Jaguars vs. Patriots Week 17 Picks: Jacksonville To Keep It Close with Ground Game

Two teams in very different situations play each other in Week 17 of the NFL season as the Jaguars travel north to face the Patriots. Read on for all our Jaguars-Patriots picks.

Just because the Jacksonville Jaguars are losing doesn’t mean they need to be losing by this much. It’s been seven games now since Jacksonville last won — which was against Buffalo in shocking fashion. Since then, the Jaguars are 0-6 with five straight losses against the spread. They couldn’t even cover as a 2.5-point underdog last week against the Jets. The only thing the Jacksonville Jaguars have to play for right now is the top pick in next year’s NFL draft.

The New England Patriots enters 9-6 straight up and 9-6 against the spread, going on a seven-game winning streak with seven straight covers before falling in each of the last two weeks. Those losses — to the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills — came in coinflip games judging by the spreads. The Patriots can pick up their 10th win to continue pushing towards the top of the AFC East and at least securing home field in their first playoff game.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 17 matchup between the Jaguars and the Patriots (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a one-to-five-star scale).

Jaguars vs. Patriots Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MAWeather: Rain, 56 degrees

Jaguars vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

The Patriots opened as 16.5-point favorites, and that has not moved for the most part considering 84% of the money and 85% of the tickets are on New England. You can find an even 16 at some sportsbooks.

The total opened at 42 and has dropped a full point to 41. That's where it stands now with some sportsbooks offering the 41.5. It's close to an even split for the money and tickets on the Over/Under.

Jaguars vs. Patriots Picks

Jaguars +16.5 (-110) ???Under 41.5 (-110) ?????

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Jaguars vs. Patriots Predictions

Jaguars +16.5 (-110)

This one pains me to take, but if I have to side somewhere here it’s definitely with all these points. The Under illustrates just what type of game we are going to see here — a low-scoring one — and in that type of scenario it’d be hard for the Patriots to cover.

While the Patriots have covered three times as seven-point favorites, they failed to cover in the one game they were favored by any more than that. It was an early-season three-point win over the Texans, where New England entered as an eight-point favorite.

We’ve seen just how much the Patriots love to run the ball; they rank sixth in run play rate at 46.15%. They even went an entire game earlier this month just throwing the ball three times in a win over Buffalo. Given how bad the Jaguars are at stopping the run, I see no reason why New England would open this one up through the air and run away from Jacksonville.

I’ll also note the Patriots are giving up 121.9 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 23rd in the league. I do think Jacksonville can move the ball with its strong ground game (even without James Robinson) and put up some points.

Under 41.5 (-110)

Because the Jaguars should be enticed to run the ball so much here against a bad rushing defense and the Patriots should have no reason to abandon their beloved rushing attack, I have no choice but to take the Under here.

The above essentially acts as my rationale for the Under, but I’ll expound a bit anyway. The Patriots — to one’s surprise under Bill Belichick — are 24th in pace this year and 26th in pace in the second half of games. When they’re winning by seven or more, they’re 29th out of 32 teams in seconds per play.

Because of that, the Under has cashed seven times this year in 16 games and four times in the last seven weeks. New England knows how to run the ball and it knows how to cover the pass. With both teams running, the Under is an easy call.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Jaguars-Patriots picks made on 12/30/2021 at 9:44 p.m. ET.