Bills vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions NFL Week 6: Buffalo Avenges Playoff Loss
The Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the most anticipated game of the year after last year's epic playoff clash. Here are our Bills-Chiefs picks.
Kansas City has knocked Buffalo out of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, including January’s memorable AFC divisional meeting when the Chiefs edged the Bills 42-36 in OT. With both teams off to 4-1 starts to the 2022 campaign, Sunday’s collision at Arrowhead could end up determining which team hosts the other in this year’s postseason.
Will Buffalo exact revenge for last year’s playoff loss, or can K.C. hold serve on its home field?
Let’s break it down in our Bills-Chiefs picks and predictions for NFL Week 6 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Chiefs Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 72 F, 0% chance of precipitation, 12-mph winds
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis
After opening in the pick ’em range, the line has drifted toward Buffalo as the week went on, hitting 3 a few times but never climbing over the key number.
Although Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has never been a home underdog in 42 career starts at Arrowhead, ticket counts on the spread have been nearly 50/50 and 60% of the cash has supported the Bills.
Betting action hasn’t been nearly as balanced on the total, with 92% of tickets and 86% of the handle backing the Over. Yet, the total has gone up just half a point from the 53.5 opener by Friday morning.
Bills vs. Chiefs Picks
Bills vs. Chiefs ATS Pick
Bills -3 (+100) ★★★
Motivation can be an overused narrative in football handicapping, and I’m sure the Chiefs also badly want to win this game as they battle for top spot in the AFC West. But you can’t ignore how gutting the Bills’ playoff loss was last year at Arrowhead, when Buffalo rallied to take a three-point lead with 13 seconds left before the Chiefs kicked a field goal on the final play of regulation and then won in OT.
Buffalo has had this return visit to K.C. circled on its calendar ever since as it looks for some redemption. Speaking of redemption, Bills head coach Sean McDermott is playing up that angle, recently showing his team a documentary of the USA men’s basketball team’s journey to 2008 Olympic gold after a disappointing bronze-medal finish four years earlier. The Bills were also in a similar situation last year when they visited Arrowhead, avenging their 2021 playoff loss with a 38-20 blowout.
Josh Allen and the Bills attack put up 38 points last week against Pittsburgh despite being without three of their receivers and tight end Dawson Knox, and it could have been more if not for two turnovers inside the Steelers’ 5-yard line. Don’t be surprised if the Bills approach the 40s once again this week.
Bills vs. Chiefs O/U Pick
Over 54 (-110) ★★★★★
As square as betting the Over in this game might feel, can you really make a case for betting the Under? These are the two highest-scoring teams in the NFL so far this year, with the Bills also leading the NFL in total yards and passing yards while the Chiefs are fourth in passing and sixth in total yards. These squads have met three times in the last two years, and none of those games featured less than 58 points scored.
Even if this game gets off to a low-scoring start, both teams’ ability to move the ball through the air means they can score points in bunches. We certainly saw that in last year’s playoff meeting, when the Bills and Chiefs combined to score 25 points in the final two minutes of regulation. K.C. also scored 30 points in the final 35 minutes of last week’s game against the Raiders after falling behind 17-0 early.
Finally, both Buffalo and Kansas City are dealing with injuries to several defensive starters that could make them vulnerable. The Bills have been able to get away with playing backup safeties in recent games against the Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins, but that weakness should finally catch up to them against Mahomes.
Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Pick
Davis to score a touchdown (+155) ★★★
After being hampered by an ankle injury throughout the first month of the season, the Bills’ third-year wideout exploded for 171 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s victory over Pittsburgh. Now he returns to Arrowhead, where he set an NFL playoff record with four touchdown catches in last year’s divisional game.
Even after a slow start to the campaign, Davis has gone over his receiving yards prop total in 10 of his last 13 outings going back to last season. MGM sets his receiving yards total at a very reachable 55.5 against K.C., but I’d rather take a shot at the plus-money price in a game where there should be plenty of touchdowns. If you think another multiple-touchdown performance might be in the cards, Davis Over 1.5 touchdowns is available at +900.
Where to Bet on Bills vs Chiefs Picks
Bills-Chiefs picks made 10/14/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET
