NFL Survivor Picks Week 12: Time to Sink or Swim with Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins host the Houston Texans at Hard Rock Stadium Sunday, and Miami tops our Week 12 survivor picks rankings.
Week 11 wasn’t as disastrous as most this season for survivor poolies, and each of our top-eight picks won. There are also a number of big favorites to target in Week 12. The Kansas City Chiefs receive the largest chalk on the docket, but it’s actually the Dolphins topping this week’s rankings.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the top teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week.
Week 12 Survivor Pick Rankings
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, Nov. 23, at 10:30 a.m. ET.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
| Dolphins | -13 | -720 | 87.8% |
| Chiefs | -14.5 | -1100 | 91.7% |
| 49ers | -9.5 | -450 | 81.8% |
| Bills | -9.5 | -450 | 81.8% |
| Cowboys | -9.5 | -420 | 80.8% |
| Buccaneers | -3.5 | -176 | 63.8% |
| Commanders | -4 | -198 | 66.4% |
| Eagles | -7 | -310 | 75.6% |
| Seahawks | -3.5 | -194 | 66.0% |
| Chargers | -4.5 | -215 | 68.3% |
| Jets | -4.5 | -205 | 67.2% |
| Ravens | -4 | -205 | 67.2% |
| Vikings | -2.5 | -136 | 57.6% |
| Titans | +1.5 | +108 | 48.1% |
| Steelers | +2.5 | +122 | 45.0% |
| Broncos | -2.5 | -136 | 57.6% |
| Panthers | +2.5 | +116 | 46.3% |
| Colts | -2.5 | -144 | 59.0% |
| Bengals | -1.5 | -126 | 55.8% |
| Patriots | +2.5 | +116 | 46.3% |
| Jaguars | +4 | +172 | 36.8% |
| Bears | +4.5 | +172 | 36.8% |
| Cardinals | +4.5 | +180 | 35.7% |
| Raiders | +3.5 | +162 | 38.2% |
| Packers | +7 | +250 | 28.6% |
| Falcons | +4 | +166 | 37.6% |
| Browns | +3.5 | +148 | 40.3% |
| Giants | +9.5 | +330 | 23.3% |
| Lions | +9.5 | +350 | 22.2% |
| Saints | +9.5 | +350 | 22.2% |
| Rams | +14.5 | +700 | 12.5% |
| Texans | +13 | +520 | 16.1% |
Top NFL Survivor Picks
5. Buccaneers (at Browns)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rested following their Week 11 bye, and they’ve also won two consecutive games. Tampa had its best offensive grade of the season in Week 10, per Pro Football Focus, and the defense is healthy and among the league’s better units.
Expect the Buccaneers to continue improving on offense as the season progresses, while the Cleveland Browns rank 31st in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and 30th in defense grade per Pro Football Focus.
4. Bills (at Lions)
It’s been a nice three-game stretch for the Detroit Lions, but this is too steep of an uptick in class. The Buffalo Bills should to move the ball with ease against a vulnerable Detroit defense ranking 25th in DVOA and grading 29th per PFF.
Additionally, even with a few Buffalo defensive starters already ruled out for Thursday's matchup, I don’t envision Lions quarterback Jared Goff leading Detroit to victory.
Check out our Bills-Lions picks.
3. 49ers (vs. Saints)
The San Francisco 49ers are in the midst of their best stretch of the season and draw the ho-hum New Orleans Saints at Levi’s Stadium in Week 12. San Fran posted its two highest overall grades the past two weeks per PFF, and the Niners are up to sixth in overall DVOA for the campaign.
New Orleans had multiple impact starters sidelined in Week 11, and the Saints are just 1-3 on the road this season. With the 49ers allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play and the third-highest defense grade per PFF, I don’t see the Saints keeping pace with the Niners' offense. The 49ers have scored 91 points during their active three-game winning streak.
2. Chiefs (vs. Rams)
Not only have the L.A. Rams lost four consecutive games to drop to the NFC West's basement, they have quarterback uncertainty looming with Matthew Stafford (head) and John Wolford (neck) both nursing injuries.
The Kansas City Chiefs are on a completely different trajectory with four straight wins, and consensus MVP betting favorite Patrick Mahomes starting behind center. Just note, the Chiefs do have multiple upcoming layups on the schedule and the second-easiest slate of remaining opponents by DVOA.
1. Dolphins (vs. Texans)
I’ve positioned the Miami Dolphins No. 1 on this week’s rankings because their schedule isn’t as soft as the Chiefs' down the stretch. Four of the Fins' final six games are on the road, and their opponents rank 11th-hardest by DVOA.
Plus, the Houston Texans enter with a 1-8-1 record, including five consecutive losses by a combined 58 points. Houston also ranks last in both DVOA and overall grade per PFF, whereas the Dolphins are seventh and fifth, respectively.
Others to Consider
- Commanders vs. Falcons
- Chargers at Cardinals
- Seahawks vs. Raiders
Favorite to Fade
Eagles (vs. Packers)
Perhaps the past two weeks of underwhelming play will be a wakeup call for the Philadelphia Eagles. On the other hand, I wouldn’t risk a survivor entry this late in the season on a team in the midst of a mini funk.
Additionally, as inconsistent as the Green Bay Packers have been, they definitely aren’t a doormat. They even rank higher than the Eagles in total DVOA over the past two weeks.
Check out our Week 12 teaser picks.
Others to Consider
- Cowboys vs. Giants
- Bengals at Titans
Where to Bet on NFL Week 12 Survivor Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
NFL Week 12 Survivor picks made 11/23/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET
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