse regular-season team, and it's very fair to question whether they truly underperformed in the postseason considering who they had to go up against.
There's no confusing the likes of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Josh Norris for McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Still, there are similarities between the Sens and Oilers in their youth and offensive skill.
Ottawa's main areas of need and/or improvement this offseason are between the pipes, and the bottom of their roster both at forward and on defense.
Sound familiar?
The Senators may not be assured of playoff success with Woodcroft, but he would bring experience leading a young and offensively gifted group. With the correct veteran additions from management (something Woodcroft seemingly never benefited from while in Edmonton), the hire would bring some much-needed stability to a success-starved fanbase.
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Ottawa Senators head coach history
After going a combined 41-200-19 over their first 260 games of existence under head coaches Rick Bowness and Dave Allison, the Senators found stability, consistency, and success when hiring Martin in 1996.
Martin went 341-235-116 at the helm from 1996-2004. Since his departure, the Senators had eight different head coaches - plus interim head coach Marc Crawford (2019) - from 2005-2023, before Martin's (interim) return. Only three of those coaches (including Smith) finished with a losing record during their tenure, but many started strong before fizzling out with the locker room.
| Coach | Years |
|---|---|
| Rick Bowness | 1992-95 (235 games) |
| Dave Allison | 1995-96 (25 games) |
| Jacques Martin | 1996-04 (692 games) |
| Bryan Murray | 2005-07, 2008 (18 games) |
| John Paddock | 2007-08 (64 games) |
| Craig Hartsburg | 2008-09 (48 games) |
| Cory Clouston | 2009-11 (198 games) |
| Paul MacLean | 2011-14 (238 games) |
| Dave Cameron | 2014-16 (137 games) |
| Guy Boucher | 2016-19 (228 games) |
| Marc Crawford | 2019 (18 games) |
| D.J. Smith | 2019-23 (317 games) |
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