Survivor Pool Picks Week 8: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

The New York Giants followed the Arizona Cardinals in pulling off an upset as the biggest underdog on the board for the second consecutive week, but my NFL survivor pool picks continue to avoid these landmines and advance our strategy each week.

Nine of the 14 games on the Week 8 NFL slate have point spreads of 3.5 or lower, but I’ve provided some safe and strategic options for survivor pool contestants, including an AFC team off to its best six-game start since 2021 as part of my NFL Week 8 predictions.

Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 8

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Safest NFL survivor pick: Bengals (85.7%) over Titans

Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 8.

If Cincinnati becomes the fourth straight week's biggest favorite to lose outright, it would be a gargantuan upset against a Titans team that has scored 10 or fewer points in three of its seven games

The Bengals impressively outscored the Ravens 35-0 in the second half last week, and haven’t started this well through six games (4-2) since the last time they made the Super Bowl in 2021. 

Joe Burrow now has 11 games with four or more touchdown passes since that 2021 season (the most in the league). While Tennessee’s offense has looked better in back-to-back weeks and got 129 rushing yards and three touchdowns from Tony Pollard last week, its defense is now the bigger concern. The Titans allowed a 53.6% rushing success rate to a Browns offense that entered the week with a bottom-five rate in that metric (34.2%).

Best NFL survivor pick: Cowboys (74%) over Cardinals

Many would classify Dallas as their team to avoid in survivor pools this week, as Arizona is responsible for two of the five upsets this season from a team that had +350 moneyline odds or longer. And while both of those upsets came on the road in a domed environment at SoFi Stadium, perhaps we’re overvaluing those wins a little against Chargers and Rams teams that are a combined 3-10.

Arizona’s league-worst scoring defense (29.7 points per game) couldn’t limit a struggling Denver offense. The Broncos still managed 30 points even though Bo Nix was just 1-for-7 passing on throws downfield.

The Cardinals should have no answer for the elite wide receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. This is a smart spot to use the Cowboys, even off a short week, as most of their schedule down the stretch is littered with divisional games or games against the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, and Jaguars.

NFL survivor strategy pick: Commanders (65.5%) over Eagles

Survivor pool strategy picks are meant to be contrarian for a reason, not only to avoid the popular plays that others use each week, but to leave the more elite teams to use later in the season when the pickings are much more slim. Thus, backing a Washington team playing its first full game without Terry McLaurin (torn patellar tendon) who is led by Jayden Daniels (0-7-1 in his last eight starts) certainly qualifies as an outside-the-box play.

Washington has the ultimate scheduling advantage coming off a bye week and facing an Eagles team that played on Monday night. The Commanders lost to Philadelphia by two points in Week 1 (they were a two-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime). But that game was played  with a healthy Jalen Hurts, and Washington even overcame allowing 5.4 yards per carry in that road contest.

NFL survivor pick to avoid: Patriots (79%) over Dolphins

The Dolphins are coming off their first win under new head coach Jeff Hafley, a 28-25 road victory against the Jets. Miami was the more disciplined and physical team from the get-go, jumping out to a 14-0 lead (its first lead at any point this season) on the backs of two long drives that combined for 21 plays and chewed up almost 12 minutes of clock.

I understand that a win against the lowly Jets doesn’t indicate that Miami is “back” by any means, but I’m avoiding New England simply because weird things tend to happen when it travels to the heat and humidity in Florida. The Dolphins have a winning record against the Patriots over the last 19 matchups (11-8), including winning four of the previous five at home.

New England is on a 16-game winning streak as favorites, but there are better spots to use the Patriots in survivor pools down the stretch, like in the home rematch against Miami or when they play at the Jets in Week 16.

Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 8

Entering the Week 7 Monday Night Football contest between the Cowboys and Eagles, nearly half of 1,275 Circa Sports survivor pool entries that were alive to start the week had been eliminated. Over 48% of the pool comprised the 617 eliminated entries, with the Texans and Jets being two of the week's most widely used teams that lost outright.