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NFL Team Win Totals: Top Over/Under Picks and Predictions

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NFL Team Win Totals: Top Over/Under Picks and Predictions
Justin Herbert threw for 5,014 yards in 2021. Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images/AFP.

The NFL schedule has been released and season win totals for teams are available at various sportsbooks. Let’s analyze the numbers and determine where the value lies in our NFL team win totals picks.

The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers own the greatest power ratings in the NFL market, as both teams opened with the highest win totals at 11.5.

As an avid futures bettor, I prefer to wager on regular-season win totals instead of betting on a team to win the Super Bowl. A season-long performance determines a team’s fate against the win total, and that’s easier to predict. It’s best to play markets that allow for the element of time to be used to your advantage. The single-elimination playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl are much more volatile.

Determining when to buy is often more important than what team to buy, as the books will keep adjusting the totals. Always make sure you’re getting the best possible number.

Let’s take a look at each team with our NFL team win totals picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook).

NFL Win Totals Best Best

  • Los Angeles Chargers Over 10 wins (-105 via Caesars)
  • Indianapolis Colts Over 9.5 wins (-120 via Caesars)
  • Baltimore Ravens Over 9.5 wins (-110 via Caesars)
  • Arizona Cardinals Under 9 wins (-130 via Caesars)
  • Chicago Bears Under 6.5 wins (+105 via Caesars)
  • Carolina Panthers Under 6 wins (-115 via DraftKings)

SEE ALSO: Super Bowl 2023 Odds and Picks

NFL Win Totals Breakdowns

Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins (-130/+110 via DraftKings)

The Bills ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA against wide receivers in 2021. That’s expected to get even better in 2022, as the Bills selected Kaiir Elam in the first round, and Tre’Davious White will return from injury.

If you’re interested in playing the Bills to go Over their season win total, Week 9 may be a good time to get the best number from an adjusted line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

The Buccaneers began 2021 with a win total of 12 and won 13 times. Tom Brady is back and Bruce Arians has retired, yet something still feels off about this team.

If you intend to wager on the Over, the Buccaneers face a challenging schedule to begin the campaign. Wait until their Week 5 game against the Falcons to see if you can purchase a better number when the lines have been adjusted.

Green Bay Packers: 11 Wins (-120/+100 via DraftKings)

Davante Adams led the Packers in targets on third down (43), in the red zone (27), against the blitz (45), and while Aaron Rodgers was under pressure (21). Opening the Packers at 11 wins is a proper number to account for his absence.

Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

On the surface, the Rams’ schedule is difficult. However, their saving grace may be a weaker NFC West than anticipated. The San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, and Seattle Seahawks could decline. Cynthia Freelund of the NFL Network projects the Rams to win 11.5 games, a game higher than their current total being offered through several sportsbooks.

SEE ALSO: 2023 Super Bowl Debate

Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 Wins (-105/-115 via DraftKings)

The Cowboys blew past their win total in 2021, opening at nine before finishing with 12 wins. Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings slotted the Cowboys as the No. 1 team in 2021.

Dallas will deal with a difficult start to its schedule, as the team faces the Buccaneers and Bengals. The Cowboys will win 9.6 games in 2022, according to Freelund.

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins (-115/-105 via DraftKings)

I truly believe that the Chiefs will regret the Tyreek Hill trade for at least this season despite the fact that Mahomes is an elite talent. Hill brought a unique dynamic to the offense that is impossible to replace.

The Chiefs opened the 2021 season at 12.5, which means the sportsbooks have already taken into account the changes to the roster. I tend to lean towards the Under on the Chiefs, but I do not have an official play at this time.

San Francisco 49ers: 10 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo? Will Deebo Samuel ever play for the 49ers again?

With so many questions surrounding this team, I prefer the Under to the Over here. But I am not sure how you assess the Niners without more information at this point.

Los Angeles Chargers: 10 Wins (-115/-105 via Caesars)

I place the Chargers much higher in my personal power rankings compared to where others rank them. Their defense was their major shortcoming last season, and they have made significant improvements since trading for Khalil Mack and signing JC Jackson. Freelund has the Chargers winning 10.4 games in 2022.

Denver Broncos: 10 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

According to Pro Football Focus, Russell Wilson would be considered a 3.5-point upgrade for the Broncos versus Teddy Bridgewater. Football Outsiders’ metrics for the Broncos last season had their offense better than their defense.

Denver is being priced as if this is Peyton Manning 2.0 leading the team, but I do not believe it. Although I lean toward the Under, I have no official position here.

Cincinnati Bengals: 10 Wins (+110/-130 via DraftKings)

The Bengals may have reached the Super Bowl, but they only won 10 games during the regular season. Cincinnati won these 10 games while playing a fourth-place schedule, which will not be the case in 2022.

