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Super Bowl 2023 Odds and Picks: Bills and Buccaneers Projected Teams to Beat

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Super Bowl 2023 Odds and Picks: Bills and Buccaneers Projected Teams to Beat
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills directs the offense against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images via AFP.

With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror and the start of the preseason approaching, we take a look at the NFL futures odds and assess the top picks for the 2023 Super Bowl.

A number of big-name players have switched teams this offseason. Quarterback Russell Wilson was traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos, and QB Deshaun Watson was traded from the Houston Texans to the Cleveland Browns. The NFL is a copycat league and it seems as though teams are trying to follow the model of the 2022 Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, who won in their first season after acquiring QB Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions.

In placing futures bets, you must always consider two factors: will this team actually win the market, and are their odds only going to become shorter from here on out, relative to the early number? If the answer is yes to both of these questions, then you should consider purchasing that specific team. 

Below we examine the 2023 Super Bowl odds and where the value is located ahead of the NFL season.

Super Bowl Odds 2023

SEE ALSO: 2023 Super Bowl Debate

Super Bowl Picks: Favorites

Bills (+700 via PointsBet)

I am not interested in buying the Buffalo Bills at their +700 preseason price point even though they are the clear favorites in the market. At one point last season, the Bills had odds of +300 to win the AFC East and +1600 to win the Super Bowl, after opening at -150 and +1100. The AFC East has improved and I believe if you wait you will be able to obtain a higher number on the Bills during the season.

Buccaneers (+800 via Caesars Sportsbook)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem off to me, and they are not a team I would consider investing in at +800. Although Tom Brady retired and then returned, Miami Dolphins rumors persist for some reason. Then you have Bruce Arians announcing his retirement following Brady's return. I would like to see this team compete in 2022 before investing in any futures odds.

Chiefs (+1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

At +1000, I would not consider a futures bet on the Kansas City Chiefs. A very real possibility exists that the Chiefs may have missed their opportunity to win a second Super Bowl under QB Patrick Mahomes, as they now enter the portion of his contract where he will have a $35 million cap hit. The Chiefs do not interest me at +1000 as receiver Tyreek Hill is gone and the AFC West is now stacked.

Rams (+1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

The defending Super Bowl champion Rams open this season one dollar shorter (+1200) than they did at the beginning of the 2021 campaign. Currently, the Rams account for a little over 4% of the handle at BetMGM, so we aren't seeing them heavily backed for a repeat.

Packers (+1100 via FanDuel)

The Green Bay Packers fell short in the playoffs once again and they head into the 2022 season without their former No. 1 weapon in receiver Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers is one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL who is capable of making any wide receiver better but that is during the regular season. In order to win a Super Bowl he is going to need weapons and I just don’t see it with this roster. At +1100 the Packers are a fade for me.

Super Bowl Picks: Contenders

Chargers (+1600 via FanDuel)

I believe that the Los Angeles Chargers are a team to pay close attention to throughout the season and that their odds will decrease as the season progresses. Aside from having one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert, the Chargers have added J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack to their defense. With all the pieces in place, the Chargers appear poised to take the next step. The Chargers are one of the teams near the top of the odds board that have my attention early on. Even though the division may be tough, the Chargers will get to play a third place schedule in 2022, unlike most of the other favorites.

49ers (+1600 via FanDuel)

In the past few years, I cannot recall seeing so many teams at the top of the futures market in which I had little confidence. It's unclear just how QB Trey Lance will perform when he gets the keys to the offense from the San Francisco 49ers. I would rather invest in a known commodity if I were to buy a +1600 price point this early in the process. Last season, the Niners were +20000 to win the Super Bowl during Week 10 ahead of a late-season push. It is likely that you will be able to purchase a number much higher than +1600 on San Francisco during the season.

Broncos (+1600 via FanDuel)

The acquisition of Russell wasn't as much of a needle mover for me as it may have been for others, but what we didn't know at the time was all the chaos that was going to occur among several other contenders. For the Broncos, +1600 seems a little low to me but this is definitely a team to keep an eye on. They are more appealing today than they were on the day of the trade for Wilson. We should also not overlook the fact that they will play a fourth place schedule after finishing last in the AFC West last year.

