Lightning vs. Bruins NHL Picks: Scoring Woes Continue for Boston

Saturday's 10-game NHL slate is headlined by an Eastern Conference showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins. We tee it up with our Lightning-Bruins picks.

The Lightning and Bruins enter Saturday's play third and fifth, respectively in the Eastern Conference. Both teams had Friday off after each picked up a win on Thursday. Boston blanked the Nashville Predators 2-0 on the road, and Tampa Bay doubled up the St. Louis Blues 4-2 on home ice.

This is the first game of a five-game road trip for the Bolts, while the B's will embark on a three-game Western Canada road trip on Wednesday.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s NHL matchup between the Lightning and Bruins (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lightning vs. Bruins Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 4, 7 p.m. ETTV: NESN, BSSUNLocation: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Lightning vs. Bruins Odds Analysis

The Lightning opened as short underdogs at most top sportsbooks but DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook now hang -110 odds on either side. BetMGM is giving us the best value on the visitors with +100 odds.

The Over/Under has held steady at 5.5 but the juice is heavily on the Under with odds as low as -140 at FanDuel. Boston is 10-10 against the O/U and Tampa Bay is 12-9-1 in favor of the Over.

Lightning vs. Bruins Picks

Lightning (+100) ???Under 5.5 (-135) ????

SEE ALSO: Norris Trophy Picks

Lightning vs. Bruins Predictions

Lightning (+100)

The Bruins rank third in the NHL with a 5-on-5 Corsi For rating of 54.32% to give them a decent edge over the Lightning and their 51.96 CF% at full strength. Boston also leads the league with an expected goals for split of 55.73% at 5-on-5; however, the Bruins tallied a total of four goals in their last two games against the Predators and Detroit Red Wings.

Now, the slumping Bruins offense goes up against former Vezina Trophy winner G Andrei Vasilevskiy. He comes into Saturday with a .926 save percentage and 2.14 goals against average through 18 games.

Bruins G Jeremy Swayman has impressed this season with a .921 SV% and 2.20 GAA, but Saturday's contest brings a significant jump from his level of competition of late. His last wins were against the Predators, Buffalo Sabres, and Montreal Canadiens, while the stronger attacks of the New York Rangers and Calgary Flames both got four goals past him on Nov. 21 and 26, respectively.

Back Vasilevskiy to steal a win for the Bolts with the even-money value.

Under 5.5 (-135)

The goaltenders are expected to be the stars of the show on Saturday. The books are juicing the Under hard and it may be a fool's errand to go against them. Instead, I'd take the alternate line of Under 5 (+140). We risk a push with a five-goal total, but even that seems high for this goalie duel.

Swayman is coming off a 42-save shutout of the Predators, while Vasilevskiy recorded back-to-back shutouts of the Philadelphia Flyers and Seattle Kraken last week.

The Bruins have been outscored 14-13 while going 3-3 over their last six games following a stretch of three consecutive five-goal outputs. They will correct toward their impressive analytics before long, but they're unlikely to receive that jumpstart in the tough matchup and still without suspended LW Brad Marchand.

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Lightning-Bruins picks made on 12/04/2021 at 1:20 p.m. ET