Lions vs. Falcons Week 16 Picks: Can Detroit Continue Surge?
Don’t look now, but the Detroit Lions are getting hot and they visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16. We break it down with our Lions-Falcons NFL picks.
The Lions have surprisingly been one of the better teams against the spread this year by covering in nine of their 14 games. They’ve also gone 5-1 ATS in their last six contests and have two wins in their last three games. Detroit was held to just 10 points against the Denver Broncos in Week 14, but responded with a 30-12 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week.
The Falcons won two of their last four games and are 6-8 for the season, though you could argue they’re in worse shape than the Lions. They’ve gone 2-4 ATS over their last six games and at home this year they’re a whopping 0-5 ATS.
Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL's Week 16 matchup between the Lions and Falcons (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lions vs. Falcons Week 16 Game Info
Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 26, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GAWeather: Indoors
Lions vs. Falcons Odds Analysis
Detroit opened as a 6.5-point underdog and the line has stayed right there, despite 75% of the money and 69% of the bets being on the Falcons.
The total is down across the board from its open of 44 points. You will find 42.5 almost everywhere but there are some 43s out there. Seventy-five percent of bets are on the Over but 68% of the money is on the Under.
Lions vs. Falcons Picks
Lions +6.5 (-110) ????Under 42.5 (-115) ????
SEE ALSO: NFL Week 16 Parlay Picks
Lions vs. Falcons Predictions
Lions +6.5 (-110)
Detroit has been rolling on offense. QB Jared Goff has seven touchdown tosses and just two interceptions over his last three games with an average of 6.88 yards per attempt over that span. However, he's highly unlikely to play in Week 16, according to head coach Dan Campbell, leaving Tim Boyle in line for his second start of the season.
Still, this Falcons defense is allowing 246.6 passing yards per game, to rank 24th in the NFL. Their 68.9% completion percentage allowed ranks 29th. Atlanta's 30th in DVOA against the pass.
That paragraph doesn’t flow whatsoever; it’s a collection of facts. These facts are very important. Atlanta has no defense to speak of, and Detroit has been much improved of late, especially on offense. The Lions rank a couple of spots higher than the Falcons by total defensive DVOA and with Atlanta’s inability to move the ball on the ground, it could easily lose this game.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan looks totally checked out at this point in the season, and Campbell has his Lions team playing hard. I actually like the Lions to win this game.
Under 42.5 (-115)
Both of these defenses are a straight-up zero, and at least the Lions have done a good job lately with two of their last three team totals going over 28 points. Atlanta has struggled immensely in the secondary and should get shredded for the entire first half.
The Falcons’ rushing attack is infamously bad and that will force Ryan to throw, throw, throw. This game should have plenty of passing and I really don’t think there will be much between the teams to develop into a shootout.
To top it all off, Atlanta is 21st in seconds per play, which should bring the pace of this game down. I think this is a safe bet.
SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Lions-Falcons picks made 12/23/2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