This season, they will have the honor of playing a first-place schedule, which is a challenging one. Freelund has the Bengals winning 9.1 games this year, well below their total of 10.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 Wins (-130/+110 via Caesars)

Despite winning nine games last season, the Colts upgraded their quarterback position this offseason by trading for Matt Ryan and sending Carson Wentz to Washington. Via Pro Football Focus, Ryan contributes 3.5 more points to the point spread than Wentz.

Ryan may not be much of a needle mover for many people. But Frank Reich was able to win 11 games with Phillip Rivers in 2020. This is a win total you may wish to consider investing in right now since the Colts open the season against the Texans and Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans: 9.5 Wins (+115/-135 via DraftKings)

I also like the Colts Over their win total primarily because I expect the Titans to experience a significant decline in 2022.

We have seen Derrick Henry’s broken/missed tackle percentage decline each of the last four seasons, and now the Titans have also traded away Tannehill’s primary weapon in A.J. Brown. The sportsbooks see a regression coming as well, as they have set their win total at 9.5. Juiced to the Under, I would not bet on the Under or the Over here.

Baltimore Ravens: 9.5 Wins (-130/+110 via Caesars)

I consider the Ravens to be one of my favorite Over plays for the 2022 season.

The public opinion of the Ravens has declined, providing an opportunity for us to purchase a lower win total. Baltimore opened at 10.5 in 2021, and this season 9.5 is available. After finishing fourth in the AFC North last season, the Ravens now have one of the easier schedules in the NFL. They will face the NFC South and the AFC East, as well as the Jaguars and Giants. Despite significant injury problems last season, they still managed to win eight games.

Miami Dolphins: 9 Wins (+100/-120 via DraftKings)

Despite ranking 25th at Football Outsiders in total DVOA, the Dolphins ranked 10th in the league when it came to defense last season. Tua Tagovailoa has historically suffered from some of the worst separation among his wide receivers. This season though, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill will be running the routes in 2022. There will be no excuses.

If you plan to play the Over, I suggest you buy the adjusted line prior to the Dolphins first game against the Jets.

Arizona Cardinals: 9 Wins (+115/-135 via Caesars)

Do you remember when Kliff Kingsbury was the favorite to win the NFL Coach of the Year award last season?

As it stands, disaster appears imminent for the Cardinals, who are engaged in a contract dispute with Kyler Murray, will be without Deandre Hopkins for six games as a result of a suspension, and lost Chandler Jones in free agency to the Raiders. The Cardinals should be underdogs in their first three games, thus I am buying the Under right away. Be sure to grab it at 9 as some sportsbooks have already adjusted it to 8.5.

Minnesota Vikings: 9 Wins (+100/-120 via DraftKings)

The Vikings could have made significant changes and begun a rebuild, but they did not. They have instead demonstrated with every move they have made that they are trying to win now and make the playoffs. 9 wins is an appropriate total for the Vikings.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 Wins (-115/-105 via DraftKings)

The Eagles are becoming a popular Over pick as they have received great reviews for the additions of A.J. Brown, Jordan Davis, and Nakobe Dean during the NFL draft. With the release of the schedules, the Eagles’ win total increased from 8.5 to 9.5. Part of this change can be attributed to the fact that they will be favorites in each of their first four games.Β 

Jalen Hurts had a lower passing grade than both Daniel Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo last season according to Pro Football Focus. If I were you, I would allow the Eagles to get off to a hot start by potentially starting 4-0 before looking for an Under play in the adjusted line.

New England Patriots: 8.5 Wins (-120/+100 via DraftKings)

At the end of last season, the Patriots ranked fourth in overall DVOA at Football Outsiders. They were one of six teams that had both a top-10 offense and defense.

According to Freelund’s projections, the Patriots win total is right on the mark. If you are interested in betting the Over on the Patriots win total, waiting until the game against the Lions for an adjusted line might offer the best value.

Las Vegas Raiders: 8.5 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

The Broncos seem to get the most attention, but the Raiders also made big moves this offseason by adding Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. They were already in the playoffs last season, unlike the Broncos.

I believe Las Vegas will exceed their win total of 8.5, but I will wait for an adjusted win total to be released because I believe a better number will be available for them. According to Freelund, the Raiders are projected to win 9.1 games this season.

