Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

The disrespect for the Chiefs is alive and well. Remember, this is still a team one year removed from the Super Bowl with one of the best quarterbacks to ever do it. He'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder, too, in Sao Paulo. 

Justin Herbert is 2-6-1 ATS in his last nine starts as an underdog, while Kansas City has won each of its last eight season openers against AFC opponents.

Both defenses were excellent last year, and we should expect the same from the Chiefs and Chargers in 2025. The Chargers have added some offensive weapons, but it may take time to gel. Meanwhile, I'm not too confident in Rashee Rice's health or the team's ability to protect Patrick Mahomes' blindside. 

A pair of defenses that finished in the top third of defensive DVOA last season. The Under cashed in both meetings last year, with the Chiefs winning 17-10 in Los Angeles and 19-17 in Kansas City. 

Much of the Chiefs' defense, the 12th-best in terms of DVOA last season, remains intact. 

Points have been hard to come by in this matchup over the past couple of campaigns. Chiefs versus Chargers contests have gone Under at an 80% clip over their last five meetings, including the last four. Only one game has seen a combined 40-plus points, with the teams failing to reach 30 on numerous occasions.

Any time you get a chance to back the Chiefs in this price range, they’re worth a serious look. Kansas City has won and covered 10 of its last 12 games when it isn’t favored by more than a field goal, excluding a meaningless late-season loss last year at the Denver Broncos when the Chiefs sat most of their starters.

I’m betting on Kelce despite two hard truths. First, the Chargers gave up just two touchdowns to tight ends all of last season. Second, Kelce recorded a career-low three receiving touchdowns last year, none of which came against the Chargers. Perhaps the combination of those factors may explain why Mahomes’ favorite red-zone target has such long odds. Despite his lack of scoring a season ago, Kelce still led the Chiefs in red-zone targets with 25, seven more than their next-best player, Xavier Worthy. Kelce also led the Chiefs in targets inside the 10-yard line with nine. Kelce actually earned more red-zone targets in 2024 than he did in 2023 (19) – it just so happened that fewer turned into actual touchdowns. While some of that may have to do with age, a decent amount is likely to do with bad luck.

Sure, Isiah Pacheco is back from injury. He didn’t look like his usual self after his return last year, and it’s clear that the Chiefs trust fellow running back Kareem Hunt in the red zone. Hunt simply dominated the goal-line work last year, racking up a team-high 42 red-zone carries along with 14 carries inside the five-yard line. Pacheco tallied just eight carries in the red zone and three inside the five. Some of that has to do with him missing time, but he had plenty of chances to retake the goal-line role late in the year. Further, Hunt has some red-zone receiving chops. He was Kansas City’s third-ranked option by both red-zone targets (10) and targets inside the 10-yard line (6).

While the shiny new toy, Omarion Hampton, offers plenty of upside – and is the subject of one of our best Chiefs vs. Chargers player props – it’s possible that his bulkier teammate, Najee Harris, will see more goal-line work. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman famously employed Gus Edwards in such a capacity with the Ravens and Chargers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris were signed to fit that mold.

L.A. doesn't have the receiver talent to run four- or five-receiver sets, so if Roman wants to use both Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen, one will likely have to be on the boundary. That doesn’t favor either of their skill sets. It’s far likelier that these guys spend a healthy chunk of the game rotating, limiting Allen's volume.

The world loves Patrick Mahomes, but let’s not forget that he averaged only 245.5 passing yards per game last year, a career-low mark for him as a starter. On the other side of the field is an intimidating Chargers defense paired with a complementary slow-paced offense.

Herbert threw for 23 touchdowns and totaled just three interceptions last season. As a result, his 7.67 touchdown-to-interception ratio was the eighth-best all-time among quarterbacks who ended a season with at least 15 touchdown passes.

Hampton earned the second-best receiver rating among this year’s crop of rookie running backs and averaged 3.2 receptions and 31.1 receiving yards per game in his final year of college football. While the Chargers may rotate in Najee Harris, Hampton has the better receiving chops.

Hunt scored seven touchdowns last year inside the 20, putting him ahead of Saquon Barkley and tied with Jonathan Taylor. He was especially effective right around the goal line though, with five of his scores coming inside the 5-yard line. He received 56% of the team's carries in that area, which is significant considering Hunt played only 13 games with eight starts, and was given a modest 200 carries overall after joining the team late and being signed midway through September.

Ladd McConkey was given 36.4% of Los Angeles' targets inside the 10-yard line last year. That put him eighth overall during his rookie season, and only a few ticks behind Detroit Lions menace Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Noah Gray scored a career-high five touchdowns last year, and he did it with almost maximum efficiency while getting just eight red-zone targets. He's clearly due for a step back given that nearly flawless run around pay dirt. However, Gray scored more times than Travis Kelce, despite the latter registering 25 red-zone targets.