Cowboys (+1800 via Caesars)

From a roster talent standpoint, there is no doubt that the Dallas Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFL, but how can you back this team with Mike McCarthy at the helm? The Cowboys were ranked No. 1 by Football Outsiders' DVOA last season and were eliminated in their first playoff game. I will wait until 2023 to bet on the Cowboys in the futures market when Sean Payton is widely anticipated to be their head coach.

Browns (+1900 via FanDuel)

Watson was acquired via trade from the Texans this offseason, and he is expected to be a significant upgrade over Baker Mayfield at the head of the Cleveland Browns offense. The problem with betting on the Browns' Super Bowl futures is that we do not know whether and for how long Watson will be suspended. In the event Watson misses the first six games, the Browns' Super Bowl odds could lengthen, which suggests you should wait for a higher price point than +1900 before placing your bet.

Ravens (+2200 via FanDuel)

Although the Baltimore Ravens have improved their roster, it is amazing how the narrative has changed for them. At the beginning of last season, they were +1400 to win the Super Bowl. This year, they opened at +2200. In John Harbaugh, they have one of the best coaches in the NFL, and they are coming off of a very solid draft. They were plagued by injuries last season but still managed to finish with an 8-9 record. I find it interesting how quickly we forget that they were +900 to win the Super Bowl after their Week 6 victory over the Chargers last season. Make the Ravens part of your watch list at +2200.

Bengals (+2500 via PointsBet)

The Cincinnati Bengals, who are the reigning AFC champions, are not receiving much love from the sportsbooks. With odds of +2500, they are not even in the top 10 on the odds board. We saw the Bengals' odds open at +1200, but following the draft, they're now +2500 to win the Super Bowl.

Colts (+2500 via Caesars)

The Indianapolis Colts have replaced Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan. I do not see much benefit in the trade. Ryan is going to be a better decision maker, but that arm didn't possess much zip last season. At +2500, I am not interested in purchasing the Colts to win the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Picks: Hopefuls

Cardinals (+3000 via Caesars)

The Arizona Cardinals opened with odds of +2000 to win the Super Bowl, but have since been lengthened to +3000. The team is currently involved in a contract dispute with QB Kyler Murray, and we recently learned that receiver DeAndre Hopkins will be suspended for the first six games of the season. Consequently, both of these issues have affected the Cards' futures odds and have caused them to increase from the opening number.

Titans (+3000 via FanDuel)

Imagine being the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season, yet opening the following season with odds of +3000 to win the Super Bowl. Meet the Tennessee Titans. This offseason, the Titans chose to trade star wide receiver A.J. Brown instead of extending him and drafting QB Malik Willis has been the subject of some controversy in the quarterback room. In my opinion, the Titans do not look like a Super Bowl contender and are trending in the wrong direction.

Eagles (+3500 via FanDuel)

The markets have taken note of the Philadelphia Eagles' offseason so far. After opening with odds of +4000, the Eagles have been adjusted to +3500. Through the draft, the Eagles addressed some defensive holes with Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. They shocked us all when they acquired Brown from the Titans in a blockbuster trade. Last season, the Eagles made the playoffs and are trending in the right direction.

Vikings (+4500 via DraftKings)

With their +4500 price point, the Minnesota Vikings are attracting a lot of interest from bettors due to their offensive firepower. Can you imagine QB Kirk Cousins winning multiple primetime playoff games on his way to the Super Bowl? Neither can I. I would rather bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs than to win the Super Bowl.

Dolphins (+4000 via FanDuel)

At the beginning of the 2021 season, the Dolphins were given +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl, and they are receiving the exact same odds for the 2022 campaign. The price point of the Dolphins may not have changed, but I think this year's version is superior to last year's. If I were considering placing a bet on a team with higher odds to win the Super Bowl this early in the process, I would wager my money on the Dolphins at +4000.

