NFL Moneyline Picks Week 4: Best Bets to Win Every Game This Week

My NFL moneyline picks for Week 4 provide predictions for all 16 games on this week's slate. I enjoyed a 3-0 record on last week's featured games as I look to extend that winning streak. 

My NFL picks, part of the NFL predictions for Week 4, are headlined by the Philadelphia Eagles (-190), Washington Commanders (-111), and Los Angeles Rams (-178). 

🏈 NFL moneyline picks: Week 4

NFL moneyline picks based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 4 moneyline picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐏 Rams (-178) vs. Colts ⭐⭐⭐

The Rams have won seven of their previous eight regular-season games, with the only defeat coming in Philly last week. Matthew Stafford and Co. deserved better against the defending Super Bowl champs, losing due to a last-second blocked field goal.

Sunday at SoFi Stadium offers a perfect bounce-back opportunity against an undefeated, overachieving Indianapolis Colts team. While I don't think the Colts' early-season success is a flash in the pan, they are due for a loss.

The Rams have the fifth-best offensive DVOA, which is far superior to the Denver Broncos' and Miami Dolphins' 18th and 20th rankings, respectively.

Los Angeles boasts the seventh-best defensive passing DVOA, which should present a stiffer challenge for Daniel Jones. And it's been 16 years since the Colts started a season 4-0.

Of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel offers the best value (-178). Those odds imply a 64.03% win probability, and a winning $10 bet will yield a $5.62 profit. 

If you're looking for better value on the Rams, take a look at my against-the-spread picks for Week 4. 

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🦅 Eagles (-190) vs. Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Eagles escaped with their lives against the Rams last week, thanks to a decisive special teams moment and Jalen Hurts' clutch second-half performance. The Eagles QB improved to 17-0 in his previous 17 games he started and finished, including the Super Bowl run. 

While that streak has to end at some point, it shouldn't be against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is dealing with injury concerns to key personnel.

Baker Mayfield won't have Mike Evans - who injured his hamstring last week - at his disposal. Chris Godwin could return to the lineup, but his snaps will be limited even if he does suit up.

Despite left tackle Tristan Wirfs potentially returning, the Buccaneers are still short on the offensive line. And they don't have their sack leader from last season, Calijah Kancey, available. BetMGM and Caesars offer -190 odds, the best available value. 

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🎖️ Commanders (-111) vs. Falcons ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons have similar defensive rankings, with the former 10th and the latter eighth in DVOA.

The stark contrast, however, resides on the offensive side of the ball, with the Commanders boasting the seventh-best DVOA and the Falcons reeling in 24th.  

Albeit against a formidable Minnesota Vikings defense, the Falcons didn't score a touchdown until the fourth quarter in the Week 2 win. Week 3 was exponentially worse as the Falcons were shut out in Carolina.

I have more faith in my stomach's ability to avoid turmoil after 10 Big Macs than I do in Zac Robinson's play-calling and would back the Commanders, although to a lesser degree of confidence if Marcus Mariota's number is called for a second straight week.

The Commanders' moneyline odds range from -111 to -125, with bet365 offering the best value. A winning $10 bet at -111 odds would yield a $9.01 profit on a winning $10 bet. 

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❓ NFL moneyline picks FAQs

What are the best NFL moneyline picks this week?

My best NFL moneyline picks for Week 4 are: Rams (-178), Eagles (-190), Commanders (-111). 

What does the moneyline mean in NFL?

The "moneyline" in the NFL is for betting on a team to win outright, and the return on your bet is determined by the moneyline odds - which are calculated based on the return for a $100 bet. For example, if a team has moneyline odds of +120, then a $100 bet would return a $120 profit. Conversely, if a team has moneyline odds of -120, then a $120 bet would return a $100 profit.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.  

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