New Orleans Saints: 8 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

The Saints are not an 8-win team but there are advantages to sharing a division with the Panthers and Falcons. Freelund projects that they will win 8.4 games this season. Since it will be difficult to quantify the loss of Sean Payton to this team, for the time being, I am avoiding the Saints win total.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5 Wins (-120/+100 via DraftKings)

The Steelers defense ranked 14th in the NFL in DVOA at Football Outsiders. It would be a significant improvement if they were able to receive average quarterback play from either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett compared to what they received from Ben Roethlisberger in 2021. Roethlisberger finished 37th in the final quarterback rankings compiled by Pro Football Focus.

Despite Roethlisberger’s poor performance, the Steelers won nine games. Freelund has Pittsburgh winning 8.1 games this season.

Washington Commanders: 7.5 Wins (+105/-125 via DraftKings)

Pro Football Focus has Wentz as a 1.5-point upgrade over Taylor Heinicke. For a team that won seven games with Heinicke under center and with Chase Young inactive for most of the season, you must favor the Over here. I think it is tempting for everyone to jump on the Wentz bashing bandwagon, however, at +105, there is some value in the Over for the Commanders.

New York Giants: 7 Wins (-110/-110 via DraftKings)

The Giants did a great job with the first two picks in the draft by selecting Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal. The Giants opened the 2021 season with the same win total, but they fell significantly short by winning only four games. Their win total will be dependent on how well Brian Daboll is able to utilize Daniel Jones.

Before I make a decision, either way, I would like to see this team play some games under Daboll first.

Chicago Bears: 6.5 Wins (-115/-105 via Caesars)

Justin Fields finished the season ranked 29th in the Pro Football Focus player grades for the 2021 season. Fields finished the year with a lower passing grade than Trevor Siemian, Jacoby Brissett, and Tyler Huntley. In an effort to support their young quarterback, Chicago decided to replace Allen Robinson with Byron Pringle.

As evidenced by the trade of Khalil Mack, the new Bears front office is trying to rebuild, not win. I will be betting on the Bears Under 6.5 before the season begins.

Detroit Lions: 6.5 Wins (-105/-115 via DraftKings) 

Kirk Cousins may wish he was playing for the Lions, as no primetime games would suit him perfectly. Despite being significantly improved, the Lions are still in the process of rebuilding and they will not rush Jameson Williams back to play football.

Although I believe the Lions have a chance to go Over the 6.5 total, I would prefer to take an adjusted win total on the Lions at the beginning of December. Williams should definitely be back by then and they have a stretch where they play the Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, and Bears.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6 Wins (-120/+100 via DraftKings)

Freelund has the Jaguars exceeding the six-win mark by a hair in her projections, but this is not a win total that I would immediately purchase. Three of the Jaguars first four games will take place against playoff teams. I would wait for an adjusted win total on the Jaguars prior to their Week 5 game against the Texans.

Carolina Panthers: 6 Wins (-105/-115 via Caesars)

By acquiring Sam Darnold, the Panthers attempted to be competitive last season yet they only won five games. I believe that there is a very real possibility with Carolina that Matt Rhule will be fired and that they will go into full tank mode in order to acquire one of the top quarterbacks in a stacked draft class.

Along with buying the Under on the Panthers win total, I will also be considering betting on them to have the worst record in the NFL when that prop opens.

New York Jets: 5.5 Wins (-145/+120 via DraftKings)

As can be seen by the way this line is positioned, the Jets are taking a lot of money on the Over for their win total. The Jets are much improved, however, they were given one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL for a fourth-place team.

Instead of playing the Jets Over their 5.5 win total at this time, I would wait until their game against the Lions in December and consider playing their adjusted win total then. They will be playing the Lions, Jaguars, and Seahawks during this period.

Seattle Seahawks: 5.5 Wins (-120/+100 via DraftKings)

In terms of DVOA at Football Outsiders, the Seahawks ranked 9th overall. However, this was primarily due to their 7th ranked offense as opposed to their 21st ranked defense.

Things are different now. Russell Wilson is now in Denver, and Pete Carroll has turned the offense over to Drew Lock, after passing on the quarterback position several times throughout the draft. I do not have a wager on either side with the Seahawks, as this win total is right in line with my expectations.

Atlanta Falcons: 5 Wins (+100/-120 via DraftKings)

The Falcons were a horrific seven-win team last season, and now they have switched Matt Ryan for Marcus Mariota at quarterback. For Atlanta, I would look for an Under on their adjusted win total, if they decide to evaluate Desmond Ridder’s potential before heading into next year’s draft.

Houston Texans: 4.5 Wins (+125/-150 via DraftKings)

The Texans will be trying to position themselves for a top quarterback in next year’s draft. By putting their faith in Davis Mills, Houston has a great opportunity to see what Mills has to offer while not having to win too many games. I lean towards the Under with the Texans but I am not interested in investing with a price of -150.

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NFL team win totals picks made on 5/13/2022 at 3:51 p.m. ET.