Norris Trophy Picks: Aaron Ekblad a Value in NHL Futures Market

Jon Metler

Last Updated: December 3, 2021 9:45 AM EST • 1 min 50 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

SUNRISE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 04: Aaron Ekblad #5 of the Florida Panthers celebrates his goal at 11:04 of the first period against the Washington Capitals on November 04, 2021 at the FLA Live Arena in Sunrise, Florida. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by BRUCE BENNETT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Who's the top defenseman in the NHL? Jon Metler makes his case for one Norris Trophy pick.

Adam Fox or Cale Makar?

Hold off on those two for now, there is a defenseman in the Sunshine State who has something to say about this market.

We look at Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad and his odds to take home the James Norris Trophy with our top picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

2021-22 Norris Trophy Odds

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Norris Trophy Pick: Aaron Ekblad, FLA (+1200)

Ekblad is off to a hot start in the 2021-22 NHL season. He is currently leading all defensemen with 23 points and a plus-21 rating. His plus/minus is good for a share of second among all skaters across the NHL.

Fox won the Norris Trophy last season with a rating of plus-19. The previous season, Nashville Predators D Roman Josi took home the award with a rating of plus-22.

Ekblad is also sporting a higher expected goals for percentage and goals above replacement than Norris Trophy front runners Makar and Fox. His dominance has especially been felt in 5-on-5 play. The Panthers have 28 goals for and only 11 against when Ekblad has been on the ice at full strength this season.

The value

Ekblad opened the season at +1600 to win the Norris Trophy, and the market has been slow to adjust to his current level of play. This type of start to the season should have seen his number be adjusted to much shorter than the current +1200.

If you buy him at +1200, you are giving yourself ample opportunity to circle back in due time and take another player he is competing against for the award closer to the end of the regular season.

At +1200, this wager provides the bettor with flexibility moving forward. Expect the market to catch up to his level of play and make his odds much shorter than the current price.

The narrative

In any award that is based on voting, the narrative around a player is important. Ekblad suffered a devastating left leg fracture during the 2020-2021 season. The narrative around him coming back from that injury and playing at such a high level will only help with the voters.

There is also the angle of him being the best defenseman on the best team in the NHL. The Panthers are serious contenders for the Presidents' Trophy.

In any voting award, team success will help your campaign. A former first overall pick who started playing in the NHL at the age of 18 feels like someone the voters would want to reward. There has been tremendous pressure on Ekblad since he entered the league and a landmark season accompanied by team success will be respected by the voters.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.