Patriots vs. Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds: Sunday Night Football Week 5

The Buffalo Bills have a chance to take an early commanding lead in the AFC East with a win over the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football, and I break down why to expect just that in my Patriots vs. Bills prediction. 

My SNF picks take into account that Buffalo is anywhere from an 8.0 to 8.5-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC).

Adding to my NFL picks is a play on a Patriots running back’s rushing yards total given Buffalo’s leaky run defense. It’s all part of our NFL predictions for Week 5.

📊 Patriots vs. Bills odds: Sunday Night Football

Latest Sunday Night Football odds updated live in real time.

🏈 Patriots vs. Bills prediction: Sunday Night Football

NFL expert picks for Sunday Night Football; NFL odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Bills -8 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Over 48.5 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: TreVeyon Henderson Over 23.5 rushing yards (-118 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Patriots vs. Bills best bet for SNF

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🦬  Bills -8 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has covered the spread in both of his career starts against the Bills. However, this situation is different, as it involves going against a team with the longest active home winning streak in the NFL (13 games), and in primetime, as Maye’s first-ever NFL start at night.

Bills QB Josh Allen is no stranger to prime-time games, and he is 32-4 SU overall when favored by more than a touchdown. And though Buffalo’s 12-point win against the New Orleans Saints last week wasn’t pretty, it is still impressive to win by that much when committing 11 penalties and defending on four drives that started in its own territory.

Maye is looking to become just the first quarterback since Tom Brady in 2007 to finish with at least a 75% completion percentage and two or more passing touchdowns in three straight games in a single season. However, New England has padded its stats (top quarter of the league in passing DVOA and run defense) while earning its two victories against two of the worst teams in the league: the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers.

Buffalo will not squander this opportunity to build an early three-game division lead. It should also avoid the dubious distinction of joining the 2022 Buccaneers as the only teams since 2010 to cover three straight games in which it was at least an eight-point favorite in each.

Caesars is one of the best sports betting sites offering a spread of -8, which is a half-point lower than several competing sportsbooks. I am laying my $10 wager down there before it aligns with the rest of the market, and would net $9.09 in profits if the Bills cover.

💰 Patriots vs. Bills player prop bet for SNF

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️  TreVeyon Henderson Over 23.5 rushing yards (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson had a 40.3% snap share in Weeks 3 and 4, up from a 31.7% snap share through the first two weeks. 

Henderson gets a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed the second-most rush yards per game this season. Buffalo has also been burned by explosive runs of at least 10 yards on 23.9% of opponents’ rushing attempts. That is the highest in the NFL by a wide 6.1% margin. 

Rookie running backs across the league ran for 737 yards in Week 4, the second-most by a rookie class in a single week in September in NFL history. I am banking on Henderson being a big part of that again this week, as this is too low a total for a player who is more acclimated to a new system each game.

The best number is at BetMGM, as Henderson’s O/U is at 24.5 at the high end of the market. A $10 winning wager through BetMGM’s -118 odds at a 54.13% implied probability would net $8.47 in profits.

How to watch Sunday Night Football

• Matchup: Patriots vs. Bills
• When: Sunday, Oct. 5
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• TV: NBC