Sabres vs. Canadiens Prediction & Odds | Game 3 NHL Picks for Today, May 10
The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres meet at the Bell Centre for Game 3 tonight, and I'm backing the home betting favorite to secure the 2-1 series lead in my Sabres vs. Canadiens prediction.
The Canadiens were the superior team for large portions of the opening two games in Buffalo. I expect the -122 betting favorite to take it to the Sabres at home, with Jakub Dobes standing tall when required. With my player prop, I've decided to feature Alex Tuch.
๐ Sabres vs. Canadiens picks & odds today: May 10
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| ๐ฐ Pick | โ๏ธ Bet size (units) | ๐ง Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Canadiens ML (-122 via DraftKings) | 1u โ 0.82u | The Canadiens have been the better team, and I prefer Jakub Dobes between the pipes |
| Over 5.5 (-130 via DraftKings) | 0.5u โ 0.77u | The Habs are due for a home Over |
| Alex Tuch Over 2.5 shots (+108 via Caesars) | 1u โ 1.08u | Tuch went off for 6 shots in Game 2 |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.67 units
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๐ Who will win Sabres vs. Canadiens?
The Montreal Canadiens were the better team for most of Games 1 and 2 in Buffalo, and I expect them to really turn it on in Montreal. I believe they also have the edge in goal, which should help them secure a 4-3 victory.
Score prediction: Canadiens 4, Sabres 3 (+4000)
๐ฐ Sabres vs. Canadiens prediction & best bet
Canadiens ML (-122)
The Canadiens were the best team for most of the first two games. Despite losing Game 1, they outshot the Sabres 28-16. In the second game, the Habs won the expected goals battle 2.78 to 2.33. And I expect them to be even better at home.
I also believe the Habs have the advantage in goal. Dobeลก was back at his best in Game 2, while Alex Lyon had his worst outing since taking the crease to start Game 3 of the first round. He finished with -1.59 goals saved above expected.
And then there's the Tage Thompson situation, with many believing he's playing injured. He hasn't been at his best recently, enduring a woeful Game 2 outing, where he was minus-4.
๐ฅ Best Sabres vs. Canadiens player prop bet
Alex Tuch Over 2.5 shots (+108)
If Thompson is injured, Alex Tuch will have to raise his game to another level. He was much more dangerous in Game 2, firing six shots on Dobes.
The Sabres almost doubled their shots output from Games 1 to Game 2, and I expect Tuch to let loose whenever the opportunity arises. He hit the Over in four of the first five games, but only had at least three shots in one of the previous three.
💡 NHL player props
Expecting the Habs' captain to have another productive outing, I featured Nick Suzuki in my NHL player props.
๐ Sabres vs. Canadiens same-game parlay
The Canadiens are going to pour it on at the Bell Centre, and we'll soon find out whether Lyon is up to the task. He's been excellent for the most part, but I feel an Over is finally on the cards.
With the onus on Tuch to produce more offensively, he should be trying to get as many pucks as he can on net.
💵 Sabres vs. Canadiens SGP picks
- Canadiens ML (-122)
- Over 5.5 (-130)
- Alex Tuch Over 2.5 shots (+105)
Best odds: +560 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.56u)
๐ต My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 105-115-4 | +23.01 units โ | 11.1% โ |
| Player props | 69-84 | +2.35 units โ | 1.6% โ |
| Parlays | 4-21 | -0.26 units โ | -8.3% โ |
๐ก How I'm betting Sabres vs. Canadiens
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
The Canadiens haven't scored four goals on home ice yet. I liked how they produced in Buffalo, which should bode well for an uplifting performance at the Bell Centre.
That said, I'm not confident enough to invest a full unit. I'll leave the full-unit bets for a Montreal victory and Tuch to get at least 3 shots. Each unit is $10.
๐ Live Sabres vs. Canadiens odds: Game 3
๐ Sabres vs. Canadiens betting trends
| Sabres | Statistic | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L record | 5-4 |
| 4-4 | ATS record | 8-1 |
| 4-4 | O/U record | 3-6 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
๐ Sabres vs. Canadiens injuries
๐บ How to watch Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 3
- Date: Sunday, May 10
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Bell Centre (Montreal)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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