Early Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction & Opening Odds for International Series: NFL Week 11

My Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction expects Miami to win a second straight game for the first time this season.

Sunday's game from Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network), between Washington and Miami is the last of this season's International Series matchups. The Dolphins are the 1.5 to 2.5-point betting favorite, and the below analysis is part of the NFL predictions for Week 11. 

🏈 Early Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 11.

🐬 Dolphins -1.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Usually, a disclaimer saying "back the Dolphins at your own peril" would accompany any Miami pick. However, there's reason to feel confident about a team I thought would have quit on head coach Mike McDaniel weeks ago.

You don't need any more evidence of their willingness to go to battle for their embattled head coach than a dominant 30-13 victory over a Buffalo Bills team that had the shortest Super Bowl odds entering Week 10. Miami was better in every facet, resembling, if only temporarily, a playoff-caliber team. That has Miami as one of my strongest NFL picks against the spread this week.

While one can never be supremely confident in the Jekyll and Hyde Dolphins, they are facing a forlorn Commanders team that won't have Jayden Daniels at their disposal.

Marcus Mariota is a competent backup, but he clearly isn't at the level the Commanders need to compete, especially with a defense that has allowed more than 400 yards in four straight games. The Detroit Lions accumulated 546 total yards against them in the 44-22 Week 10 rout. The Commanders have lost five in a row and are 1-3 with Mariota as the starter. 

FanDuel is the only one of the best sports betting sites still offering the Dolphins at -1.5. Its -115 odds will profit $8.70 on a winning $10 bet.

Our Mike Spector also backs the Dolphins with his NFL survivor pool picks.

📊 Live Commanders vs. Dolphins odds: Week 11

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 11.

🔢 Commanders vs. Dolphins opening odds 

• Moneyline: Commanders -200 | Dolphins +165
• Spread: Commanders -4.5 (-110) | Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)

↔️ Commanders vs. Dolphins line movement

FanDuel is the only one of the best sports betting apps offering the Dolphins at -1.5. The others are at -2 or -2.5, with DraftKings providing odds of -105 at -2.5. I expect the spread to reach -2.5 across the board by Sunday morning's kickoff. I'd play the bet up to and including -3. 

📈 Commanders vs. Dolphins trends & betting notes: International Series 

• The Commanders have been outscored 154-65 in the last four games
• The Dolphins have alternated wins and losses in the four games since Week 7, being outscored 59-12 in the losses and outscoring opponents 64-23 in the two victories
• Miami is 5-5 ATS
• The Commanders are 3-7 ATS

📺 How to watch Commanders vs. Dolphins: International Series

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
• Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
• Location: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium (Madrid, Spain)
• TV: NFL Network

💡 NFL prime-time picks this week

• Jets vs. Patriots prediction (TNF)
• Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction (Spain)
• Lions vs. Eagles prediction (SNF)
• Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction (MNF)