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Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium on Nov. 13, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium on Nov. 13, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images via AFP.

Two of the NFL's best quarterbacks go head to head on Sunday Night Football. We discuss which Patrick Mahomes versus Justin Herbert props we like most. Read on for our best Mahomes versus Herbert prop picks. 

When Kansas City Chiefs QB Mahomes and Los Angeles Chargers QB Herbert met back in Week 2, Herbert had more yards and touchdowns than Mahomes, but the Chiefs came away victorious. The Chargers have struggled to stay above .500 since then, but Herbert should get wide receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back after extended absences. Will he have a better day than Mahomes again?

Here are our best Mahomes vs. Herbert Week 11 player prop picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds

Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert Player Prop Picks

Mahomes vs. Herbert Prop Predictions

Herbert more passing yards (+110) ★★★

Mahomes has been putting up video game-like numbers in recent weeks, throwing for over 300 yards in four consecutive games and over 400 in two of his last three. Meanwhile, Herbert hasn't thrown for over 300 yards since Week 5 against the Cleveland Browns.

Yet, Herbert gets back his two main targets this week, while Mahomes will be without both wideouts Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster. This gives Herbert a decided advantage when it comes to passing yards, even if he hasn't topped Mahomes much at all this season.

Mahomes -.5 passing touchdowns (+110) ★★

While Herbert has the advantage when it comes to passing yards, Mahomes has the edge when it comes to passing touchdowns. He still has wideout Travis Kelce, and it's the perfect week to keep fellow wide receiver Kadarius Toney involved. 

Mahomes is heavily favored on the moneyline at -160, yet when a spread is involved, Herbert becomes the favorite to cover a .5-touchdown. Mahomes threw for three or more touchdowns in five games this season, and he's thrown for multiple TDs in five of his last six games.

Herbert threw three touchdowns in his first two season games, but he's only thrown eight touchdowns in the other seven matchups this year. Even with both Allen and Williams, he was more of a yardage quarterback than a touchdown one.

Herbert and Mahomes Over 4.5 TD passes (-105) ★★★★

Even if Herbert hasn’t thrown many touchdowns this season, look for Herbert and Mahomes to combine for five TDs Sunday night. They threw that many in their first meeting and Sunday night’s matchup should feature plenty of opportunities for each to shine again.

In five meetings against the Chiefs, Herbert threw for 13 touchdowns. In just one of those contests he's thrown for less than two. 

Considering that Mahomes should throw for more touchdowns than Herbert, and past history suggests Herbert will throw for at least two, this one should go easily over. One player may even come close to topping it alone.

Where to Bet on Mahomes vs. Herbert Prop Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Mahomes-Herbert prop picks made 11/19/2022 at 10:41 a.m. ET