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Titans vs. Jaguars SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Can Lawrence Secure AFC South Crown?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 7, 2023 10:58 AM EST • 2 min 54 sec read.

Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Oct. 16.
Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Oct. 16. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

Jacksonville and Tennessee take the spotlight on Saturday night and we've got a same-game parlay with the top props. Here are our top Titans vs. Jaguars SGP picks.

The battle for the AFC South crown comes down to Saturday night in Jacksonville as the race between the Jaguars (8-8) and Titans (7-9) comes down to the Week 18 result.

Will Derrick Henry’s one-man wrecking crew be enough to keep pace with Trevor Lawrence and the refined passing game he’s leading for the Jaguars?

Here are our best Titans vs. Jaguars NFL SGP picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Titans vs. Jaguars SGP Picks Week 18

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Titans vs. Jaguars Odds

SGP Predictions for Titans vs. Jaguars

Jaguars -6.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs performed admirably in his Titans’ debut in Week 17 but the limitations of the offense without Henry were evident. Although Henry will return for Saturday evening, it’s difficult to envision how the Tennessee offense will keep pace.

The Jaguars have been humming in recent weeks, averaging an impressive 31.5 points per game over their last four contests. The matchup against Tennessee’s defense is juicy for Lawrence as the Titans rank 29th in pass defense DVOA. Although Tennessee has a 5-2-1 against the spread record as the road team this year, Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS at home.

The lack of veteran Ryan Tannehill running the offense in a raucous road environment also dings my expectations for Tennessee in this matchup. Though Henry is certainly capable of carrying the load - even against the Jaguars’ 12th-ranked rush defense DVOA - it won’t be enough to hang with the Jacksonville passing game. With the line at -6.5, FanDuel offers more favorable odds on this wager at -108 compared to -110 at DraftKings.

Over 39.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee has slogged out a number of its games this season as eight games have finished below a 40-point total. But the advantage of this FanDuel line at 39.5 - a full point below the 40.5 offering for SGPs at DraftKings - is attractive given the path to success for both offenses in this matchup.

The first meeting between the Jaguars and Titans in Nashville resulted in a 36-22 win for Jacksonville as Lawrence torched the woeful Tennessee secondary for three passing touchdowns. In a comfortable home environment with no wind concerns, there’s little reason to believe Lawrence can’t shred the Titans once again.

Concern over whether Tennessee will contribute meaningfully to this total is fair, but if leaning heavily into a well-rested Henry isn’t the game plan with their season on the line, they can go ahead and fire offensive coordinator Todd Downing right now. Henry averaged 7.1 yards per carry the first time he faced Jacksonville this season, so the path to a couple of touchdowns still exists for the Titans.

Trevor Lawrence Over 265.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Titans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to clear this line against them in five of their past six games and in 11 of 16 games this season. And it’s really 11 of 14 if you remove the Houston Texans games from the ledger.

Tennessee’s defense has allowed an average of 279.3 passing yards per game, more than any other team in the NFL this season. When Lawrence faced this unit in early December, he racked up 368 passing yards. Tennessee simply can’t stop the style of offense that Jacksonville has learned to play as this season has developed under Doug Pederson’s tutelage. 

Lawrence has three games with 300-plus passing yards since Thanksgiving. With so much on the line for both teams, it would not be surprising to see a tighter game this time around, but not to the extent that these lines are projecting.

Titans-Jaguars SGP picks made 1/7/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.