Jaguars vs. Colts Picks, Predictions NFL Week 6: Expect Indianapolis to Build Momentum
Two of the most unsightly teams will meet in Indianapolis on Sunday. Check out below for our top Week 6 Jacksonville Jaguars-Indianapolis Colts picks.
After winning what was objectively one of the worst football games in recent memory, the Indianapolis Colts welcome in the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon as they look to build some momentum.
Jacksonville would love to build some momentum of their own after falling to the Eagles and Texans in back-to-back weeks, and are in danger of slipping back into the basement of the NFL.
Here are our Jaguars-Colts NFL football picks for Week 6 (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jaguars vs. Colts Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana, IN
Weather: Indoors
Jaguars vs. Colts Odds
Jaguars vs. Colts Odds Analysis
The Jaguars were initially 1.5-point road dogs before some money pushed them out to two-point underdogs almost across the board. FanDuel remains at 1.5. Jacksonville is drawing 74% of the cash and 60% of the tickets.
Meanwhile, the total is set at 43, with the Under getting 52% of the cash and 58% of the tickets.
Jaguars vs. Colts Picks
- Spread: Colts -2 (-110 via PointsBet) ★★★★★
- Over/Under: Under 42 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
- Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 238.5 pass yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★
Jaguars vs. Colts ATS Pick
Colts -2 ★★★★★
I think the Colts are a far better team than they’re getting credit for in this spot. Sure, they haven’t been able to establish the run with Jonathan Taylor this year like they did in 2021, but they’ve still found some success through the air, periodically.
Indy is ranked seventh in passes per game and 11th in completion percentage, though the Colts have hardly done anything with those throws by ranking dead last in passing DVOA. This is likely due to a tough schedule with the Titans, Broncos and Chiefs putting up a good fight, though this same Jaguars team did blank them in Week 2.
I think we’ll see a different story here with the Colts heading home and with the Jaguars’ defense struggling to get to the quarterback. They are currently 20th in sack rate and a middling 14th in passing yards per game. I’m also thinking this Jaguars team doesn’t know what it’s doing, considering it ranks 13th in rush play percentage but 27th in rushing DVOA.
Jaguars vs. Colts O/U Pick
Under 42 (-107) ★★★★
As I noted above, the Jaguars love to run the rock. The Colts love to stop the run. Indy is second in opponent yards per rush, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed and eighth in rushing touchdowns per game.
Jacksonville continues to be stubborn when it comes to establishing the run, and frankly so does Indianapolis. These are two good rushing defenses which I think will help to grind this game to a screeching halt.
Helping matters, the favorites here are 30th in pace when leading by seven or more, so if the oddsmakers’ choice to win this one does, indeed, establish a lead then it could turn into a low-scoring affair.
Jaguars vs. Colts Prop Pick
Lawrence over 238.5 pass yards (-115) ★★★★
With the above said, the Jaguars rank first in pace when trailing by seven or more, and I think Lawrence will have some catching up to do here. I see this line as pretty low considering his season, and I also think the Colts are somewhat susceptible to the pass considering they’re allowing 6.6 yards per attempt, which is 15th in the league, coupled with an 18th-ranked completion percentage against.
Lawrence has eclipsed this number in three of his five games, with one, ironically a game against the Colts, falling four yards short of this over. Lawrence should be worked to the bone here, at least if the Jaguars are smart, and I like this over.
Where to Bet on Jaguars vs. Colts Picks
Jaguars-Colts picks made 10/14/2022 at 12 p.m. ET