Patriots (+4000 via DraftKings)

The New England Patriots opened the offseason with odds of +2200 to win the Super Bowl, but they have now fallen 18 dollars to +4000. It is an interesting move for a team that got as short as +700 to win the Super Bowl this past season with rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

Raiders (+5000 via Caesars)

In addition to the Dolphins, the Las Vegas Raiders offer another intriguing option further down the odds board. A playoff team in 2021, the Raiders improved their roster by trading for Adams, QB Derek Carr's former collegiate teammate. The Raiders are priced very differently across the sportsbooks, with PointsBet offering them as low as +3300 compared to the +5000 offered at Caesars.

Saints (+5000 via DraftKings)

With Sean Payton now retired, I have no interest in betting on the Saints at +5000. Payton was a much better coach than he is given credit for and was a very important part of the New Orleans Saints' success. In 2011, the Saints finished 13-3. In 2012, Payton was suspended and they went 7-9. He returned in 2013 and they finished 11-5.

Super Bowl Picks: Longshots

Commanders (+7000 via Caesars)

After trading for Wentz, the Washington Commanders' odds for winning the Super Bowl increased to +7000 from +5000 when they started the offseason. This tells you pretty much all you need to know about Wentz and why you should stay away from this team in this market.

Steelers (+9000 via PointsBet)

With a price of +9000, I have an interest in backing the Pittsburgh Steelers. DraftKings is currently offering a much shorter price of +6500 for the Steelers. In 2020, this team went 12-4, and all head coach Mike Tomlin does is win games. To consider Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky an upgrade over the 2021 version of Ben Roethlisberger would not be unreasonable.

Panthers (+10000 via FanDuel)

Another offseason has passed and the Carolina Panthers still do not have a competent starting quarterback. I believe the Panthers will go full tank in 2022 in order to obtain one of the top quarterbacks in the loaded 2023 draft class. I would prefer to back the Panthers to lose the most games in the NFL before I would bet on them to win the Super Bowl.

Bears (+10000 via FanDuel)

The Chicago Bears opened the offseason with odds of +6600 to win the Super Bowl and are now all the way back to +10000. As of now, the Bears are not a team that is ready to compete until QB Justin Fields makes the next step.

Seahawks (+12500 via PointsBet)

The Seattle Seahawks began the offseason with odds of +4000 to win the Super Bowl, but when you trade Wilson and plan to begin the season with Drew Lock or Geno Smith as your starting quarterback, your odds tend to be adjusted substantially. Currently, the Seahawks are trading at +12500, and frankly, I think they should be longer

Giants (+12500 via PointsBet)

Their draft was excellent, but it will take more than one offseason for head coach Brian Daboll to make a significant impact on this team. The best price on the New York Giants can be found at PointsBet, where they trade at +12500. They are much shorter at FanDuel, where they are +8000.

Jaguars (+13000 via DraftKings)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been highlighted as a team that might make a big leap this season, much like the Bengals last year, and their odds are reflecting this. PointsBet currently has the Jaguars listed at +9000 to win the Super Bowl, the same odds as the Steelers.

Jets (+15000 via Caesars)

It was a remarkably successful draft for the New York Jets, and they did an excellent job of surrounding QB Zach Wilson with some new weapons in receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. In 2022, the Jets will be much improved, but they are not Super Bowl contenders.

Lions (+15000 via FanDuel)

Although the Lions are definitely trending in the right direction and are beginning to build this team correctly, they will not be Super Bowl contenders in 2022. There is someone who may disagree with me on this topic, as Caesars took a $4,000 wager on the Lions to win the NFC at +7500 prior to the draft.

Falcons (+18000 via FanDuel)

As a result of the possibility of acquiring Watson via trade, the Atlanta Falcons had odds of +5000 to win the 2023 Super Bowl at one point in this offseason. With Watson now in Cleveland and Marcus Mariota now taking over the quarterback position in Atlanta, the Falcons hold odds of +18000 to win the Super Bowl.

Texans (+25000 via Caesars)

Immediately no! The Texans will be in full tank mode in 2022 and are hoping to land one of the top quarterbacks in next year's draft.

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