We're only laying two points against a Falcons team in search of an identity this season? I'm all over Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in this spot. Tampa was an ATS darling last year, going 10-8 (conversely, the Falcons were 6-10), and didn't see much turnover for a team that narrowly lost to the Commanders in the Wild Card round. Atlanta has too many question marks for me right now, play this with confidence.

I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers, who will be hellbent on getting one over on a Jets team from whom he was forced to jettison. That scenario should elicit the best from the wily veteran. 

Meanwhile, the Steelers are acutely aware of what's in Justin Fields' locker. 

We have one of the best scoring defenses in the league last year in the Pittsburgh Steelers going against a team that will be living on the ground. With Justin Fields as QB1, the Jets will be churning the clock all year long, and will find it difficult to score against the strong front-seven of Pittsburgh. 

In Aaron Rodgers’ last two healthy seasons, he finished 25th and 26th in Total QBR. He is also coming off career-lows in yards per attempt (6.7) and yards per dropback (5.8) in 2024 with the Jets. I am not buying a late-career resurgence for Rodgers in Pittsburgh, especially since the team lost George Pickens from a receiving corps that ranked 29th or worse in receiving yards, receptions, and yards after the catch last season.

The Jets' secondary only allowed 18 TD passes last season — only the Bears (17) were stingier. Still, I'm high on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermouth, and expect him to be Aaron Rodgers' security blanket when Pittsburgh gets close to the goal line Sunday.

Freiermouth tied his career high with seven TD catches last year, with four of those coming in the Steelers' final six games — and that was with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields throwing to him.

It's been five years since Aaron Rodgers last threw for 200 yards in a season opener. In fact, the Steelers' new quarterback has eclipsed 203 passing yards in Week 1 just six times in 16 NFL seasons.

Now Rodgers is working with yet another new group of receivers in another new system. He'll also be facing his former team — one that allowed less than 193 passing yards per game in 2024 (fourth-best in the NFL).

Aaron Rodgers averaged career-lows of 6.7 yards per attempt and 5.8 yards per dropback as the Jets quarterback last year. 

I don't expect new Jets quarterback Justin Fields to do much running Sunday against what just might be the NFL's best defense. And history has shown that when Fields doesn't flea the pocket at least 10 times, he doesn't compile a lot of rushing yards.

To that point: In 31 career games in which he's failed to reach double-digit carries, Fields has cleared 44 rushing yards just 11 times.

The Colts might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and they're opening as favorites against a team with playoff aspirations. Miami's secondary could use a facelift, but the addition of Matthew Judon, the return of Jaelen Phillips, and the anchor that is Minkah Fitzpatrick should be enough to stop an offense led by Daniel Jones. I'm letting Tua and Co. take over on their side of the ball. This is a Dolphins W.

The sixth-round rookie is expected to play a significant role for the Dolphins in his NFL debut with De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright both battling injuries this week. The Dolphins are modest underdogs in an indoor game with a 47.5-point Over/Under.

The Dolphins allowed the sixth-most targets to tight ends in 2024. And Warren is coming off a record-setting season at Penn State, where his 104 receptions set a school record, and were tied for second-most among FBS players.

Am I crazy for liking Bryce Young and the Panthers in this matchup? Young finished the season off last year throwing seven touchdowns against zero interceptions, and that offense really seemed to hit its stride. If they can pick up where they left off, this should be an easy cover. I'll be sprinkling on the moneyline here, too. 

Washington is laying just 6.5 points against one of the worst teams in the NFL last season. It'll be all systems go for the Commanders in Week 1 after finally locking up Terry McLaurin, who will be the Batman to Deebo Samuel's Robin this year. The Commanders were a top-six scoring offense a year ago, and only got better in the offseason. They'll be up against a Giants defense that allowed 346 yards per game last year. Look for Jayden Daniels to have his way with a new assortment of toys at his disposal. 

Russell Wilson may not turn New York into Super Bowl contenders, but he should be a lot more competent under center than Daniel Jones. He had 13 completions of 25-plus yards downfield from Weeks 7-18 last season (tied for second-most), and should help the Giants offense complement what is an underrated defense.  

Although it’s unclear who offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will give the bulk of the carries to now that Brian Robinson Jr. is gone, it’s likely to be a healthy mix of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez. JCM flashed home-run speed on a 27-yard breakaway touchdown run against the Bengals in Week 2 of the preseason. His burst score of 132.6 puts him in the 95th percentile. He now gets to play behind a Commanders offensive line that ranked an impressive second in run-block win rate a season ago and just added left tackle Laremy Tunsil.

