Patriots vs. Bills Best Bets & Expert Picks: SNF Player Props and Touchdown Predictions

The Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills are back on prime time as they host the NFC East rival New England Patriots tonight for Sunday Night Football at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

Patriots vs. Bills expert picks: Sunday Night Football

NFL picks for Sunday Night Football with pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale; see the latest NFL odds for the best available price.

• Against the spread pick: Bills -8 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop pick: Drake Maye Over 27.5 rushing yards (-120 via via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills (+185 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• First touchdown prediction: Dalton Kincaid, TE (+1400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don't miss our Patriots vs. Bills parlay picks for a chance at a +470 payday!

🔮 Patriots vs. Bills expert picks for Sunday Night Football

• Patriots vs. Bills prediction
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• Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
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• Patriots vs. Bills best bets and expert picks

Best Patriots vs. Bills picks for Sunday Night Football

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

Best ATS pick: Bills -8 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here's what our NFL expert Mike Spector wrote this week on why he's betting the Bills to cover the large spread as the favorite:

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has covered the spread in both of his career starts against the Bills. However, this situation is different, as it involves going against a team with the longest active home winning streak in the NFL (13 games), and in primetime, as Maye’s first-ever NFL start at night.

Bills QB Josh Allen is no stranger to prime-time games, and he is 32-4 SU overall when favored by more than a touchdown. And though Buffalo’s 12-point win against the New Orleans Saints last week wasn’t pretty, it is still impressive to win by that much when committing 11 penalties and defending on four drives that started in its own territory.

Maye is looking to become just the first quarterback since Tom Brady in 2007 to finish with at least a 75% completion percentage and two or more passing touchdowns in three straight games in a single season. However, New England has padded its stats (top quarter of the league in passing DVOA and run defense) while earning its two victories against two of the worst teams in the league: the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers.

Buffalo will not squander this opportunity to build an early three-game division lead. It should also avoid the dubious distinction of joining the 2022 Buccaneers as the only teams since 2010 to cover three straight games in which it was at least an eight-point favorite in each.

Spector dives more into why he's backing the Bills, along with his favorite player prop, in his Patriots vs. Bills prediction.

Best player prop pick: Drake Maye Over 27.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here's why our NFL expert Matt Jacob is backing Patriots QB Drake Maye as make a difference on the ground:

The Bills might be undefeated, but it’s not because their defense has been stuffing the run. Buffalo is allowing 164.2 rushing yards per game; only Chicago (164.5) is worse. The Bills have had a particularly difficult time containing quarterbacks, surrendering 70 yards to Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and 49 yards to both Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints' Spencer Rattler. In all, QBs are averaging 9 yards per rush against Buffalo.

The Patriots’ Drake Maye isn’t fleet of foot, but he is a capable scrambler. He’s run the ball 24 times and compiled 98 rushing yards, with highs of 31 against Miami and 45 versus Pittsburgh. If Maye takes off at least a half-dozen carries, he’ll beat this projection.

Jacob dives deeper into his outlook on Maye, and others, with his Patriots vs. Bills player props.

Best touchdown scorer prediction: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Here's why Esten McLaren is betting on Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman to score a touchdown against the Patriots and end a three-week scoring drought:

Keon Coleman scored his only touchdown of the season in Week 1 when he was targeted 11 times while catching eight for 112 yards. He hasn't received anywhere near that workload since, with the Bills cruising to 4-0. But Coleman has caught nine of 11 targets across the past three weeks.

Coleman also leads Bills receivers in snaps played each week. He's in an excellent spot on Sunday Night Football against a Patriots team allowing receivers to catch 70.5% of their targets at a 9.80-yard clip. 

Esten also targets two Patriots pass-catchers with his Patriots vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

Best first touchdown scorer prediction: Dalton Kincaid, TE ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here's why our NFL expert Phil Wood is betting on Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid to score the first touchdown on Sunday Night Football:

The Bills have scored first in three of their four games this season. With them favored by more than a touchdown, they’re the more likely team to score first again. And the best option for them isn’t James Cook (+400) or Josh Allen (+600), it’s tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid has already scored first for the Bills in two games. But this is also a great play because the Patriots don’t cover tight ends well. They’ve already allowed two touchdowns to the position, and they rank seventh-worst in the league in yards allowed to tight ends. Kincaid has 14 catches for 179 yards and leads the team with three receiving touchdowns.

Wood also breaks down his other favorite bets in his first touchdown scorer predictions.

Patriots vs. Bills live odds

How to watch Sunday Night Football: Patriots vs. Bills info

• When: Sunday, Oct. 5
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• How to watch: NBC