Cooper Kupp led the NFL in receiving yards for the first time in his career last season with 1,947 yards. In this article, we have compiled a small cheat sheet that contains the odds for several wide receivers and tight ends to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.

There are several sportsbooks that offer futures markets where you can bet on who will lead the NFL in a particular statistical category. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these odds with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus.

Having compared their projections with their odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards, certain players stand out to me.

2022 Regular Season Receiving Yards Leader Odds

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Moore, WR, Panthers (+3200 via FanDuel)

Even though this is not a quarterback market, you can still notice the hate for Baker Mayfield in the odds. While D.J. Moore has one of the better projections for receiving yards, we are seeing him trade at +3200 to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Mayfield is a major factor in this. 

Moore has surpassed 1,100 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons, which doesn't really appeal to this market. Thus, it is reasonable to question whether he can take his stats to the next level, which would be necessary to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Even though I understand the concern, I do believe Moore has a path.

Let's look at Moore's numbers and do some simple math here. During the 2020 season, Moore averaged 18.1 yards per reception and accumulated 1,193 receiving yards. Moore increased his receptions from 66 in 2020 to 93 in 2021, but his yards per reception decreased from 18.1 to 12.4. With Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Cam Newton as his quarterbacks, Moore had to run shorter routes.

Multiply Moore's 93 receptions by his 18.1 yards per reception average from 2020, and you get 1,683 receiving yards. This is all hypothetical, however, I do not think it is unrealistic for Moore to return to that 18.1 average. Teddy Bridgewater was Moore's quarterback in 2020, and although Mayfield may not be a fan favorite, he does possess some arm strength.

I believe Moore is undervalued in this market, however, I also believe that you will have time to evaluate this situation before making a wager. Following the Carolina Panthers' Week 7 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Panthers' passing schedule becomes significantly easier, which is when I would consider placing a bet on Moore.

Lamb, WR, Cowboys (+1400 via DraftKings)

This season, I am all in on CeeDee Lamb, as he will be Dak Prescott's top wide receiver and should see a ton of targets. Even though I have a very high opinion of Lamb, that does not automatically imply that I am placing a bet on him in this market.

As you can see from both the projections and the odds board, Lamb's price is actually quite accurate. At this stage of the season, Lamb is unlikely to offer any value in this market at +1400. In my opinion, bettors would be better off waiting for some movement on the odds board and hunting for a better price on Lamb as the season progresses.

For those who are looking to capitalize on Lamb's breakout this season, I would recommend using the Offensive Player of the Year futures market, where Lamb is trading at +7500. This is a much better value than laying +1400 for Lamb to lead the NFL in receiving yards.

Chase, WR, Bengals (+1300 via FanDuel)

Although Kupp and Justin Jefferson opened as the favorites in this market, I do favor Ja'Marr Chase over them, given the tight opening lines and the lack of value in this market. Chase is much more appealing to me at +1300 than Kupp or Jefferson at +900.

During his rookie season, Chase accumulated 1,455 receiving yards on only 81 receptions. While Kupp recorded 1,947 yards last season, he did so with an insane workload of 145 receptions. Chase would have had 2,610 receiving yards if he had had the same number of receptions as Kupp last season, with his average of 18 yards per reception. With Joe Burrow at the helm, Chase has the opportunity to capitalize on his explosive abilities as a wide receiver.

In addition, I believe that Chase is being priced a little higher in the market due to the difficulty of the Cincinnati Bengals' passing schedule. In terms of pass efficiency, the Bengals have the toughest schedule in the NFL. It is likely that this will turn many bettors away from Chase, but I actually believe that it may be a positive for Chase.

If you examine Chase's game logs from last season, you will find that his best performances came against the Bengals' most difficult opponents. It is likely that Chase will see many positive game scripts for the Bengals' passing offense this season due to a more difficult schedule and more competitive games.

Where to Bet on NFL Futures 

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:  

FanDuel Sportsbook
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DraftKings Sportsbook
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BetMGM

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