It's now or never for this Cardinals offense with Kyler Murray at the helm. He has all the weapons to take advantage of an overmatched opponent in Week 1.

New Orleans has a rookie head coach and unproven quarterbacks. Even if they made the right decisions at those crucial spots, the Saints' season could look ugly early on.

The New Orleans Saints' quarterback situation reminds me of Shakespearean tragedy, only without the intrigue. I have no faith in whoever Kellen Moore names as his starting quarterback. While it's a large spread to cover on the road, the Arizona Cardinals have enough weapons to dominate a Saints team that will struggle to score. 

Joe Burrow is healthy, and Ja'Marr Chase has no off-field distractions.  

That's bad news for a Cleveland Browns team that finished last season with a 4-13 ATS record, including 0-2 against the Bengals.

Cincinnati has had some trouble with the Browns in the recent past and certainly struggles with slow starts to the regular season. I like the Browns, led by veteran QB Joe Flacco, to keep this one close at home.

Not much is expected of the Browns this year, but they should at least bring plenty of enthusiasm to the field in their season opener, especially against their in-state division rival. Cleveland has given Burrow plenty of problems throughout his career, winning five of eight matchups and limiting him to an 86.8 passer rating in four games at Huntington Bank Field.

With a healthy Higgins last year, Cincinnati went 8-4 while averaging 28.8 points and 280 passing yards per game. Higgins has touchdowns in four of eight career games against the Cleveland Browns.

The Raiders should be much improved under a new head coach as well. Even at 73 years of age, Pete Carroll should bring plenty of energy to the Silver and Black, especially with quarterback Geno Smith now in town. The best seasons of Smith’s career came under Carroll with the Seattle Seahawks.

When the Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson out of Ohio State, they knew they were getting a world-class athlete, but they couldn’t have expected him to look this good already. Henderson was the story of training camp for the Patriots, and insiders are already projecting him to get the majority of the touches, which can come either via handoff or in the passing game.

The Seattle Seahawks have been terrific in home openers, winning 14 of their last 16. Seattle won its last regular season meeting against the San Francisco 49ers last year as 5.5-point road underdogs, and the 49ers receiving corps starts the season without an injured Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, who is no longer with the team.

Charbonnet looked great in training camp and in his lone preseason appearance. There's been buzz that he could push Kenneth Walker for the Seahawks' RB1 role, and I think he gets off to a great start against a 49ers team that allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league last season.

This represents an incredibly challenging situation for No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward. He faces an away visit in the Mile High City, where the Broncos were 6-2 ATS last season, against one of the league's best defenses. Talk about a baptism of fire. 

There are few prospects more daunting for a rookie signal caller than playing your first regular-season contest against a Denver Broncos defense that last season had the joint-third-best defensive EPA and the fourth-best defensive DVOA. The defense will probably be even better this season, an ominous prospect for Cam Ward and Co. 

Dobbins ran for nine touchdowns last year and is also a threat to score a receiving TD against a Titans defense that struggles to defend running backs in the passing game.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news for Tennessee Titans fans, but Cam Ward’s debut could be seriously ugly. He takes on a stingy Denver Broncos defense that boasts the league’s top cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Alongside him, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has several talented weapons, including safety Brandon Jones, who posted the second-highest pass coverage grade at his position last year.

With Denver likely to hold a comfortable lead in the second half, look for Denver to run the ball down the throat of a Titans defense that ranked 26th against the run in 2024.

Look for Ward to scramble early and often against a fierce Broncos pass rush, especially as he looks to limit turnovers in his NFL debut.

Detroit was the best ATS team in the NFL last season on the road, posting a 7-1 record away from Ford Field. The Lions have not only won in their last three trips to Lambeau Field, but they've also covered, with an average winning margin of 9.33 points per game. Jared Goff is 8-0 ATS in season openers, so I like Dan Campbell's squad to cover.

The highest-scoring offense in the NFL a year ago is somehow an underdog going into Week 1. We will be riding Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs to the bank. Don't miss out.

The Packers are betting favorites at home with a bettor-friendly 47.5-point total. I expect QB Jordan Love to make quick use of his first-round rookie receiver and for Golden to become the true No. 1 threat the team has long missed.

Love has much worse numbers against man than zone coverage, and the Lions played man coverage on 56% of dropbacks last season, the most in the NFL.

Love threw for fewer than 230 yards in his final six games of last season, including just 206 against the Lions. I need Love to prove he's broken out of that funk before I take his Over against a pass defense that was very good before injuries last season.

Jacobs only caught two passes for 13 yards against the Lions in two games last season. Considering he was far from a sure thing in the passing attack, topping 15.5 yards in just 10 of his 18 games, this Under is the right play.

