NFL Best Bets Week 7: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions
A whopping 10 NFL teams have 3-3 records heading into Week 7, which suggests this is a pivotal week for many around the league trying to get over .500. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 7.
With more information about teams given a six-week sample size, oddsmakers have adjusted, and nine of the 14 games on this week’s slate have point spreads of five or more points.
Check out all of our top NFL Week 7 picks.
Here are our best bets for Week 7’s NFL slate (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Week 7 NFL Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New York Giants (+140) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-165)
- Green Bay Packers (-215) vs. Washington Commanders (+185)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-490) vs. Carolina Panthers (+390)
- Detroit Lions (+260) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-315)
- Atlanta Falcons (+235) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-280)
- Cleveland Browns (+225) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-265)
- Indianapolis Colts (+120) vs. Tennessee Titans (-140)
- New York Jets (+100) vs. Denver Broncos (-120)
- Houston Texans (+240) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-285)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-140) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+120)
- Seattle Seahawks (+210) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-250)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+265) vs. Miami Dolphins (-320)
- Chicago Bears (+300) vs. New England Patriots (-365)
Week 7 NFL Best Bets
- Moneyline: Bengals (-270 via FanDuel) vs. Falcons ★★★★★
- Spread: Jets +1 (-106 via FanDuel) vs. Broncos ★★★★
- Total: Buccaneers-Panthers Under 40.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
- Upset: Giants (+140 via Caesars) vs. Jaguars ★★★
- Player Prop: Aaron Rodgers Under 22.5 completions (-125 via DraftKings) ★★★
Sunday's Top NFL Picks
Moneyline: Bengals (-270)
Joe Burrow has gotten things going lately, with a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his previous four games following a 3:4 rate over the first two weeks. The Bengals have three wins in that span and are 3-0 when Burrow throws at least two touchdowns with no interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase’s emergence last week was a welcomed sight, as he finished his second career game with 100-plus receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to allow a second-half touchdown. That stout defense will come in handy against a Falcons team that ranks fifth in Offensive Efficiency, according to ESPN Analytics, and is tied for the fewest three-and-out drives (six) in the league. The Bengals have outscored opponents 43-15 in the fourth quarter, so we expect them to pull away late even if the game is close over the first 45 minutes.
Spread: Jets +1 (-106)
This spread plummeted from New York +3.5 once concerns over Russell Wilson’s hamstring surfaced. However, New York’s 4-2 start (its best since 2015) is legitimate, and we still find value in this lower number regardless of Wilson’s status.
Over the last three weeks, New York’s pass defense has allowed one touchdown to five interceptions (second-best), has a 79 Efficiency rating (second), and has produced seven takeaways (third). Its 15.7 points per game and 290 yards per game allowed in that span are both fourth-best among all teams. In addition, New York has been equally stout against the run all season, allowing 3.9 yards per rush.
Now the Jets face a Denver team scoring 15.2 points per game (down from 21 last year through six games) while Wilson has a Total QBR of 36 (Broncos quarterbacks last season had a 52 QBR in that span). In addition, the Broncos have an NFL-worst three red-zone touchdowns and entered last week averaging 4.8 yards per play on first down (30th).
Total: Buccaneers-Panthers Under 40.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay has been held to 21 points or fewer in five of six games, tied for the most of any team. It's coming off a game in which it scored one touchdown on four red-zone possessions, and Tom Brady has been held to one or fewer passing touchdowns in five of six. Brady’s eight passing touchdowns are tied for his fewest through six games since 2004. In addition, Tampa Bay’s 15 plays of 20-plus yards are tied for 25th in the league.
The Buccaneers can't even lean on a running game lately, as they have averaged an NFL-worst 67.5 rush yards per game, leading to a 20th-ranked 20.2 points per game (also the fewest in the first six games of Brady’s career).
On the other side, Carolina had seven punts and an interception on the final eight possessions last week in interim head coach Steve Wilks’ first game on the sideline, and we do not expect the Panthers' offense to right the ship this week.
Upset: Giants (+140)
The Giants have already surpassed their win total from last season when they went 4-13. New York came into this year with the task of figuring out if Daniel Jones was the quarterback of the future, and all he has done is lead the team to four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, the most in the NFL.
New York has three wins (most in the NFL) when trailing by 10 or more points this season, proof it is never out of a game. The Giants have the seventh-best scoring defense and fourth-best third-down defense and have allowed the second-fewest rushes and completions combined per game. That is an excellent recipe for a road upset.
Player prop: Rodgers Under 22.5 completions (-125)
Aaron Rodgers’ 38.5 QBR is his lowest ever through six games. In addition, he has been held to fewer than 275 passing yards in seven consecutive games, tying the longest streak of his career.
In Green Bay’s three wins, it has averaged 156.3 rushing yards per game. In its three losses, it has averaged 88.3. Matt LaFleur is a smart head coach, and we expect him to lean on the running game more while the passing game works out its kinks.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL Week 7 best bets made on 10/21/22 at 6:22 a.m.
