It's a busy night in the NHL on Wednesday with 15 games, including the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Ottawa Senators at T-Mobile Arena. Here are our top Senators-Golden Knights picks.
Ottawa heads to T-Mobile Arena on a 2-9-1 run following a 5-1 road loss to the San Jose Sharks on Monday. The Golden Knights aren't a slump-busting opponent, either.
Vegas sits atop the Western Conference with a 15-4-1 record, and the Golden Knights rank third in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five.
Senators No. 1 defenseman Thomas Chabot has missed the team's past four games with a concussion, and he’s questionable for Wednesday. His status warrants monitoring leading up to puck drop.
The two starting goalies project to be Logan Thompson for Vegas (10-3 record, .920 save percentage, and a 2.40 goals-against average), and Cam Talbot for Ottawa (1-4, .909, 2.80).
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Wednesday's game between the Senators and Golden Knights (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Senators vs. Golden Knights Game Info
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 23, 10 p.m. ET
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Senators vs. Golden Knights Odds
Senators vs. Golden Knights Odds Analysis
The Golden Knights are receiving the majority of the early moneyline wagers, and there’s a disparity in the odds across our top-rated sportsbooks. Vegas is trading as low as -255 via PointsBet, and as high as -230 through both DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks.
The total hasn't been moving. It remains at 6.5, and the Over is drawing the early action. The Over money will continue coming in all day, but I'd be surprised if this total climbs to 7.
Senators vs. Golden Knights Picks
Senators vs. Golden Knights ML Pick
Golden Knights win in regulation (-142) ★★★
I’m turning to the in-regulation market to grab better odds than the Golden Knights' moneyline. I usually prefer to pay extra vig in this market, instead of needing a team to notch a two-plus goal regulation victory through the -1.5 puck line.
In this case, Vegas is simply a class above the Senators.
The Golden Knights rank third in both expected goals per 60 minutes and expected goals for percentage at five-on-five when adjusted for score and venue. Ottawa's adjusted ranks are ninth-highest in expected goals against per 60 and 17th in expected goals for percentage.
Ottawa is also a miserable 1-5-1 on the highway in 2022-23, and Vegas has only surrendered 16 goals through nine home games.
Senators vs. Golden Knights O/U Pick
Under 6.5 (-105) ★★★
There’s definitely potential for the Golden Knights to experience a statistical correction defensively on home ice, and especially with the Senators icing a capable collection of scorers. It's not surprising to see the early money coming in on the Over at 6.5 goals.
Still, with the Golden Knights allowing the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes in the league on home ice, I’m expecting them to limit the Senators on Wednesday. The Under has also hit in five consecutive Ottawa games.
It might be worth waiting to bet this Under, too. If Over money continues to roll in, better odds could be available closer to puck drop.
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Senators vs. Golden Knights Prop Pick
Batherson Over 2.5 shots on goal (+122) ★★★
Senators winger Drake Batherson has returned to the No. 1 line with center Tim Stutzle and winger Brady Tkachuk. That's a huge upgrade in the potential opportunities for Batherson. The trio has been driving possession at five-on-five with a 59.1 Corsi For percentage.
More importantly, Batherson went Over this 2.5 shot total against the San Jose Sharks on Monday after going back to the top line.
Additionally, Stutzle, Tkachuk, and Batherson have combined for 74.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes in 2022-23. That dips to 58.0 when Batherson isn't skating with Stutzle and Tkachuk.
I also value the plus-money odds on a 2.5 shot total.
Where to Bet on Senators-Golden Knights Picks
Senators-Golden Knights picks made 11/23/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.