The Packers have always had a great game plan for Gibbs, holding him to 76 total yards or fewer in both regular season meetings.

Gibbs led the NFL with 20 touchdowns last season, and he scored once in each game against Green Bay. Getting this at +600 is too good to pass up, especially when other sportsbooks are offering +260.

The number is set far too low with two of the most explosive offenses in football going head-to-head. With Joe Mixon likely out for Week 1, the Houston faithful will see just how much Nick Chubb has in the tank, while Davante Adams makes his Rams debut. Get set for fireworks in this one.  

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has dealt with an ailing back all training camp. That means Los Angeles is likely to rely on its running game more than usual, but it only ranked 31st in yards per rush a year ago.

The Los Angeles Rams have been late bloomers over the last two seasons while struggling early. Through Weeks 1-9 over the last two seasons, the Rams are 7-10 with their quarterbacks producing a 58 Total QBR and a 1.3 TD:INT ratio. But in Weeks 10-18, Los Angeles is a combined 13-4 over the last two years, and improved its Total QBR and TD:INT ratio to 72 and 4.5, respectively.

John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league as it relates to having his teams prepared for Week 1. The long-time Ravens frontman is 12-5 ATS in opening games during his nearly two decades in Baltimore. Furthermore, Lamar Jackson is the league's second-best quarterback in underdog spots. His 80% cover rate as an underdog trails only Patrick Mahomes (83.3%) among all 32 starters. I'll take the Ravens and the points.

The Ravens are the most balanced team in the league, and are coming off a season where they were the first team in the Super Bowl era with 30-plus passing touchdowns and 30 or more rushing touchdowns in a season.

These two teams played twice last year, and both times they went under this number. The Baltimore Ravens' defense improved over the offseason, adding Jaire Alexander to a vaunted secondary that allowed just 21.2 points per game last year - eighth best in the NFL. The Bills got better, too, adding star pass-rusher Joey Bosa to the front seven.

If history repeats itself, we should have no problem going under this number. I'm expecting the clock to churn with both teams attacking each other on the ground, too. 52.5 points is just too much to cover for Week 1 of the season. 

This is a matchup of the only two teams that had 11 or more 30-point games last season. Josh Allen is coming off a season where he posted an NFL-best and career-high 77 Total QBR. But I expect Lamar Jackson and company to match scores with the Bills, given that the Ravens led the NFL in Offensive Efficiency in the regular season.

The Ravens had much success targeting tight ends in the red zone last year. Their 17 such touchdown receptions led the league, and were eight more than the next-closest team. Baltimore’s tight ends also ranked second in red zone receptions (22) and red zone targets (29). 

Coleman topped 550 yards and had four touchdowns in his rookie season, and he'll now be counted even more as QB Josh Allen's No. 1 option. The Bills and Ravens meet with an Over/Under of 50.5, and there'll be plenty of offense to go around.

I'm a big believer in consistency, and aside from the quarterback position, the organizational consistency in Minnesota is something I believe will translate better into this campaign. The Vikings were one of the league's best cover teams in 2024, and Caleb Williams has struggled ATS as an underdog (5-6).

Both teams boast talented play-callers, but this could be a sloppy Monday night opener for the offenses.

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is making his first-career start on the road in prime time. Meanwhile, Bears QB Caleb Williams had a shaky rookie season in 2024 and faces one of the league's top defenses from a year ago. Minnesota led the league in takeaways and finished fifth in sacks.

Sure both of the offenses are revamped heading into Monday Night Football, but will they be able to go over this number against two of the more elite defenses in the NFL last season? The Vikings were a top-five scoring defense last year, and the Bears only upgraded their 14th-ranked unit from a season ago. With J.J. McCarthy making his debut and Caleb Williams still ironing out some kinks in Week 1, I expect this to go Under the total.

McCarthy makes his regular-season debut on the road in a hostile environment against a Bears defense that last season received the 10th-best coverage rating, according to PFF. The Bears' offense should be immeasurably superior to last year's unit, should also take time to optimize.

Micah Parsons or not, this Washington Commanders offense is rolling into Green Bay with the utmost confidence on the back of Jayden Daniels. While the Pack are a slightly different animal than the New York Giants, who Washington squared off against in Week 1, look for the sixth-ranked offense a year ago to keep this one close if not win outright.

While JJ McCarthy still has some work to do to leave his training wheels behind, I'm still loving this team in this specific matchup. From a defensive standpoint, the Vikings were far and away the better unit, ranking 13th in total defense a year ago against the Falcons' 22nd-ranked defense. That's all we should need for the Minnesota offense to feast.