Capitals vs. Flyers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Is Philadelphia Ready to Handle Washington?

The red-hot Washington Capitals visit an improving Philadelphia Flyers squad on Wednesday. Read on for our best Capitals vs. Flyers pick based on top odds.

Two teams that have improved their outlook in recent weeks hook up in Philadelphia.

The Washington Capitals struggled early, in part due to injuries, but they are getting healthier and have one regulation loss in their past 11 games.

After a miserable start to the season, the Philadelphia Flyers have shown signs of life, winning five of their past six games.

Can the resurgent Flyers slow down the surging Capitals?

Here is our best Capitals vs. Flyers NHL pick (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Capitals vs. Flyers Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2023, 7 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+, NBCSP, NBCSWA+
• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

Capitals vs. Flyers Odds

Check out our complete list of NHL odds here!

Capitals vs. Flyers Odds Analysis

The moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook opened with the Capitals at -150 and moved as far as -194 for the favorites before coming back to -178 for a Washington win. Philadelphia was offered up to +160 at FanDuel, but has since settled at +150.

A hefty 67% of the moneyline wagers have come in on the Capitals.

The total opened at 6 at FanDuel, with the Over at -122 and the Under at even money. Now that 60% of the consensus wagers are on the Over, the price hascome down at FanDuel, so the Over is -114, with the Under at -106.

Capitals vs. Flyers Pick

Flyers ML (+158) ⭐⭐⭐

Since Dec. 3, the Capitals have a 13-2-2 record, earning a .824 points percentage which is tied with the Boston Bruins for the best mark in the league over that time.

In that time, Washington ranks second with 4.01 goals for per 60 minutes and first with 2.04 goals against per 60 minutes. That is a dominant stretch of play.

In those 17 games, Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin scored 16 goals and put 83 shots on goal, lifting the Capitals to new heights. Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson have returned to the lineup and Washington is now in a playoff spot, climbing to fourth place in the Metropolitan Division.

Philadelphia has made progress recently, too, winning five of six since the holiday break.

Flyers winger Travis Konecny has been driving the offense, putting up nine goals and 17 points during a nine-game point streak.

Admittedly, it is a very small sample, but since the break, the Flyers have controlled 54.7% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts and 52.6% of expected goals, ranking fourth and 10th, respectively. This from a team that has hovered in the mid-20s in both categories over the full season.

It is too soon to say that these changes in Philadelphia’s underlying numbers are for real, but it is enough to like them as a home underdog. 

This is not so much about whether the Capitals are the better team, because they are, but there is more value to be found by grabbing the underdog Flyers. If the Flyers were not playing a team that has been on such a dominant run, I would be more inclined to attach more stars to this pick.

Check out our Calder Trophy Odds.

Capitals vs. Flyers Best Odds

Caesars (+158)

There is some notable variance among the top sportsbooks when it comes to this game. By my calculations, the Flyers offer value beyond +140 or so, which makes Caesars at +158 a relatively appealing price.

That is also significantly better than BetMGM, offering Philadelphia at +145 – a 13% difference, which is substantial on a moneyline wager for hockey. It seems that the market does not quite know what to make of the Flyers’ recent form.

With more money coming in on the Capitals, there may be even better value available closer to game time.

Capitals-Flyers pick made 1/11/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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